Heisy

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I probably will. I’ve stayed at hotels twice and both were fine. I follow the health guidelines pretty carefully when I’m around people. 

Hey I’m in the Philly area, I’ve been on a few winter storm chased myself and looking for someone to go with. Help cut down expenses. Hoping this storm is strong enough to and East enough to maybe chase to the Poconos. PM me if looking to chase this storm or any storm in future. Covid makes it tough obviously.

I wonder if we’ll ever get a sustained west based AO block or even a normal block. Feels like it’s impossible anymore.

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ...  may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... 

If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ...

I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5)

I like this description. In my years of looking at the wx models I’ve always been torn on whether each model run should be viewed as a separate entity or if trends actually exist, and like you just said I’ve always this feeling sometimes they’re almost trying balance things even though I couldn’t put my finger on it.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, the Euro system we're talking about is 12/7-8....NOT the 12/5 junk system.

The 12/5 system on this run doesn't even really materialize...the southern stream gets cutoff in the southwest and we see a weak low develop almost overhead in NNE on 12/5. The reason the GGEM has a huge soaker for 12/5 is that it doesn't bury the SW energy like the GFS and Euro do.

Exactly. The cmc had this idea last night which is what the euro shows now. Models are having an extremely extremely tough time on how much energy gets left behind on the southern stream and how far south the northern branch drops. I swear each run every model is changing drastically

Small tidbit but the 12z UKIE 144hr had that northern branch piece in the same spot the 00z Canadian did at same time. Wonder if it would have played out the same and if it’s a signal it’s not crazy. Curious how the 00z will look, and of course the euro. 

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Stop smoking weed and get a high-level security clearance and I will get you a job, bro.

Hmm well I don’t smoke weed & I worked at a casino for 4 years so can pass any background check, where do I apply?! 

Phineas you better have an open guest room for rent for a chase! You basically fulfilled my dream. Since high school I wanted to move from Philly to NE for snow purposes of course. Very jealous.

models tend to have issues with northern branch phases. Plus there’s going to be issues with how much energy is left behind from the first (2nd event) down south so a lot is going to change

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I posted about this earlier… The northern stream has not been handled very inconsistently ...earlier in the day the runs almost completely abandon any northern stream involvement at all and here some of these 0Z runs or bringing it back big time cut in and still day 6+
 

..,so you know this could be an on off deal for the next couple days

Check out the 00z Canadian for an even wilder scenario, snowstorm from Philly to Maine, and an absolute monster for the NW crew 

I don’t have precip maps yet but cmc 500 track had to be a beast for you guys...way different look this run

Whoa, check out the CMC @ 174 hrs...looks like it’s diving the northern branch down big time

On 10/5/2020 at 3:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the forecast from most TV outlets over ORH county was in the 5-8" range with some lower in the 2-4" range. NWS was a little more bullish with like 8-12" and I was hammering it even harder, but I still busted pretty heavily. I went 10-15" I think.

I had no idea why everyone was so skittish on that one. I wonder if they were all worried about a bust like DC had in that one (they had a WSW for like 6-10" and got basically zilch in DC with a few sloppy inches in the suburbs....you had to go well west into the foothills to get big totals there. But the temp profile was totally different here...we had these -4C to -5C 950mb temps funneling down the Maine coast right into the CCB/Firehose.

Yeah, I believe this was the 2nd part of the first part that busted down in DC. Think the low slowed down and got captured. I know because my dumbass storm chased to VA instead of waiting a day or 2 and storm chasing up SNE, one of my major life regrets lol.

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Last year was brutal we had 7 months of 40's rain I agree. Even better there is a strong indicator of an early spring coming this February.

 

Man you guys are really down on this winter. I could care less about the winter as a whole. Give me one 12+ storm and it’s lights out. Though, I still think this winter exceeds expectations, and by a lot.

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Moved this here to avoid cluttering up the main thread.  

With respect, I want it to snow more than anyone!  (joking - we ALL want it to snow more than anyone else).  I'm nearly 60 and still have an insatiable appetite for snow.  My wife of nearly 25 years knows it's coming every season.  The hope, the despair, the sleepless nights hoping...  Just happen to live in the wrong place for it apart from our occasional KU shellacking we all dream about.

FWIW - you must add one thing to your bucket list.  That is to experience one of the dumpings ivo the western facing slopes of the Japanese Alps on Honshu.  The moist flow off the ocean with upslope effect results is unbelievable volumes measured in meters, not feet.  Zao is known for their "Snow Monsters", which are the wind-swept snow-encrusted tops of pine trees barely peeking out of the 60+ feet of snow.  It is a sight that we must all experience at least one time in our lives.  Anything else anywhere is a distant 2nd.  

