Heisy

Looks like bulk of heavy stuff staying SE of city....Wouldn’t be shocked if some people in NJ see 2-3” if its frozen

EPS looks like it is picking up on this Day 7-8 event now as well...all comes down to timing and positioning of the front...and spacing of course. 

GFS was almost a bigger event too, some energy of the trailing energy got sheared out lol...

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

no update on the UKMET yet?

It came NW, has low over Philly at 72 hours. Not sure if any front or back end frozen though. 

It comes out on the French sideways site...it does look NW of 00z run but still SE of CMC/GFS by a good bit IMO...tough to tell on those maps though

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That is a text book SECS.  Would love to see a clean solution like that just once this season. Its the only game in CONUS that day. 

It’s a classic look, but we don’t get there classically. The GFS is almost like an extremely delayed Anafront lol....Wave develops on the frontal boundary. 

3z SREF & 6z NAM with a jump S fwiw, out of range of course. WIll be fun to see NAM thermals once we get closer. 

Ukie out on the sideways French site yet? 

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

0z UK isn't showing yet on CMC site.

There’s some French site that people use that comes out about a half hour before other sites. 

Yeah, looks like the wave took too long to come E here so the HP is starting to head East into an unfavorable spot....Something to keep an eye on if the weekend event is a Rainer, which is looking more and more likely. 

Lol, almost looks like a repeat of the weekend event. Would need the main shortwave to be a little faster to take advantage of the transient 50/50 and HP or it would cut again because of location of W Ridge IMO 

1047 HP wedged over W NY....Only negative here is the W Ridge not in a great spot, but the CAD should hold here 

While everyone is focused on the weekend storm, check out the GFS @ 150 hrs...awesome spot for TPV and positive tilted wave heading E, HP in great spot....

RGEM looks really impressive at 48 hours. Curious to see if CMC is a decent event for Friday system

The wind with this event could make things even more fun. 

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

These things always trend south.  

Idk, Normally when you have a wave this strong around N Texas and a HP that has to chase and rush in I would tend to like the chances for interior locations...Could be my first chase in a while if I can afford it because I do think someone in the all-snow portion of this storm will see over 2 feet easy. This baby is probably going to have a lot of wind too, look at all those isobars. 

Does that SV high res map not take sleet and freezing rain into consideration? Curious how much precip falls as snow 

That little pivot around noon today should be real fun for a lot of you guys. Really jealous right now. You guys deserve it though. Closing in on an inch here in Philly. Btw, can I change my username to SaintNick or Folesadelphia? 

Anyone of you have an open guest room I can come storm chase to!? Enjoy tonight’s event. 

Ill take the EURO’s southern solution over a NW Rainer trend since those seem to never trend back.

Like Bob said with this setup expect some crazy HECS solutions this week on the models. 

Just pointing out that the GFS and FV3 show a kind of Anafrontal situation. They both ride out a low out ahead of the trough, and then the HP builds in and a new low forms at the base of the trough. 

00z EURO looks like another bomb Day 7-9...cold presses in just in time. Still close to a cutter solution if timing is off though. 

27 minutes ago, redskinsnut said:

I see thank you

Because it depends on if the northern branch shortwave gets out ahead of the main storm. Bad timing and you don’t build the HP in the ideal spot and heights get pumped out ahead of the low. The Euro OP is pretty much the best case scenario and what can happen if things break right. 

This event will likely come down to if we can get the northern branch shortwave/ULL out ahead of the main shortwave. Get the HP to build in behind it. This would easily cut if the timing is off. I do think this is the best shot at the “big one” this winter. 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I was actually be more serious than troll...

 

I actually think the EPS pattern would be ‘okay’, especially if you got the PV to sink a bit S. You could end up with an overrunning pattern. You wont get big MECS with this look, but you could get ice/thump type events if it worked out on timing 

1 hour ago, NoVaWx said:

That one storm idk how many years ago was supposed to bring 4-8 up until onset then went to pa instead and we got rain/sleet. Still holding hope for accumulating snow especially in a nino. 100 mile shift is all it takes and we’ve seen that happen we can get as much as Richmond is supposed to

As a Philadelphian the one recent now cast event that bumped N on the day of the event was the infamous Eagles - Lions snow game. That was supposed to be a DC event with flurries up here.