Heisy

3 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

i just cannot believe these snow maps. I all my years on this forum, I have never seen a clown map show such high snow totals. Even we get half of this, it is an ass kicking storm event with many hours of blizzard/whiteout  condition as and record setting hourly snowfall rates and convective ( thunders snow) banding.  This will be a storm to remember like 93 and 96 if it pans out. 

 

This doesn’t have the duration or strength even close to either of them. The qpf maps will be too Juiced. I’m excited too, but I think 24” Max is where expectations should be. 

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea a 10-12 hour storm it's had to see producing these kinds of totals honestly but the rates on the CMC were extreme in these areas.

Yeah but you have to be realistic too. This isn’t a monster closed off ULL. I think the Max well see from whoever jackpots is like 24” but I could be wrong

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Comparing the pressure pattern (how are the isobars oriented) and the H5 heights, it is significantly more robust than the GFS. 

It does seem slower though too when compared to the cmc for example 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

UKIE at 72

That looks good I think

I agree that looks perfect in my eyes. On precip maps va getting crushes on that frame 

Ukie at 72,looks good when compared to cmc for example. Not 100% sure since it seems slower as well

17 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

I want to chase this but it’s gonna be stressful trying to plan ahead to setup near best banding. Will have to make a decision by Tuesday.

I’m chasing from Philly. I can’t turn down an hour drive to see 2 feet

I think tonight’s cmc is the most realistic outcome 

Throw out the GFS. That isn’t happening. In fact if the snow map looks anything like tonight’s run I’ll video tape me running nude down broad street. Philly will be in that 5-10 range most likely. Their biggest issue will be subsidence/mix. In fact I’d venture to say the city will see heavier snow rates in the front end of the storm than during the peak. There’s going to Be many jealous posters on here most likely during Wednesday night. Not that 5-10 is bad at all lol. Just sayin
 

Gfs is a joke. I live in philly you’d think I’d be happy. I’d rather it be the other way around. All I care about is the NAM within 36 hours and the euro. I look at other models for amusement. 

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know what would be kind of funny or interesting…? Is if the GFS never saw it – like… Even in now casting it comes out with that model run and it still has that painted like that when it’s snowing ass plus plus almost to Rutland Vermont

I wonder if that’s ever happened

Yeah december 30 2000 in Washington DC lol. Though it was a different model back then

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol so bizarre. It was definitely more amped through like 48 or 54h. I thought for sure it was coming north this run. 

I think it’s the bias of placing lows too far SE. idk why you guys are even worried tbh. I’d rather be in Boston than philly right now by a long shot. 

Black and white maps of cmc look even more intense with H5

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

The GFS may be the only model giving D.C. to Philadelphia a big snowstorm. The rest of the models are mostly North of them. Incredible!

I mean not really, the euro crushed us at 18z with close to 15-20” . If you mean the Max zone then yeah 

Just now, Ji said:

I'm over it. Looking forward to January

Agreed. What a waste of a storm. Can’t even enjoy any good NAM runs, next! 

7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The Winter Storm Watch (I initially figured it was for tomorrow and would be converted to a WWA but this was for the Wednesday storm) -

 

 

 

Impressively early. There’s just too much model agreement on the large scale features to not dO it.

Where’s Ji with the JMA because it is the most south of any model looks like lol

4 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Noticed this wonky stripe through the corridor on the run to run tab on weatherbell for the 850s. Take this out and it’s a cleaner regional improvement in upper level temps. 

This is on a lot of guidance. Think it has to do with how the ULLs are being stacked. Looking like a less beefy 2016 here in Philly where we get some snow and then the deformation zone heads NW 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

We were told that’s the low resolution map.  Someone should post more ukmet details 

Yeah ukie barely has an inch in philly so you get the idea 

19 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I think the heavy R/S line may end up being over D.C.

where D.C will get around 10'' or less than 3''.

My money is on the GFS. 

I’ll take that bet  . GFS will most likely play catch up the entire event. 

Ukie looks like it’d smash you guys hard

How many times does the gfs do this in big storms. It’ll catch up with other models eventually. You guys are fine up there. Eps destroys the GFS with QPF at least down here in Philly. I’m probably headed to Allentown or something. 

Ukie

16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day.

It’s out on SV

Anyone in the far Burbs got a place I could come stay at and chase?!