Heisy

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

No help from the ICON either.

Didn’t come out on SV yet it’s south?

Timing is good too, overnight for you guys with this being a wet snow with BL issues it’s a positive. Starts before dawn here in Philly too

As Tombo pointed out on another forum this is like a SWFE here. Have a low near the lakes. If it can stay all snow I love these types. Heavy wet snow will stick to everything and then we drip. I like that it starts before dawn here

Verbatim this looks like a classic heavy wet snow and then once it shuts off we drip 

Be very careful with BL guys. It is very close to being a big issue this run. Awesome to see though

Edit: posted below

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You can tell 12z NAM will be significantly more amped than 06z just looking out west already at 36 hours.

Yep just posted a gif on our Philly forum. This will be a much better run

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is a hit

Yea that’s a pretty big increase in qpf. I’m still worried about 1 camp being inland and the other OTS. We need “just right” down here in Philly.

I went to California University of PA for op met. Back in 2005-07. That school was really growing at the time and had a very good program. I actually knew 3-4 posters from this site when I went there lol. Just another option for you to look at. Think they also offer a masters degree too. 

The trend is real. I’m actually more worried about rain than OTS. As Walt drag says we need the cmc to come on board. This event reminds me of 2013-14 where every shortwave trended better at this range. I really think this ends up being a 6-10” event in the suburbs. These types of waves seem to always trend wetter and stronger. It’s pure stj & with today’s ocean temps expect a juicier system 

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like a solid 6-10/ 8-12” deal. In 8-10 hours 

I think it very well could be. There are some deep lows on those individuals. This is a sensitive setup where if you just neg tilt that wave a little bit more kaboom. 

Nice trend with 6z euro. Much sharper shortwave. This is a nice surprise let’s keep it going at 12z

5 hours ago, Newman said:

The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th..

Yep I’ll be hyping this up until it fails, but 18z gfs pretty much progressed exactly how I’ve been talking about. Hope eps starts honing in next few days. We always have our opportunity for big ones after block has fully retrograded and tpv moves east into 50/50 region

2 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

1994, remember that well too!  Burned through about half of my vacation time because it was impossible to get up the hill from our home! 

Lots of ice, rain on top of snow, froze solid, snow on top of it.  Felt sorry for anyone that had to dig, even the big excavators couldn't move around.  And if you fell on a slight incline, better hold on because you were going all the way down!  Lots of humming at night, eerie blue-green flashes all around and poof!  Spending lots of my younger times at sea I was accustomed to the humming of two stroke diesels so I had no problem sleeping during the long outages.  I do prefer the throb of the prime movers though and pity those depending on 3600 rpm natural gas gennies to keep their freezers humming in the south when the big canes tear the overheads down as far as the eye can see.

1977, lived just outside of the beltway (between Carney and Parkville) and remember the freezing over of the inner harbor and Chesapeake Bay!  Holy Moly if there is a winter that could be called a mini ice age that was it!  People were driving across the harbor!

In April we went down to our beach home on Nabbs Creek to be greeted by ice over 5" thick!  The air bubblers weren't able to keep up and the dock was in moderately poor shape with lots of heaved pilings.

I was only 8 years old but I remember missing a lot of school & ice skating ON THE GRASS with my mom in our backyard up in Philly hah. Which is crazy if you think about in today’s climo

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you.  I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

You can see the nice trend on the eps today as well. Hopefully we see eps start honing in on it more over the next few days. Gfs also had that quick spike in the pna which allowed that wave to dig as far as it did. Seeing slightly better pna ridging today hopefully that continues. HA event potentially. That 50/50 region is hawt. Just need spacing to work out

I love how the 18z gfs formed a storm at day 10-11 in the exact same way I’ve been talking about  

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Thanks SE ridge

That’s the risk with AO blocks retrograding west. Forces ULL sit west of lakes which increases ridging on the EC. Then you get HP off the EC. You have to hope the ULL is strong enough to get the gradient south enough

This is why I’m more excited in the Day 10+ time frame. Look at end of euro run you have an elongated PV in 50/50 location with confluence draped behind it. A rising PNA. If a shortwave can form between the two it’s a perfect setup * note the HP sitting in a great spot at the end of the run.

im still not dismissing anything until then I just like the potential towards feb 11-17 more

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps shows a Miller b next weekend

Problem is the Tpv is west of lakes this will make it tough for any low to track south of NYC.  Think the gradient will be very close to NYC though  but I’d favor SNE and NNE right now. Looks more like a SWFE to me. HP is not in an idea location because of the ULL positioning.

Been hyping it, but IMO it’s after the block is done retrograding and low heights head into 50/50 region that I think a big event is possible. Look at the end of the euro run. Elongated tpv with HP behind it. PNA ridge building, if any wave in between there is strong enough it would be perfect

Icon continues having a strong low for Sunday. 

Icon brings the LP sub 980 on the gulf of Maine 

12z icon looks amped again

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yes you do

Weenies care about snow

Wouldn’t sweat it, if Sunday fails a few days later there’s a threat, and it’ll continue for a few weeks. 

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS made a better move. Definitely still in play. EPS mean had some hints of it. 

Should be many threats as the tpv keeps rotating south under the block, just need a little luck with the configuration.