Heisy

Just now, Ji said:

has anyone seen the NAM3k Temps during the height of the storm. 32-34. This has like an 80s wetsnow vibe too it @psuhoffman

I love those types. Accumulates quickly on cold surfaces, gradually covers roads, it’ll be a winter wonderland hopefully and then we drip

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It will be a quick mover. These are one of our most common setups for snow around here. Wave forms along baroclinic wave left behind from this AM's departing system. Not saying it can't overachiever but in general thru the years I've seen these trailing waves drop a solid thump with the f gen banding then usually just lightly accumulating snow behind that also zips out quickly.

These systems are textbook...minor warning event. The very high end is probably a 5-10" for whoever gets under the best lift and has ratios....which will be a challenge in and along I 95. Just figuring out the snow axis still seems the challenge moving forward. 

I’d favor just SE of the city right now for the isolated 8-9” pops but that could change if this trend continues

1 minute ago, VA Mad Man said:

I'd imagine NWS will hold off on issuing a WSW until after the 12Z suite?

 

My guess would be after Euro. In the afternoon. 

Wow, you can see how stronger the shortwave trended here...squint hard enough 

Rgem looks really good curious where it goes from there heh

18 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

On Channel 5 News this morning they were saying 1 - 2 inches with a mix ending as rain this Sunday. I'm confused. They didn't even indicate that totals could be higher. 

Because there is still a question of how Far East the storm forms etc. models keep trending better though

I’d ignore the 12km and stick with the 3km, that being said it’s still a very good hit for a progressive system. If that fgen band forms as the NAM says someone inside the max axis would have a shot at 8” of heavy wet snow as it should promote heavy rates and good snow growth

That’s one of the beefiest means you’ll see at this range on the EPS for day 8-10

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS tickled NW. interesting set of trends in the last 12 hours. Some models going SE and others coming NW.  

Threat definitely still alive but need to narrow these goalposts. 

Quite the difference between 3km NAM and 12km heh....before last event tony (rainshadow) posted the model that’s supposed to be replacing the NAM eventually. It did a decent job. I’ll see if he can post it later today for this event

Just now, BristowWx said:

Looks nice to me at 54

Yea great run. Not quite, but starting to get bit of a consensus here. 

6z gfs slightly improved, bit more ridging thru 51hrs

27 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

06Z NAM Nest for Sat night-Sunday. Definitely juicy. This is with the Ferrier rime correction (capped at 10-1). If it's all snow w/o rimed flakes and a >10-1 SLR, we would get more. 

The NAM Nest Ferrier snow maps did a pretty good job in the DC area for the WAA phase in the last event (on Sunday).

Before the last event on our Philly forum Tony (rainshadow) posted the model that’s supposed to be replacing the NAM soon. I forget what it’s called, but it did an amazing job. I think it begins with a C but idk lol. I’ll see if I can get a snow map off its recent run.
 

I found it...

so supposedly this will be the model replacing the NAM. This was its forecast before the last event

The 00z eps is back to progressing the pattern the way I originally mentioned. Where the TPV heads east and the main low is behind that instead of being a front out ahead of it. This is a juicy mean for this time frame. Legit.

10 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

06Z NAM Nest for Sat night-Sunday. Definitely juicy. This is with the Ferrier rime correction (capped at 10-1). If it's all snow w/o rimed flakes and a >10-1 SLR, we would get more. 

The NAM Nest Ferrier snow maps did a pretty good job in the DC area for the WAA phase in the last event (on Sunday).

What is the NAM nest? Like an ensemble of all the different resolutions?

Icon is gonna have the day 7-8 overrunning beast event that the gfs has too FYI.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

ICON looks slightly more amplified then 18z through 46 hours fwiw.  

I have it out, it looks like NAM to a degree with that heavy stripe 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

RGEM is yuck.  It has the next system right on its heels.  That is not helping.  It is way ahead of the progression on the NAM and GFS with that next wave and its way more amplified.  I think that is kicking this thing more on the rgem and cmc.  

Was really hoping to nab the cmc/rgem tonight. It’s not an all hope is lost type thing but it’s a big red flag

Think this is just the NAM correcting to rest of guidance. It was obv a bit over amped. Once we get under 24-36 hours we can start seeing if the fronto band can get far enough N to get the heavier stuff into Philly/nyc.

Vs

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The SREFS aren’t wetter. They may be better snowfall wise but the precip in our area is about the same and down in southeast Va they are drier. Also driernup the coast. Not what I wanted to see. I wanted wetter and more west basically. I’m looking at the 24 hour totals at 3 z Sunday night.

Idk this looks better to me ?

10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Idk man I think you would agree with this sentiment but the Euro hasn’t been itself as of late. Maybe I’m wrong or maybe there’s a compromise in between more amped models vs Euro/CMC combo but those developing winds at 250 just scream some awesome moisture transport so I think regardless we have some good advection and some good quality rates even if the storm is progressive in nature.

When it comes to the LR the euro will always be #1 imo. Frankly it sniffs these out much faster than other models. At this range though it is susceptible to ticks in either direction. Seems odd but happens. This really feels like an event where we see an uptick on the euro once inside 48 hours. Idk, just has that setup 

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Most likely late to the party.  We will see.

Fairly confident we’ll see uptick on euro as we get closer. 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

This isn’t likely to be 10+ it’s a fast mover 

Agreed. This is more of a 3-6 with pops to 8-9 if full potential reached 

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

18z and 6z runs also incorporate updated data. It’s a myth that somehow they just run off previous 12z or 0z data. 

I think that’s a half truth. From what I understand they use 6hr data from the previous run, and add some new data. I might be explaining this wrong but I had a convo with a met on phillywx. Regardless off runs are still updated and worth taking serious