 

Yes sir. Maybe one day right? At least something closer that I could chase is Lake effect snow. I went to college SW of Pitt at Cal U. They would get lake effect snow showers, but nothing like lake adjacent locals. I’d love to experience a 2-3 day 3 foot type event. 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Oh boy...hopefully more people can tell us why things wont happen...that makes this place awesome 

No one wants it to snow more than me. Trust me. I’ve storm chased snowstorms where I couldn’t afford it but went anyway. Hell I lost a job because of 2015 NE event . Ji will tell you if he recalls, but the 2001 bust sent me into a depression at 14 years old. I’m sick in the head when it comes to snow. 

 I used to feel the same way when I saw negative posts, but I’m just being realistic. The week after this storm? There’s reason to have tempid excitement

The antecedent air is too warm. The first storm would need to head into 50/50 position, but it’s not doing that on the models. Instead it’s lifting to the NW.  We don’t get snowstorms, normally, with a HP off the SE coast like is being shown. We’d need a monster ULL to close off and stall in the perfect spot and even then with this airmass it likely would be too warm. I’m more enthused with the week after this event. I’m still interested in seeing if the far Nw burbs can cash in though...I’m only talking about the city and immediate burbs of course.

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This is wicked impressive.  Slight adjustment and we are good .8 days to adjust 

 

Gets to 959 mb off New England coast 

Meteorlogically speaking it will be a fun track, don’t expect snow though

You have to love both the GFS & CMC long range OP runs....Polar vortex paying a visit along with solid +PNA.... hopefully ensembles agree...I’d say if that pattern happens well cash in soon

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m ok with the 18z gfs for late week. Bet that somewhere in the ensembles will be a couple of eye openers.

There’s not enough cold air to work with imo. Not saying it couldn’t work, but it’s a longshot

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the full phase would have been 2-3 feet

Yep. This storm legit sent me into a month long depression as a 15 year old. (Yeah I’m a bit strange)...One of the NE forum members has a nice write up if you google it, but back then the 12z euro didnt come out until evening times, and if im remembering correctly there was no 00z euro. I think one of the 12z euro runs finally backed down, but the AVN stayed on board for a bit which is why forecasters had trouble reversing courses. Ill still always remember JBs newsletter few days before. What a bastard storm. I also remember Ji and Noreaster hyping it up for a week on wright weather lol...what a beautiful 500mb though, so damn close. 

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

For posterity.

 

Eps is also moving the good looks up in time.

Wow that LR EPS look is a classic southern slider/mid Atlantic setup. Nice 50/50 style confluence and a positive tilted southern stream along with the obvious PNA ridge

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This look

With that SW-NE ridge axis across Canada centered just north of Hudson Bay is actually a really good one that has lead to many moderate snow events in our region historically.  I’m not getting into the “but will it happen debate”. But I am of the mine it’s better to look good than bad. Last year proved having the long range look awful all winter isn’t a good thing.  Additionally seeing the pattern look nothing like a typical Nina (and that feature is not way out in fantasy land) is a positive development. The pattern analogs are littered with nino years right now. And even Nov 1995 in there. Sometimes we get lucky and the atmosphere just does something crazy. Not saying I feel optimistic yet...but there are positive signs. 

Good post, but one thing...I recall the opposite last year. The long range always showed shades of a great pattern, but would end up changing over and over...hopefully the look holds this time

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Though... Day 8-10 looks quite serviceable to me looking up top.  Probably wrong... but looks like a nice PNA ridge where we want it by Day 10 with high heights in Greenland and looks like some decent blocking?  Or am I confusing things?

I agree. This is the first legit potential event if it holds for a few days. The pattern is conducive. Nice PNA. Blocking isn’t amazing but it’s there, a nice Pre storm ULL...., issue has to do with timing and placement as always with how that 2nd shortwave kind of swings under the ULL and where that ULL sets up. It could go to crap if it takes too long. Then you’d have another over phased Great Lakes low, but as it stands this might be our first track. 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Beautiful Pacific Puke.

Rather have it now than end of month

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Great. Another crap winter. See you next year.

Actually I’d rather the AO rise now in November than later. This is just weenie science, but what matters is post thanksgiving.

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I don't buy into that.

Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. 1999-2000.

Ohhh right right, I’m mixing up the years. Still remember Jan 25 that year but not much else. I left in the evening to a WWF event of all things and TWC saying storm is shifting west. Came home around 11 to a winter storm warning for 6-12 and tried staying awake for the first flakes...checking the radar at every 8 on the clock on the local forecast...such a dork haha. Of course I passed out, but caught the tail end of the heavy stuff before the dry slot.