Heisy

And there it is

If we want a snowstorm the cmc offers a lot better chance. GFS we have no shot with the shredder sitting over us…


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Cmc still pretty different with its handling of the ULL near Ne in the long range


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Not sure it was mentioned but end of 18z control didn’t have the shredder ULL sitting over us at 144 vs 12z runs. Looked like it was going to form a nice 50/50 though still

Could argue for the main low to be able to come farther N


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I know this storm isn’t really allowed to be talked about here. I do think there was another system in the 90s that had a similar weird phase like this. It’s not impossible but I’m sure we’ll see it be completely different in 12 hours. Most likely scenario is it the southern low just gets swung out to sea with the shredder sitting there





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Yea so I don’t think it’s gonna play out how the euro just spit out. Lol. Almost looks like march 4-6 2001 type vibe with both ULLs merging, but farther South. Still, have to monitor what happens with the shredder and the main wave. Delicate balance like I said before.


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This run is probably a 1/10000000 type progression lol. There’s no way those two waves interact like that at our latitude lol


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Lol common… euro actually phasing both ULLs, this will get wild here…




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Nothing can come N with that sitting there but I don’t think it’ll end up looking like that. Just personal feeling you usually don’t see ULLs that close together like that. Looks goofy


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Euro has that ULL sitting over us, lot different than cmc which is on its own with its handling with that. Idk if any event will be able to make it up to us with that sitting there though….


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Not sure anything will come of it this run. A lot of the energy from our wave got left behind in the other trough still out in the PAC. Too weak this run


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I don’t think the 12z GFS will have as strong of a shredder over us based on what I’m seeing around 132 hours


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Euro 240....hmmmmm.  Not bad..could be better

One of wildest H5 runs I’ve seen in a while




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First wave likely not going to be able to come N if that shredder ULL is there, but gfs eventually looks like this which is a terrific look


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Hard to get anything to our latitude with these shredders, but we’ll see what happens




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Heiny is on the case....locked on to this.

End of control, (just an extension of the OP) imo looks better for diver….




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Gulf of Maine, developed a little later than GFS but definitely in the same ballpark. Every winter we get a chance or 2 at something extreme happening. Most of the time something screws it up, or timing is slightly off, but it’s on the table at least on two of the global so we got a shot!


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Wow, GFS support to a degree heh


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Ridge placed a little E this run, this thing should still get funky though


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Euro not as aggro as the GFS but it does have the diving shortwave, see what it does here…


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Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS
 

If you're a winter storm enthusiast ... you may want to pay attention to how the 31st/3rd period modulates over future runs...
Having  a recurring theme in the runs ( note the 00z GGEM, too ) of a powerful diving JB jet, while still loading ( altho less, still positive) +PNA tendencies across the continental footprint ... I mean, it's just not dismissible quite yet that something would evolve.  That's been occasionally hinted across all of them at one point or another, recently.  Euro... Even extrapolating the ICON. 
This was always a 24th thru the 5th period of interest fwiw.

The E MA melts would be interesting