Heisy

Better TPV press so far vs 6z


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Using the icon as an example of what we want to see. That right shortwave we want to press on farther E and have our main low develop from the trailer. If it develops a low on the lead wave like the icon does that won’t work for us for the most part


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If you have time, could you show me the tpv on the map? (I'd like to track it to see if/when it changes or moves into a better spot)

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I don't track deep details beyond 5 days anymore. My memory is telling me they're always copies of each other with no deviation. Lower res would deviate thru time. I'm not certain though. Just a memory artifact.

Exactly, that’s why the 6z run is pretty startling to me. We’re at that range still where we can still see large evolution shifts. Was it a blip? And remember it doesn’t really match up with EPS timing because if the control was right the trailer wave lags another day behind which would extend beyond 144 hours. You have the EPS dumping snow on us by 144 yet the control is still developing the low so there’s a big discrepancy here. 12z is gonna be mighty interesting

All I know is if you want a big snowstorm in VA etc,root for that control scenario


Edit: just about every scenario still on the table, and we can still snow with other evolutions as well, I was just very surprised to see that control run. Offers a new possibility

Control is just the OP run at lower resolution. Like here is last nights 00z comparison.

I expect 12z to throw in some wrinkles

Edit: woops I posted different hours but you get the idea




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the control would be a MECS lmao. northern stream outruns the main S/W and provides confluence

Yes, what the control is doing is exactly what you’d want for a MECS for the SE/Midsantic. and what’s interesting is the OP and control are generally exactly the same up to day 6-7. Check out prior runs H5 is mirrored every run. 12z should be really interesting. Wonder if that perks Psuhoffman up


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Control has a way different evolution than 00z. This was gonna be interesting to say the least



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Here’s the “skip” on the cmc as well. We need that second low to develop faster and closer to the coast, like the euro or better





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The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever.

So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours.

6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situations

You see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible.





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If we get this under 72 hours I want Randy to host a radio show. I miss those days


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Can see the jet backed up a touch, not that it matters much either way we’ll have a 00z run soon enough


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Looks like the 12z op run, so probably a similar outcome.

I think it was going to be much stronger event farther S. Like possible develop in time to snow farther S, not necessarily N



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Control at 132, this looks like a major storm developing


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My guess thru 120 is EPS would come in a touch less amped. Main wave touch farther E


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Eps rolling now we’ll have a good idea at its end range how the storm would have ended up


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man if that stronger wave diving in behind can round the bend and catch the STJ...with the front having cleared and the TPV out ahead of it locking in the cold...might not do it this run but this is moving towards a setup with way more upside.  

Lol at me saying 5 minutes before the run to probably expect an out to sea run or 2. This is absolutely fine. It’s the GFS’ cave run. Get the trailer wave backed up a little farther W in future runs and we good. The GFS doing this just gives more credit towards euro camp. Cya all at 00z


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12z gfs was much faster because it was still in the middle of deciding between which wave to focus on. 18z is much more aligned with icon/euro progression . Trailer wave now gaining traction at this hour, it’s a bit farther E than Euro though so this might be out to sea but I’m happy about the GFS caving to that progression


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Can tell the GFS has morphed itself into the trailer wave idea as well, the trough is much farther backed up W vs prior runs. Timing will be more like euro


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You gotta hang in there man.  Don't be the one on the coaster who throws up.  Give it at least until Sunday 0z at least.  Be a real Mid Atl and hope until hope has run out

Yea, and the type of system this is evolving into is also very reliant on timing. I could see the GFS squash everything to the SE for a suite or 2 wouldn’t be shocked if that happened. Probably be a good thing. We want the EPS to stay the course and improve though


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This is evolving towards a frontrunner wave escaping and the trailing energy swinging around behind type deal which is a much better setup than what most guidance was suggesting yesterday.  

Yeppers, I didn’t foresee that possibility until I noticed the 6z eps/control hint at it. It allows the Front running wave to press the cold a little better. Then question becomes how much drag does the trailer wave have. If you noticed, the 12z euro actually missed a phase down south. Wonder if that would have been better or worst for us though.


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18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities


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Fan of the icon at the end of its run. In fact I bet that would have lead to very euro like solution if it went beyond 120, happy hour time



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Almost looks identical to euro

Right where we want it…


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06z. Gfs is actually better then 00z to my untrained eye  babysteps!

Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip.

Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic.



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GEFS vs 18z, that’s not what we want to see at 50/50 region




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