Heisy

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM still not biting on Monday. 

The Canadian and rgem have been steadfast on that. 

15 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Connecticut is a two hour drive from Philly. You don't have to go all the way to northern New England to get in on the action.

Yeah I know i was being sarcastic, and I’m in like 3 hour sleep. Will be interesting where the Max snowfall radius on the models moves. Curious if Boston does better than places like NE Pa when all is said and done. Lots of those tucked members are worrisome

Ugh, I like New England, but you guys really gonna make me drive 7 hours again? Thanks aholes 

Man a lot of those EPS lows are way too tucked in for my liking. We need that trend to stop immediately

Yep. Climo for the city will be like 6-10” then mix. Someone NW of the city will see 2 feet minimum. Two runs in a row the euro has this crazy pivot precip shield. Those are signs of the big ones. This is an interior Pa jackpot storm,  but I hope I’m wrong and we see SE trend today. 

Down here in Philly this is looking more typical. A lot of these big ones we max out around 8-10” and then mix/dry slot. I really don’t want to chase, but once we get closer I might have to if some of these crazy totals continue being shown. 

You guys recall any winters that had big mid December storms that didn’t end up being great seasons?

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Starts running around 12:50 but yeah, that's next on deck. 

Haven't seen it yet but that's good. 

@Ellinwood said it earlier today and I couldn't agree more. We're shaken by the recent disasters but this is about as good a look as we can get. It's not model hype, it's a great look synoptically that's showing up on virtually all the operationals and ensembles. Let's bring it home. 

Yeah i feel like if this was  2010 we’d be counting the inches already. It’s hard to not look at the negatives, but when you take a step back we can’t ask for much more. Now I’m going to be pulling 4 hour sleep for a week and then sleep through the storm like I always do

Just now, HighStakes said:

I thought so too.

Idk at H5 height lines seemed farther N. Sorry I’m just trying to nitpick anything that could go wrong loo

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Gorgeous 50/50 this run. 

Yeah but confluence was worst ironically. Kind of worried if the gfs didn’t string it out would have tracked farther NW. If that idea holds might not bode well

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't .

Yeah we have a good shot for sure, but gun to my head id rather be like NW NJ or poconos right now.

Just now, weathafella said:

I think PHL does well mid week.

Yeah I think we got our best shot in 2 years for 6+, but we’ll see...all of a sudden Monday is trending snowier and snowier even maybe into the city as well.

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big week incoming.  Chicago trip back delayed until the pattern craps out.

My kind of weenie. I’m already trying to figure out a way to get out of work midweek if I have to travel to poconos from Philly or something

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think the reason we are seeing the snow now is the more amped solutions are producing heavier rates. Where the 850 temps were good before....and it was light rain...now its heavy snow

Well I think it’s also the timing of the northern branch too

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Seems too aggressive...

It’s wrong for the city. Maybe some snow in the normal elevated burbs, butbIt’s showing snow with temps above freezing at 925 etc

50/50 didn’t seem as strong as 12z on the 18z euro & and eps, but the main shortwave was slightly more positively tilted 

It’s all downhill from here on that run lmao

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, same here, but the key is to not clog up the thread with reactionary BS on a storm 6 days out. 

Yeah that’s amateur stuff, but we all gotta admit when we first got hooked on this hobby we did the same thing lol. 

I’d prefer not to have to chase this one, but if there’s a foot forecasted in less than a 7 hour drive count me in.

Idk about you guys,  but I enjoy the tracking and model watching sometimes even more than the damn events themselves. So yeah, I’m already set for 12z 

Stormvistas snowmap way less since it’s probably more realistic with temps, but well see could trend better

12 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

18z  GEFS  is still  looking very  good  and  MUCH  different from  the   op GFS  AT 18Z

  this  tells me... and this is just   NY view  ...fell   free to   dispute it... but  this  tells me that  the  op GFS   runs are having its  usual issues  with
  PTJ/ STJ  interactions

18z EPS looks real nice at H5 @ 144 fwiw

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think we need the primary in TN/KY..OH no bueno for our latitude. 

You can still get thumps, but I agree for major snows that is where you want it with hybrids.

3 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  AT THIS   RANGE  THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS ARE 

•  ensembles 
•  and does the op  run MATCH  the ensemble  mean ( or close  to it )

Dave what do you think about this first storm for early week sneaking up on a few people? Cold air an issue, but maybe people on the fringe of the precip could do well.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Jeez, talk about boom or bust. What is producing those big snow events? 

We saw how the last NE storm trended... more and more energy was held back and phasing occurred...this is a possibility here as well. Icon, while warm, has been steadfast in showing a quick hitting storm....rgem 18z out of its range but at 84 looked really juicy. It does look like the mean is being a bit skewed by a few members though