Heisy

Look at the game being played out in the PAC with that Rex block. Shortwaves are being flipped right and left, absorbed and pushed through that before our wave hits the conus. Gonna be lots of changes up to 3 day window here each run


.

The tpv never fully gets to 50/50 until late and by then the block is retrograding too much. For this setup it’s still a little west as the NS wave crashes the west so it guarantees it dives in and we need phasing. It’s kinda bad luck we don’t get a stronger stj wave!  But if we need to go it with a NS wave it takes more suppression to force that under us that a STJ wave. Different setups require different things. 

Shame too because the #1 analog on cansips yesterday was blizzard of 96 lol. The setup is there it’s just some things are slightly misplaced here and there for a full phase monster. Not going to get that barring a miracle, but we can certainly do well. Wish i had the means to get to Nova Scotia for this one lol


.I bet if you took the GFS run and just shifted the entire planets H5 pattern west a little bet we’d get a blizzard of 96-like solution ha

Ukie bombs in similar location to GFS

It’s slightly farther E than GFs but it took a step l vs previous runs…





.

Just need to close that off about 6 hours sooner. I could see it was being captured just by the surface depiction that was posted.

#1 on the list… just gonna leave this here. Not saying that’s going to happen obviously, just pointing out the pattern is def good lol


.

Booking my trip to Nova Scotia now, jesus lol


.

Sorry I had to throw some DT classics in there, this is close to perfect let’s gooo!



.

Wolf woof



.

ALEET



.

Whoa this might get close here, does it make the turn in time?!



.

Diving down farther west


.

We will need 2 blizzards in Feb March to make this a good winter. It’s possible! We even got 30 inches after mid Feb in 2015!

But yes…we will need a once in a lifetime hecs to have a chance

Any winter with a blizzard is a good winter. I don’t care if the rest of the days are sunny and 50 degrees. Give me one blizzard and I’d be a happy man.


.

6z eps control look like better phasing occurring. The problem for this event is the PNA ridge rolling over just doesn’t give this wave enough room to amplify. It’s why the GFS shoves the low SE. a modest event certainly possible though


.

Cash Out bro while it's still a value

Nah I’m all in for second threat. If it fails I’ll delete wxbell


.

Wow, this screams MECS+ for Ne, if we can back up the trough a little more we could get in on this as well



.

What a cave job in 12 hours

I do think E areas can do well if the trailer wave is strong enough to redevelop like a lot of eps members do.




.

Bleh 

It’s close man, gfs was the last model to finally come on board with the wave crashing on shore so it’s the weakest of them all. For fun check out end of icon near Washington state that was a beast coming on shore. Setup is there just once again see if we can finally get lucky


.

For this threat root for the energy crashing on shore to trend stronger and for the tpv to tick East which imo will trap the incoming wave under it with the established block. We gotta cash something on these two threats


.

For my own sanity I’ll move to the second threat.




.

It’s still possible it could redevelop like a lot of the eps members did but this would favor E regions up thru SNE


.

It honestly looks like the euro now, pretty similar at H5. What a cave job in 12 hours


.

I don’t like this trend here, see what happens…


.

Bleh, fade me crew


.

I don’t like this trend here, see what happens…


.

So the 18z icon and icon are in the camp of focusing on that first wave. They’re both too warm for us because of how far NW it is.

The images below are the 12z icon, Ukie, then the 3rd one was the 00z Ukie, which was maybe the hottest H5 run we’ve had.


A low developing on that wave isn’t ideal.





.

Better on eps 
 

Yea there’s a bunch of members that eventually redevelop the low in a great spot for SNE. I think the 00z Ukie/6z GFS esque progressions are off the table.

I’d bet good $ your region jackpots both the next 2 events.


.

Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move.  But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own
Look at the GGEM

Now look at the euro.  The feature X is the issue.  The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more.  The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying.  

Ugh, eps has them pretty disjointed. Can see our wave near Pa here. There are a bunch of members that redevelop the low on time to scrape E MD, SE pa into SNE
.


.