Heisy

so, the run is done and I can't make a real determination so I'll leave it to the pros.  But the subtle changes to me seem positive

It is risky but it can work. I’m shocked how similar the setup is to Jan 22 1987 given its nearly the same time of year and that was one of my top analogs!  


There was no high in front of that one.  It had a little wave rotate around ahead of the anchor vortex but the key was that the trough remained positive tilted until the partial phase with the stj in the southeast. That way once the storm starts to get pulled north it won’t track inside where we need it.  But it’s a very similar progression to what the gfs just did.
 
This would be like a best possible case outcome for this type of setup of course but this can work if the wave stays positive until it’s east of the Mississippi.  There was a storm in 1966 that was somewhat similar with a due north track also.  Also one of my top analogs!
 
 

.

????

.

GEFS is gonna be a huge move from 12z…


.

.

So as things progressed, this may end up
Tucking a bit more than 12z the trough axis is farther W


.

lil low popped off the SC line coast.  Let's see what she does

.

for reference, that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. massive weak/southern outlier 

I told you that probably wont work.  Even that control run wasn't going to work and it wasn't even going to be close.  I saw some of the posts about it and went and looked and was like...huh this was going to be way OTS.  The angle that trailing wave is coming in at and the angle of the trough trailing from the TPV makes it almost impossible for that final caboose SW to amplify and come north.  It's going to swing way too far SE before turning the corner.  Plus, with 2 waves ahead of it, its simply unlikely to have enough left along the STJ boundary for it to activate a healthy storm in time.  
Yes, in an ideal world we get the TPV out ahead and then something comes in behind but the spacing isnt even close for that to work.  I was just thrilled the guidance went from keying on the lead wave on Monday/Tuesday to the second wave on Tuesday.  That allows the chance for the front the clear and to get a healthy enough boundary wave like the GFS.  You're going greedy and trying for the next wave which yes if you were to change some variables would have HECS potential but its too late in the game to get those changes imo.  I've been wrong but man would I be really really shocked if that last trailing wave was able to turn the corner and amplify.  I hope I am wrong but that seems far fetched imo.  

Welp, we've flipped places. GFS looks good and Euro looks sickly and supressed/weak  Barely any precip in the area

It’s also introducing a kicker wave in the NW which is no where to be found on any other model


.

Euro all alone with this idea though so who knows


.

we definitely don't have to worry about Heisy's NW phobia with the euro.  I don't mind seeing some stuff SE and some stuff NW at this point.  

Euro might be similar to 6z control with delayed wave


.

My concern on full display off the 12z GEPS, If this the progression models are honing in on root the hell out of the 14th wave to trend stronger since there’s no other reinforcing cold shots

Strong phase you’re basically boned in DC and Philly

Do these maps all seem similar? Unfortunately…






.

Don't be greedy this run was damn near perfect, cold smoke event for everyone.  Yea we could root for more amplified but that could introduce other issues.  Obviously we don't get the option but I would stick with this run if I could.  

I know on paper the GFS looks good, and this might sound confusing, but I personally am not a fan of the GFS or rest of todays 12z runs so far. I was hoping we’d see a trend towards the 6z control progression of clearing the front first and then developing a second low. The cmc/Ukie/icon/ gfs all have similar evolutions now, I’m just worried that we’re seeing the GFS colder/SE bias at play.

If todays guidance so far is correct we’re basically limiting the ceiling here and seriously would have issues with temps being too warm.

A control like progression would give us no worries for it being too amped and would give us a chance at an historic major event imo.

We can still cash in on the current progression advertised, but meh. See what wrinkle euro throws in here shortly


.

Cmc won’t be good as it emphasizes more of the lead wave, no separation probably way too warm but idk for sure based on B&W maps


.

Ok, light snow at 105

Agreed, just pointing it out, models are def not gonna have any kind of agreement today with those trailer waves and how/if they work out. So I wouldn’t panic one way or another regardless of what 12z does


.

but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified.  

I think GFS is gonna be a big improvement vs 6z based on what I’m seeing early.


Watch GFS become our snowiest model by the end of the day