Heisy

12z euro has the ‘cmc’ wave out west at 132, question will be will the northern branch out race it to help solidify the Cold HP

Was just looking at 00z Eps and there is def a nice signal for a storm in this time frame. Pretty good pattern too with 50/50 low although a bit farther N....

Ukie with the same relative look at 144, though less confluence out ahead 

Ukie at 144. Has same idea but would likely be warmer with less confluence than cmc has over SE Canada. That would be the big question if this shortwave is legit. As you can see though we have some minor blocking over Greenland which is pinching the cold air south over SE Canada, get that farther and it’s game on

Lol Ji got his wish. He can be happy for a day. 1-2 feet on the cmc. 

Blizzard on the CMC (after the follow up event)...it’s the cmc though

12z cmc about to go loonie day 7-9...1040hp sitting on top...

Maybe it’s the season of energy left behind? New England’s storm over the weekend originated from energy left behind that then rotated and phased. Usually when the euro is by itself for a run or two you usually see other models jump onto the idea, if not they usually cave, but you never know....

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

27/19. 30% Chance of snow in the morning out here? I dont see where that is coming from?

We’ve talked about this over in philly forum..little vort swinging down from SE Canada...one of those festive snow shower events maybe

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Will post two topics  by 815 PM.  Both shakey but there is so much interest in winter that I think there is enough model evidence to get something out there.

Thanks Walt!

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

nyc got far less then 20 inches of snow last year....

Not sure if trolling, or if you don’t know what an average is. 

7 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

How does this storm on the Euro dump 7+” in Alabama and then get warmer as it moves north?

Because it’s wrapped up cutoff from the flow. SE ridge flexing its muscle a tad too

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol... ho man, you'd get a kick outta the JMA. 

...that sucker looks like 2.78" of accreted ice, then,  24" of snow on top - from overnight Saturday night through next Tuesday ... fuggin cryo-apocalypse.   

I mean, I posted two days ago that this pattern was only deceptively bad but I didn't exactly have ending the world in mind. lord

Is the JMA like ...useful ?  I really haven't ever bothered to look.

The JMA H5 graphics always reminded me of the NOGAPS for some reason lol. It tends to be like smoothed out idk. It’s not a good model but i look at it as support for a storm idea. 

Icon has a snow event day 7-8 as well. Different shortwave than GFS is showing, but much snowier runs today so far.

45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The weekend system has evolved from a huge cutter wayy west from days ago to now a cad setup for New England and possible N. Pa . Curious to see how this effects the next follow up system.  

Eps hr 120 

What does the op 6z euro run to? Curious what H5 looks. I’d imagine with a colder flatter look there the follow up wave might have more room to occur.

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Larry Cosgrove thinks the pattern flips to cold and snow  by January and continues through March.

 

He likes  1995-1996 and 2007- 2008 analog

wow I haven’t heard his name in a while! I actually had his email newsletter as a teen. I used to love reading it before school. Nostalgic memories for sure... Where does he post these days? 

Ukie looks good, nice energy behind the main front... and it worked in 2015! (I think that was the year)

Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. 

Waaaay out in time, but an example how you guys can still cash in this pattern if that blocking is real. Zonal flow for the most part but just enough cold air is forced south with the Greenland ridge

2nd run in a row showing ridging into Greenland on the GFS. Looks like a classic SWFE on the day 9-10 range too

This was the ukie at 144 hours, really good setup imo,  it looks way better than the euro did at the same time frame and the euro was relatively close..could definitely imagine a low developing behind the initial wave if we saw beyond here...spacing has to be perfect and I’m a bit worried about the fast flow and any west coast shortwaves rushing things behind this...

(Animation taken from another forum)

Tip alluded to this, but something I noticed was when I did flip to snow it stuck to all surfaces practically immediately. In my life in philly I had never seen that during a changeover event. It always took some time for pavement to accumulate. When the fatties were falling it stuck and accumulated pretty much evenly to every surface. This seems kind of odd considering ratios were bad. When that had happened I thought for sure we might bust high or at least do close to expectation. I didn’t notice the melting aspect until the tail end of the deformation zone where I imagine temps might have climbed up a tad. 

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

78 was my freshman year at college, so I missed those two great storms, but no complaints, I was in SBN for the Cleveland Super Bomb.

I became weather-aware in the late 60s, and here is what I remember of double digit snow storms in SWCT (Westport):

• Lindsay storm
• Xmas night 69, we hit 10" when the occluded front crossed us, that went on to be VT's biggest ever, I believe.
• Two in 78, which I missed.
• April 82
• February 83
• Super Storm of 93

Things changed after that, and double digit storms became common faire for the next 25 years.

That’s the thing. People seem to complain a lot these days, especially in philly, but in the last 2 decades you can’t really doubt we’ve been spoiled with major events....

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's a way offshore low developing on a cold front following a cutter. Our typical cold chasing rain deal.

Idk I mean verbatim,  yeah, but probably the only legit shot for a while... not impossible

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

12z Euro tries to develop a coastal along the front in the long range.

LOL fortune teller?

Was just about to post the euro... I don’t have precip maps so not sure where precip is but the idea of a second wave has been an idea on the models for a bit, but spacing wasn’t good...this isn’t far from a legit coastal