Heisy

overall pattern progression points towards a significant storm in the northeast. that's probably why

Yea this is a setup for a classic Miller B. At least if Tuesday fails we can keep an eye on other events.


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12z rgem vs 00z cmc last night, expect todays cmc to come back to reality from it’s crazy inland solution yesterday. I’d wager it will prob show a decent hit based on the rgem look at 84 hours



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Rgem is in our camp as well, the euro is just wrong it has no support it’s gotta come around already lol


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That continued trending west, enough so that I got about 6" out here and DC/Baltimore was mostly rain, although that was one of the storms that drove me nuts and I swore "should have been" 3-6" for 95.  Interesting catch, lets hope for a similar trend now

I bet we end up flirting with mix or dry slot near the cities as well by the end of this. H5 h7 track on Ukie gfs def argue for it. Ccb sets up just NW of 95 on the GFS


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12z NAM is def in the gfs camp


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Trying to figure out the differences on why the euro is doing what it’s doing. A big difference I’m seeing is at 300mb. There’s better separation of the jets coming on shore on the GFS



Which in turn leads to this…




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If you compare the 6z Euro to the 0z Euro for the same timeframe, there isn't much difference wrt the key features. You are comparing apples to oranges here.

Cape you may have misread me. I was stating that the euro and GFS are still on different hemispheres. I’m not worried yet. I think most guidance leans to a GFS like solution. Unless we see some major shifts on the other models I’m fairly confident euro will come around by the end of the day


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This is pretty major differences for 84-90hrs out. Euro is an improvement but it still wouldn’t have been close to the GFS. I think the euro will cave over the next 24 hours since most of the other data leans GFS evo side


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Not even close in the PNA territory



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I’m honestly shocked the euro did this again tonight after the other guidance. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this honestly


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Ukie H5, we def have another 24-36 hours until we see some more consensus





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Ukie H5, we def have another 24-36 hours until we see some more consensus





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Ukmet?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

Look up


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00z GEFS prob more amped than 18z


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On the bright side regarding the cmc, at least it shows this a couple days later…

More potential




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How much snow for New Orleans?


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This will be a nailbiter, ugh, idk about this run boys, sloppier phase going on


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Gfs has slightly stronger tpv press, my early guess would be this comes SE of 18z


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Def some changes with the pac wave that comes on shore at 50-60 hours. See how that plays out


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Well, the garbage Icon is similar to 12z euro, but this model blows so we’re still 0/0 in my book


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Rgem looks decent at end of run. Let’s go boys, let’s reel it closer tonight


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18z control bumped up a bit. This is probably what the OP would have generally shown outside 90hrs.



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Not sure if anyone has noticed this, but it’s an important aspect that’s not settled and it’s closer to initialization than our actual storm. Check out the PNA ridge. Euro camp has a wave embedded here in the flow which actually impacts things very much. Here is 18z control vs 18z GFS. One is not like the other, and it’s not even close. Euro has a kicker, gfs does not. That’s the type of large scale feature we should see a cave from one side very soon, probably the GFS

Uhhhh…




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Look how the wave near the dakotas backed up. That would allow for more phasing once it tries to turn the corner. On top of that the tpv press isn’t as strong




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