Heisy

Remember there is some qpf from Friday’s front too

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Hope it goes exactly as the NAM shows so the south&east crowd can have redemption. I'm like tired of snow I got too much.

 

Haha you’re gonna have a long February then

I really like southern half of Delaware as a jackpot location for this one so far. They get perfect balance of temps being just cold enough and the heaviest precip training over them. 

This is the typical event the NAM will juice up, flat waves with coastal fronto. Expect some crazy runs like this. Need the cmc/rgem family to jump on but I’m starting to feel pretty good about a 2-4 3-5 type event 

3 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Why is the new Radar so bad.  It looks like it could offer so many cool features.. but it is so slow.. you basically quit after the first or second click.

I just use weathertap for larger regions and RadarScope for the zoomed in. This was the first time I used RadarScope during a storm and it was amazing. It circles your exact location. Only a $10 one time fee not bad

good icon run let’s hope gfs continues!

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Icon still looks on board..probaby better than 12z

The icon is the new king if this storm happens, has barely wavered at alll

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I was kind of expecting the 3k to laugh in our faces but it looks like it's going towards a similar (probably slightly less extreme) result as the 12k.

Perfect start time too, can’t beat it

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip:

Surface will be fine for most as long as the heavy precip is legit. It’s gonna be a paste—drip event in the best case scenario.  

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is going to demolish SNE this run....that southern stream just went crazy.

Yep, sick fronto band. Hard to take that serious though would have rather had the big picture look better. 

This storm blowing up helps the pattern down the line. Turns into a 50/50 type feature locks in an okay HP in a good spot. Day 6 euro buries SNE because of help from this event.

10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

true.  i think you meant sunday, but same logic applies.  i was thinking more wrt the meat of the system.  also think the recent snowpack could help with temps right above the surface leading into it.

Woops yeah Sunday. getting that precip to start before daytime warming would be important. This is more like a swf event. Surface is marginal but upper air is fine so if we find the right balance of precip/strength and timing will work out. You’d actually see more white rain if we got fringed. The heavier precip would help cool the BL

20 minutes ago, 87storms said:

others can elaborate better, but most of the models i see have the jet streak right overhead, but the differences seem to be at 500.  gfs/para has a stronger vort lifting through the tn valley/southeast compared to ukmet/cmc.  either way, looks like an ideal low track (could be a little further nw), but rates would certainly help since it'll be a daytime system/borderline temps.

Agree with everything you said except day time. This falls after 1am monday into the morning hours up to like noon. Starting before dawn will help keep the BL cool.

Just now, The Iceman said:

You're right, its an old run from tt, good catch 

Np, normally it’s out by now it’s just delayed for some reason I’ll post it when SV has it out far enough. 

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Rgem still wants nothing to do with Sunday. Not even a tick north from 06z. Icon still on board though it's mostly rain for 95.

Where is icon out? It just started running on SV, double check it’s not an old run fyi

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

No help from the ICON either.

Didn’t come out on SV yet it’s south?

Timing is good too, overnight for you guys with this being a wet snow with BL issues it’s a positive. Starts before dawn here in Philly too

As Tombo pointed out on another forum this is like a SWFE here. Have a low near the lakes. If it can stay all snow I love these types. Heavy wet snow will stick to everything and then we drip. I like that it starts before dawn here

Verbatim this looks like a classic heavy wet snow and then once it shuts off we drip 

Be very careful with BL guys. It is very close to being a big issue this run. Awesome to see though

Edit: posted below

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You can tell 12z NAM will be significantly more amped than 06z just looking out west already at 36 hours.

Yep just posted a gif on our Philly forum. This will be a much better run

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is a hit

Yea that’s a pretty big increase in qpf. I’m still worried about 1 camp being inland and the other OTS. We need “just right” down here in Philly.

I went to California University of PA for op met. Back in 2005-07. That school was really growing at the time and had a very good program. I actually knew 3-4 posters from this site when I went there lol. Just another option for you to look at. Think they also offer a masters degree too. 

The trend is real. I’m actually more worried about rain than OTS. As Walt drag says we need the cmc to come on board. This event reminds me of 2013-14 where every shortwave trended better at this range. I really think this ends up being a 6-10” event in the suburbs. These types of waves seem to always trend wetter and stronger. It’s pure stj & with today’s ocean temps expect a juicier system