Heisy

I can’t compare to 6z, but compared to the ancient 00z looks like a stronger ULL. Bombing a little faster

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps Carson can give you a 12 pack of turnovers for the road trip........

I really need to change my username, trust me I’ll get around to it. Maybe JalenHurtsadelphia? Or back to icez idk.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Mine as well wait till the Euro comes out

Yeah definitely. That’s the plan anyway. Won’t be able to actually leave for 2 hours or so...Though I’ve been burned on two chases by the euro. 2013 I went to C MA while CT got the best goods. 2015 went to RI while C MA got raked. 

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Make sure to tour the turtle tank.......they have to pay me to stay there .......

When we arrived the motel office was locked Tim had put the key to one of two reserved rooms on a bulletin board and we were told to call upon arrival. I called and he arrived quickly to get us checked into the second room. First, I was overcharged for 2 nights, 2 rooms when I had reserved 2 rooms, 1 night - an honest mistake I think, but speaks to the lack of attention to detail. The first room we were assigned had a strong smell of smoke, Tim noted all rooms are nonsmoking, but did accomodate and move us to a different room. The "poolside" rooms are dark and dingy - I'm assuming it had been cleaned, but everything is so dated it hardly looks/feels clean. And there are large turtles in a not-very-clean tank in the "lobby" area Worst part was no hot water in the morning -…

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Lol, awesome can’t wait. I still could change my mind on local you guys are scaring me. Bed bugs and turtles. Awesome. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice, enjoy....wish we still had my dad's place at Rock N' Birch haha

The other place I was contemplating was the Mapes at Warner in Warner Nh. Had good reviews and price was good. Little farther N 

6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Good luck not scoring bedbugs.

Lol....yeah I’ll be doing a full sweep of the room. I could find another place too that has better rating idk

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, GFS will be too warm...I will trade the more eastern tracks for more development. Dynamics will be more valuable than that few miles of longitude.

I booked a room at Henniker Motel. I’d rather have elevation. Getting a few things done and heading out. Excited. Hope I can score a foot plus out of this.

13 minutes ago, tunafish said:

That's a good call.  Henniker, NH.  You can get there via 202, which is essentially a one-lane highway.  I wouldn't advise going up to Pats Peak in a sports car.  The roads to get there are winding.  "Downtown" Henniker might be good enough.  You can walk around there, too, by the river.

Yeah once I’m at the hotel/motel I’ll just be walking. I’ll bring some food etc. let me check out some places in Henniker. Thanks all I got a couple great recommendations. Now let’s hope the RGEMs temps are wrong lol. 

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

Starting to change my mind again. Lol. I can’t fooking resist tightly packed isobars. Give me a good spot in southern New Hampshire near interstate would appreciate it

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem has some funny looking clown maps with that warmish low level

 

It looks almost identical to those euro wx snow maps 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s too stretched out. Need more of the energy consolidated back in IN/KY. It’s not far off. 

Factoring in 3 shortwaves to phase is likely going to reek havoc on the models. Would like to have a hit tonight or 6z on one global though. 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The hrrr does. Starting to think those snow maps that Ray screenshots off his work computer are looking more realistic then all the other vendor maps.

 

Yeah but those snow maps weren’t because of complete lack of precip like the NAM. They were a temp issue

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^important differences between those HH euro and GFS runs. Euro slower with the shortwave and more separation between it and the weaker kicker in central Canada. Get tomorrow’s storm near where the gfs has it and game on...

Which is certainly possible. Every model is trending East and faster it seems. 

1 hour ago, wizard021 said:

 Pa

Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm.

There’s not enough spacing here. Yeah you could see it trend closer to the coast, but I don’t see any chances for some kind of major trend. At least one model would be showing a hit with it if there was potential at this range in my opinion. 

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Early next week is a little more separation from being something. 

I think if we cash we would need a situation where the northern stream races ahead and lays down some fresh cold air with a light rain event for a follow up wave. Can get a solid hit with an active pattern that way.

I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly

00z icon still looks like it’s going to be amped like 18z...we’ll see. A lot has to do with the tilt of the ULL obviously. 00z NAM, GFS much more neutral and positive until too late. 

On 12/1/2020 at 9:10 AM, ChescoWx said:

We just missed finishing (in a virtual tie but losing the rounding game) for the Warmest November on record with an average reading of 50.06 vs the all-time record from 1931 of 50.10

I don’t pay attention too much to records, but it seems all we ever see are record highs. Record lows only come in spurts it seems like a night or day. When is the last month during a cold season where the month was near top 5 or even 10 record low?

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shades of last 2 winters where the GEFS led the way with the EPS often dangling unicorns then slowly caving. 

Yep I really don’t take any value in Long range euro runs anymore. 

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first storm for the upgraded HRRR once we get within its effective range,

 

Awesome thanks for the info had no clue. If we get some model agreement by 12z tomorrow on something similar to a 18z EURO or NAM situation then I’m contemplating a road trip. I hate making trips though where storm precip type and track are in question.

3 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What is happening here?. Looking likes warm warm in the East mid month. 

 

There’s likely a brief warmup before the next cold intrusion mid month. Question is if we can get blocking

Yes sir. Track so far looks about a perfect a balance you can get for this storm. Colder confluence push, obviously the NAM though, but a nice trend towards euro

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015.

Yeah gotta hope we see some consistency with that look from the 6z GfS because that’s a damn nice looking block. Models are going to vary though a lot until they get a good hold in this next event

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of model chaos going on with this storm. The American guidance is now showing its progressive bias. 

True, but we still can’t discount the idea of a weak wave since it has support and the EUROs medium skill just seems crappy anymore.