Heisy

the tpv placement on the cmc allows for it to phase once offshore, this actually has effects on the pattern post the event. CMC has a great setup at the end of its run because of this. 

It has another snow event on the 1st

Just now, psuhoffman said:

still looks kinda fringy for us but we have a LOT of time for that last minute north adjustment.  It still happens its just only 50/100 miles not 500 miles like in the past.  

Yeah the positive tilt of annoyance. So close to a MECS 

Note, like I said gfs and cmc differ on placement of tpv. 

trying to post cmc pics, but its a big hit

CMC and GFS differ greatly on placement of that little tpv lobe in canada fwiw. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I’ve noticed a tendency to linger the Early week wave in the western Atlantic. Not thrilled with that. Was it always this difficult? Lol 

whoa 

This looks pretty good 

gfs might be better than its 6z run,. better heights ahead, of course it slowed down the first system so that might have an effect too, well see

Id also love for the energy behind the 28th system to slow down. Let there be better ridging behind the system. It's in a sparse sampling region so hopefully that trends favorably as well. 

16 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see

mentioned this yesterday, latitude latitude latitude, other factors of course, but good start on Icon. I have little hope here in philly, but would love to be able to chase to VA

On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see

I never thought I’d have to storm chase to friggin Dave Tolerris’a house this year. Gotta do what ya gotta do sometimes

If we can get that ridge behind the 28th event slightly west we’re in business. If it can just neg tilt a little bit there should be some good precip nw of the shortwave, there’s a lot of ridging in front of it too but the hp saves us. 

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Reminds me more of 1996.  

Haha every time a model spits out decent snow it doesn’t have to be compared to 96 fellas....was 79 pd1 I’m blanking out. Was it that small angry small closed off ULL that crushed dc? If so yeah it has more similarities to that.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Inverted trough which draws moisture NW but also warmth. It’s likely at that range wrong and the low should just be adjusted NW instead of having that string out low along the trough.  With a better closed low but further up the trough we get the moisture but without the warmth surging among the inverted trough unimpeded. Way too far out for those kinds of meso details. 

Gfs also shifted that Tpv westward in Canada. Ukie Looked decent at 144

6z euro vs 00z. Looks like a touch more ridging & a slightly stronger main wave

49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep...long ways to go. I just wish I had more time to track this storm  . Been slammed at work . Quick peak early in the morning.  Quick peak around lunch then after work . Working Construction makes it tougher anyway but smart phones have helped .  Doesn't seem  long ago I had to wait till I got home to check things on the computer . 

I’m a painter but I say screw it. I end up refreshing the gfs and euro after every roll and brush stroke.

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me.

The isobars are more sheared out around the L and you can see the secondary forming quicker, but idk if that’s a product of a faster shortwave or not. There does seem to be less HP wedging into Ne though.

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a strong ass primary trying to drive into that block. Banana high over top of it at the surface . 

This run was a lot different in SE Canada vs 00z

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How bad was the UK?  Hopefully not as far north as the CMC!

It’s been too far north recently at this range so I wouldn’t sweat it that much, concerns are valid. Let’s hope a good euro run

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How bad was the UK?  Hopefully not as far north as the CMC!

Farther N, but not as bad as the crazy 00z run

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Better 

You said it earlier for this one,  For dc you really need the right balance of the wave being strong enough but not gaining too much latitude because there really isn’t much cad ahead. Now the 29th event has a much better cad look because you already have NS confluence ahead of it, but that one has issues with being strong enough with a fast flow behind it. I’m just as frustrated here in philly. I expect the euro to Come north but my guess is not as much as Ukie or cmc. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What a boring winter for alot of people in the northeast especially near the coast.  The NAO and AO have been negative for a while and nothing to show for it. The favorable pattern for this month has turned into a joke.

 

Give me a - EPO and - AO pattern anyday  over a - AO and - NAO pattern.

 

This looks like it would favor NE as we head into feb/March...

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The setup has some similarities. That was a nino so a healthier STJ. This will hit a brick wall similar to how that one did. Similar blocking. 

Hopefully we get to call it baby snowmageddon or junior? I’m in Philly but I’d def chase to W VA if euro is right. This H5 of feb 3 2010 but you can see the storm forming in southwest just like this one. Good point on the nino stj. Night. Hopefully another good day tomorrow.