Heisy

Holy bleeping euro. Are we gonna really 09-10 it?

MECS on euro lol , looks like winter is back on the table boys

Wowowow, pna and a huge block

Day 7 euro pattern is nuts! 

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe I’m being pessimistic but I just don’t see that late wrap around stuff working out. If we don’t get it tomorrow afternoon/evening I just think that’s all she wrote 

CMC has it too but just over Philly. It’s a real feature imo but placement will vary 

7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hmmm hard to see how DC gets anywhere near those totals given the current look of the radar but it would be awesome if we did!

There’s a ccb band that sits over the region during the wrap around. 

4 minutes ago, dssbss said:

Coup


.

Haha scoop poop scoo coo idc as long as the nam Is wrong!

Gfs scoring a coop? Wow. Kind of occludes farther east 

18 at the airport seems pretty high. I think 11-12 sounds more realistic. I hope I’m wrong though.  Gonna be close. Depends on the orientation of the ccb band and how far north h7 low is.

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Nam

Told everyone it’s precip over pa was wacky. It’s coming back to the rest of guidance. Going to be fun. Enjoy everyone 

5 hours ago, NJHurricane said:

Welp...

There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs.

A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that.

The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals.  Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16.

I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location.

It is amazing how it seems harder for us to get run of the mill 3-6” type snowstorm than it is to get 1-2 feet types 

11 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol yeah NAMs looking better. So which model(s) will guide your chase? Multiple choices. 50-75 miles NW, N, or NNE. 

Think Allentown best bet for me. Not that far really and is a better position if it forms a few ticks east than progged and they’re fine if it’s west

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Final call for our area 8-16". Modest storm for us a 1-in-5 year event HERE. 

Feel better about NAM? Lol I told you man I had seen this model misplace qpf my entire life basically i knew it was coming

3 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

Don't laugh it's happened:   Morgantown had 50" in March 1958 storm!

And March 58s snow map is very similar throughout New England. It’s a good analog imo. 

CMC should be nutty for someone in PA based on B&w maps as we expected. It follows rgem but isn’t always exact, like today’s 12z run where rgem was south and cmc farther N

Just now, bpjones595 said:

Not sure how to in Tapatalk.... I’m in chads Ford.


.

That doesn’t sound like they’re buying or not buying, but just pointing it out

Gfs jacks Philly and east heh, had much stronger fronto precip

Gfs looks a lot better for the city, but I probably sell

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In any event, the CMC is going to follow the rgem and should be just as crazy if not moreso. Brace yourselves.

I can see the axis go from Lehigh valley up towards NNj kind of like icon 

Ralph, rgem outlier? It has the axis in the same spot as the eps/euro doesn’t it?

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's what the ICON says as well. Instead of the stall near OC MD it is justnEast of Cape May. The NAM isn't alone here. The RGEM is more the outlier than anything else tbh

That’s not the issue. Its issue is qpf placement 

Icon shifted the heavy axis south

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think the NAM is onto something here. Other guidance is shifting the 500mb features N as well. They are small ticks but with 30 hrs to go those ticks will add up. Have yet to see the windshield wipers go back the other way. It was great seeing the NAM halt the trend at 12z but imo it as well as a few others and signaling this might be a NE PA, NYC type jackpot. 

Where r u chasing?? Curious

Pottsville most likely but still got time, gonna wait for 6z eps and 12z NAM then leave. Rgem was unrealistically tucked earlier it just looks like an insane euro like run. I’ve bet against the other eps my last two chases and it burnt me badly 

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Strongly agree. NyC should be the bullseye when all is said and done down to Monmouth.  These last minute adjustments across guidance confirms. 

Ralph you’re really just pushing all your chips on the NAM vs all Other guidance?

this isn’t to say nyc region isn’t going to do great, but the NAM is a joke with precip over pa vs other models 

NAM is bs focusing on wrong PVA. Forcing goes east when it should Form on the trowal instead. It’s garbage ignore it. Itll Keep ticking west/south etc. I’ll say it to my grave

rgem Is sick