Heisy

18z icon looked jacked up at 120 hrs hotdog.jpg

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Anyone have EUROWX snowfall map, that was most accurate last storm.

Stormvista was too and it’s similar to weatherbell fwiw 

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't for get the RNA....should be a mainly NE deal.

Yeah true, still if I only have to chase to the poconos that’s fine by me haha...regardless 6z Eps best run of the winter on a pure threat basis so far

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hurtzadelphia?

Haha I want to go back to my original username, icez, but I forget how to change usernames. 6z Eps should be interesting with those changes at H5

At 90 hours there’s almost a phase on the 6z euro while the 00z euro had the 2 branches well apart. 12z could be very interesting if this trend continues. I’m a bit low confidence on cold air being available for coastal plain on the mid week storm, but the end of the week storm different story maybe.

6z euro at 90 hours is more robust with that follow up event. It is also diving the northern branch farther south which could end up phasing. Imo the stronger this first event trends the better cold air in place for the day 7 event.

5 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yes. There is no cold air. Maybe some wrap around snow. The surface is torched 

Yeah on a OP model 7 days out...we have a block and a potential 50/50. This is the best setup of the season so far. It actually has the ingredients. It could end up rain, but I think it trends colder and farther south right now. Could be dead wrong but we’ll see. Regardless, first legit winter storm to track imo.

3 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

how does it compare to weatherbell and other paid sites? Does it have UKMET 6hr qpf/mslp panels? i also relaly miss the soundings for the ECMWF on pivotal its behind a paywall now. 

You also get the 6z 18z euro which pivotal doesn’t have yet. I love stormvistas interface for some reason. Images load faster etc

I believe with the block and the 50/50 low this storm will trend farther south as we move closer. Aka it will be colder. Think this is the first philly to Boston storm of the year. Well see

Big 50/50 type low on GFS at 150 hrs with a beautiful Block. It’s forcing the storm to continue to dig southward. 

Icon gets real close with the follow up wave and looks very nice so far for the LR storm. 

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wonder what what totals would have been if 1888 occured today. Kocin has said that they are likey wayyy underdone as they were measuring depth at the end especially NYC based on the pictures and info we have he thinks they should have way more maybe 30" or more. and if the depth was 45" here, were probably looking at 60+ easily measuring in 6 hr increments.

Jesus lol. Gotta wonder what the H5 charts looked like to allow something like that to occur. 

38 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Some guys around my age actually cried when it busted. Probably 11-13 years old at the time, so it's understandable. Also I was told that John Bolaris will never live down all his hyping of that March storm that never happened.

I lived near Baltimore at the time and grew up there, and I do remember the December 2000 storm. I wasn't emotionally invested in it since I was not yet into winter weather, but that was actually another bust in the mid-Atlantic. I think the forecasts called for 8-12", something major, but the precip shield ended up being so compact that it completely bypassed the area. Philly ended up with 9" and was right near the edge, but Wilmington received only an inch or two. DC and Baltimore did not get a single flake. And then a few months later we all know what happened. 

I actually texted Ji on AIM the night of the December 30 event around like 3am. Don’t ask me why I remember this, but he was depressed at the fact that there were clear skies at DC. I was up all night watching the radar. Fell asleep thinking we were screwed. Of course I fell asleep right as it started.

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You ever wonder what 1978 would’ve looked like on today’s models?  Could it have been 5-6 feet, that verifies as 36-48”.  I always wonder about that... how storms of yore would’ve been represented in the lead time with today’s models.

I sometimes wonder what radar looked for certain events. 1888 comes to mind. Probably would have looked like a hurricane coming on shore. 

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Was living in Middleboro in 2001.  What am I missing or not missing from March that year?  Was there any snow there? BOX used to have access to historical snow storms but they truncated it to only last  sum odd years.

Famartin has a nice winter storm archive but it’s just for NJ. Though it has all sorts of maps for a lot of storms since 94.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

here was 01’s H5 track. A really wacky capture. 

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Elemental Energy. Hooralph. Some good old ones there.

Anyone know what happened to Arizwx? He was a classic for some reason I feel like he may have passed away, but not 100% sure. Where has Rob22 been? He was a phillY classic, I knew him in person in met school and lost touch. 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Good times

https://web.archive.org/web/20010405123656/http://www.wright-weather.com/cgi-bin-bb/forumdisplay.cgi?action=topics&number=11&forum=Forecasting+Discussion&DaysPrune=30&startpoint=760

Omg I have a post on that page you just linked...my original username is icez. I’m embarrassed to even read it lmao.

Feb 5 2001 was a nasty storm even down here. Went from heavy rain to a white out during rush hour. Kids stranded at schools and all sorts of accidents. Ranks up there with the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen. 

47 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Thank goodness March 2001 happened just before I started paying attention to winter weather. I would've been heartbroken.

You have no idea. I signed up on Wright weather and the weather channel forums (they were briefly a thing) in 2000. My first experience tracking was the dec 30 2000 storm, but 2001 will never be forgotten down here in philly. I didn’t look at weather models until the next year, but I remember reading it on the forums of how insane they were. I was 14 at the time, schools were cancelled for two days for no reason because the hype was so real and the AVN model kept showing snow and had done well during a few other storms during the season that some outlets, looking at you John Bolaris of NBc10, who still held onto 6-10 like the night before the main low (there were two Parts of that storm)...

I remember joe bastardi’s crazy newsletter hyping it up, ji & nor’easter posting about it on wright weather, and unfortunately I remember the night the models suddenly swung northward. 

anyone remember gary grays website? This storm reminds me of reading his newsletter. I forget if that was his name. Man 2-3 days before the storm there was legit talks of 30-40” in philadelphia. 
 

What a beautiful block towards the end of the run.

CMC ensembles agree with the OP, alright back to work!

12z JMA for ji of course. The LP doesn’t come from the best spot, but the signal is there. HP showing up in SE Canada is of course a big deal for us.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

None of the models when on an island without any other support is a good bet, especially not at that range.  There is a lot of moving parts in this pattern.  We will see how it shakes out.  

Yeah I’m not counting it out at this range. Just saying the idea for a crazy wrapped up ULL was most likely a bias coming into play. I’m really enthusiastic about the next few weeks.

144–Looks like euro is going to phase the northern piece too soon this run. There will be a storm though based on H5 but probably on the warmer side

Euro got rid of the follow up wave btw, caved once again to the other models. I said before when the euro is on an island you better hope other models jump on soon