Heisy

Pretty wild pattern. Curious how it plays out once we get closer




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Gfs is falling in love with this N/S diver…. See if it spins anything up


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End of 18z GEFS still following weeklies pretty closely…

We take




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I mean the weeklies are about as perfect as you could ask for lol. It starts with the split flow pattern we see at the end of the 12z eps today and it’s literally deep winter thru the end of the run. Pretty sick. Really hope it’s even close to right we’ll end the season above average if so no doubt


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Nice... and this is entirely before the "good" pattern starting Feb 8-12ish??

We’re a long way out, but Feb 8-10 has a threat in it similarly to how the control did it. Split flow the STJ is going to undercut the central conus/Canada ridge. 12z GFS had a similar evolution a few days later. We can def score in this type of pattern. Would be a great sign if we do!


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There’s also a second event towards day 10. N/S clipper like diver. Gfs has been on this a few runs now. Euro had it last night. 12z euro has this wave as well… see what it does with it


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The compressed heights from the N/S slows down the main trough forces slower development. Cmc and icon were in general agree. This could also be the euro going crazy with the ccb aspect, but certainly the trend we want to see


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If you look at the ensemble members there have been members that had this solution. It’s definitely on the table.


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12z euro coming in with even lower heughts out ahead of the low…


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Ukie lol

Hey ant, definitely could be NYCs largest event of the year if things break right. Looks like a sloppy event with borderline temps. Cmc has been near the top of verification skills lately so don’t doubt it too much.

PS, Like the Philly sub here, didn’t most NYC posters migrate to another forum?


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Things still on track today. Pattern chasing is boring but it’s all we got.

-EPO signal




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Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.

Yea definitely a positive to see that regardless of the range. It’s also good to see the OP forming that -epo ridge just like the weeklies



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Op generally looks like ensembles now. The question happens few days after this time period. Does -epo pop, does the ridge heights migrate to AO territory etc. it’s what the weeklies do so that’s the hope



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OP gfs has a poleward ridge day 7 which ends up muting the warm up because shortwaves keep shooting down towards NE. Its own ensembles don’t really have that (they have a ridge but not as far N) and euro camp doesn’t so I’d be careful with rushing things. Maybe the first week of Feb isn’t as warm as we think, but we’ll see…




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Look at difference between euro and gfs with the ridge. GFS’s poleward ridge would actually result in shortwaves diving SE towards NE which would mute any warm up in early Feb. it’s probably wrong though….

Regardless, Im personally jacked up for 2nd half of Feb into first week of March. I’ll die on that cliff





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It’s been the same progression run after run now. We just have to hope once we get in range to the main ensembles they do the same.

We from this…. Which is what end of ensembles look currently, to (second image) few days later.



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Talk about a jump… 00z vs 12z lol





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EPS following the OP..


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N/S builds in HP eventually. This run sped southern stream up (because it was also stronger and more aggressive)


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Eek, maybe too wrapped up ha


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Incoming
This might be an interior hit


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Gotta see if the N/S can dive down to play a role here or it’ll be too wrapped up


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Incoming
This might be an interior hit


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End of cmc ensembles. Ridge has rolled through and poleward, we’re building in the right places here and getting ready to rock and roll imo


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06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.

A lot comes down to that N/S piece up in Canada. Euro rides that more W to E. GFS dives it farther SE which kind of pushes low farther SE. Tentative balance


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End of the 6z control eps, this is probably a big interior hit. There were some big hits on the 00z eps for interior. You have that piece diving down from Canada which should keep the main low far enough S to not run too far inland. Timing of the waves is important here. Interest peeked for 12z, I could use a chase. Posting control because it’s pretty much the OP extrapolated








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