Heisy

I’ll take the Rgem, anything that shows south is a positive guys trust me. 

Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. 

The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772

Yeah it would be nice, however check out DTs latest video. He showed the snow it had forecasted for southeast earlier this week. In less than 3 runs it completely shifted from like nothing to a hit 1-2 days out. That model has burned me big time when chasing storms.

I told myself after I didn’t go up to bgm that I will never not trust the EPS near game time, ever again. 
 

that being said, please come south NAM

Just now, Newman said:

Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29

The first weenie ledge of my life. Was the first year I learned how to look at the models (AVN, EURO once a day, NGM, ETA etc) euro and eta backed off and sent it north but AVN kept hanging on. Since AVN out performed the ETA in the dec 30 2000 storm and the earlier December southeast event Mets hanged onto it to their doom. 

In my view 6z eps has less expansive precip than 00z up near pa N border and just increased inside the ccb 

Just now, pitmd said:

At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup?  

 

Honestly never lol. Probably the model runs Monday 6z. I’ve storm chased enough storms to know there is never consensus until the storm is on top of us 

This setup is also slightly abnormal. Precip will explode over the region instead of developing farther south and expanding north. You can see that with the dry slot Over DE. If it forms too far N like NAM city is fooked for 12”, would be more like 4-8 From waa snows 

Just now, MJO812 said:

February looks wild 

Yeah def some opportunity 

Just now, MJO812 said:

The precip just expands

Eh, if you push that strong of a ccb band that far north there will be subsidence on the south side. I’m not complaining about the run verbatim, it just gets scary if you factor normal nw trend ticks we usually see

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z Euro holds serve for those wondering. 12-16" widespread

It pushes the ccb north though, still at a range where could see it keep ticking N

Look at that stinger from md up through poconos etc. that ccb needs to chill now though worried about further nw ticks

If that ccb band pushes nw it’ll also push the mix line south of it at the height. Philly 6-12 is fair atm, burbs 10-20, we need to survive one more day of runs, if we’re good by 00z tonight let’s roll. 

Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking

It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. 

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Some of these models have periods of light snow all day on Tuesday and that would just be amazing after getting a foot or more of snow. Love the mood flakes after a big event.

CMC wrap around is insane there’s flurries 1am Wednesday haha

2016 vibes for city, fgen sets pivot nw could be an issue, still would do great though, but March 58 vibes west and northwest. Someone might hit 3 feet there if these trends continue. I will Be chasing anyway so Idc lol

Very 2016esque vibes with the ccb band forming Nw on mesos. 

Epic euro run. It’s still snowing there at the end of the run. I’m all in

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure if posted (no time to keep up, lol), but I like these regional maps best - people should also note that they're only through 7 pm Monday...

 

 

My guess is if we see the euro go up, those maps will increase too

For my northeast Philly first call, (i always do%s until game day)

40% 8-12

40% 4-8

10% <4

10% >12

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

0z tonight we will have our final consensus. Looks like models, while having subtle differences with confluence, vort, and the trough... are definitely converging on a solution envelop. 

our typical fears as mid atlantic residents are alive and well here.... will the primary transfer be clean, will it be far enough south, and will h5/h7 pass by and then close in a favorable position near CHO to allow the precip shield to blossom on the NW flank and not just firehose up into Delaware / NJ. 
 

NYC, NJ, and coastal NE will score big from this. I’ve lived in a thousand times up  that way and I’ve said it for nearly a week - this has NYC Miller b special written all over it. That being said, we can cash on 6-12+ Type storm even with nyc being jacked if the cards fall into place on the transfer. 
 

Tonight’s 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS will be extremely key 

It’s never final consensus. I mean we’re at the stage where we can start talking about totals, but it’s still early. On our forum someone posted discussion back from 2016. Just 48 hours out the euro didn’t crush the nw Philly burbs and finally as the storm was literally starting it shifted N

Just now, RedSky said:

ECM Ensembles are interesting and say anything is still possible. Feast or famine most of them are big hits or weak sauce. 

 

You got the indies and control?

Just a heads up but HM on phillywx mentioned in a post last night saying ratios may actually not be good. He said it was too soon to say, but just throwing it out there. Has to do with the Fgen forcing etc I don’t want to copy his post without his permission though since it wasn’t a call just interesting discussion 

It kind of is similar to NAM with evolution where the h7 low is farther N once it spins near the coast you get the coastal ccb which rakes NJ