Heisy

Gfs close to showing a Miller B bomb next Tuesday. I thought this winter was supposed to suck  technically it’s a hit for coastal region I believe

9 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

The 18z GFS gives me 3”  

 

The 18z NAM gives me 26”  

 

BUT NO NO we Don’t need any more money and Government Help for our Weather Models Noooooo.  

Look how far the low tucked west on the gfs down towards Delaware compared to 12z and that was one run in difference. This is how the gfs does it. It’ll catch up eventually. I’ve grown to the point where I just use it for longer range wave length ideas and storm potential, but specifics is Gd pointless

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

CCB just rots there 

 

You see that lighter precip near Philly. I garuantee that ends up being sleet if that low ends up in that position, I still think philly can do 4-10 I just think 12+ is way overdon. Wait till NAM gets closer we’ll have a better idea

12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Who know? They may be correct? This is what I'm seeing...

That looks overdone probably up to the city. More sleet would happen imo.

Just now, Allsnow said:

The euro and ukmet were giving Albany and north of the pike 12+! It’s the Gfs that saw the tight gradient to the north with the block. 

Still too early to call a win yet. I have a feeling 18z NAM delivers though for some reason

12 minutes ago, Kborne said:

Is there an estimated start/finish time for the LV?

I’d say start between 12-3 wednesday 

OT but the LR Christmas gfs setup looks almost identical to today’s H5. Pretty crazy. Check out day 8-9. Shortwave diving down which could form 50:50 with nice energy dropping out of NW

19 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

New NAM takes a step back towards the gfs/rgem. Actually more in line with what I think will happen.

 

6-10" for 95 with a period of sleet

10-15" with lolli's in the 20" range N and W of 95 in elevated areas. Thinking CCB is going to end up just south of the lehigh valley. 

 

Sharp cut off south of 95. 

6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully

Icon is NW 

30 minutes ago, Animal said:

MJVentrice Twitter post is a few nails in the coffin for I 95 crowd!

What because of a meso model 3 days away? It’s not impossible, but common.

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What about the 355 days of the year it doesn’t snow? 

Still worth it

You guys helped me last times so I’ll ask where do you think I should head? I was thinking poconos

To me it’s pretty obvious the rgem is dead wrong. The major models disagree right now. Itll Shift Nw soon. The Max snowfall strip won’t be over or near the City. 

This hobby sucks sometimes lol. Tough runs by the EE rule models at 6z. Drastically need a shift SE soon! I don’t want to chase to Pittsburgh lol

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

You mean mid 2010's? Mid 2000's I was in HS still being a weenie and learning everything while I stalked Accuweather Forums lol. If I had to pick a spot, right now in PA, I'd head to York county in the hills between HBG and THV. There's routes over to I-81 area too. Someone there will clean up

Haha maybe. The years kind of blend together. It might have been another Millville username who knows. Thanks man. I personally think center city philly ends up with around 5-6” NE 6-8”. Excited for a semi local chase though!

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If anyone is interested, I wrote a book earlier this evening on my thoughts. Feel free to critique. Thanks!

Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward?

I’d be very careful with the GFS. Not that I’m trying to be a Debbie downer,  but almost always its surface reflection lags behind the upper levels. Still I think the answer lies somewhere in between guidance

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You mix for a time, then you be whacked really good by a band that develops along the 85H frontogenic placement. 850mb temps crash from ~+1C to -5C in 3 hrs and it rips for like 6 hrs before shutting off. 

Low seems to get up to just SE of cape may and then shoots literally due east from there between 78-87 hours

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

14" for Philly with that track

 

That’s what surprised me, but in SV you see why since ULL gets more tucked it slows down we get the back end. Idk if it’s counting sleet as snow though so no clue.

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Euro run is horrible. No one from I-95 east is getting more than slop with that track. Let’s hope the GFS holds serve. The Euro has been over amping some coastal storms in our area the last few years so we have hope.

Wouldn’t sweat it. If by 00z tomorrow all the models show this then it’s time to write off philly getting more than 8. Even with this run though philly manages some front and back end i believe

Just now, RedSky said:

Coastal is over Delaware Bay, then rockets east GFS style 

Yeah kind of has more wrap around though. Not the solution you want for philly. Even the Max axis is pushed into NAM world

3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

I agreed with your post more was asking why you used the ellipses instead of just staying it as a fact. 

I love ellipses for...some reason lol

Just now, Birds~69 said:

.qpf amounts....30-40" snow is quite a bit. If it stalled and hung around, maybe.  But thinking 1.5-2.5" max .qpf doesn't equal 30-40" unless there is high ratios which there won't be...

Exactly. You’ll likely only see those ratios where the best lift is and then the qpf is overdone and we’re at best talking 11-12/1...years ago I’d be telling my friends 30-40 is coming to E PA but I’ve learned through the years what actually happens when you account modeling issues. Philly is also going to have shit ratios if they get in that subsidence region. ..I think the snow early on will fall heavy in philly, then the best lift shoots to the NW and lighter precip will kind of be stuck over the city. It’ll be snow most likely, but 5-10 for philly is the best call right now. What you need to do is look for clues in the modeling a

8 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Why ... and not .

Models always overdo qpf. I’ll let the pros answer, idk I just don’t see the duration with this one to hit 30. 

40 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

I'm genuinely confused. Why does everyone say 5-10 in the city when none of the models say that? Even the cmc yields 11, and that's the low estimate. There's lots of precip, and it's cold. What am I not understanding? Not trying to be aggressive or wishcast--I genuinely do not see 5-10 being shown on anything. Models have stayed very consistent. That means, the maps are not clown maps: they agree with each other more or less. Like if someone wants to explain why all of the guidance is wrong, I'm all ears. But if it isn't, Philly gets 8-12 as I said earlier today, and stand by now. I'm happy to lie in that grave if I'm wrong, it isn't a bold prediction. It is true that most of the time the burbs see more than the city. That doesn't mean the city gets 6" though. 

Because the snow maps are likely wrong away from the deformation zone. I put 5 just in case mixing gets to city, and 10 if it doesn’t. It’s also based on history of how these storms play out