Heisy

Just now, dssbss said:

Probably charges by the house.


.

? 

23 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

18z Euro is a Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and coal region jackpot. Feeling good going into the 0z runs. Let’s hope there’s no 50 mile jump north like there was with the December storm. I’d actually feel better if we saw a small jump south.

I’ll make last second call Tom around 9-10 but I found a motel in Pottsville, thoughts

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed seems like we would do better based on low position which seems to be trending our way

It’s occluding by that point 

18z ggem

Yeah, that’s 100mm snow gradient west burbs of Philly. 4 feet? Lol overdone but highlights the ccbs potential

6 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What are you seeing that the models aren't? Enlighten us.

20 years of following the eta and NAM model. Run after run during big snowstorms. I’m not saying nyc region isn’t doing awesome in this storm at all, what it did for pa and nw sections is a joke that’s all

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Don't worry about the 18z nam.  It was LI weenie porn.  

It’ll be completely different in 6 hours

Wouldn’t trust the NAM until tomorrow. It’ll look all goofy and then a random 6z run it gets its act together. Happens all the time with this pos.  All I do is use it literally as the storm is happening to get last second adjustments. Even then it sucks. The last December storm I chased I changed motel reservations because THE 12z NAM literally 3 hours before the first flakes shifted south and the max ended up going N of me.. I’d literally bet a cool g to anyone on this

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM looks a lot like the para GFS hmmm

Also more realistic looking digital snow map and man the kuchera ones are starting to bug me raise expectations through the stratosphere in every storm. 

 

They only tend to verify inside the ccb, as we saw in December with 40 at bgm 

Just now, LVblizzard said:

I’d go near I-81 if I were you. Maybe in Lancaster/York or the coal region.

Yea that’s other option forgot to mention. I like west more than N

Probably will decide tomorrow afternoon after 18z gfs but probably headed to Berks or poconos, unsure yet though

Just now, RedSky said:

No longer fighting confluence or slow transfer it looks more like Jan 2016

How’s snow growth looking in the ccb? Any good skews? 

Ukie well north of last night

8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

CMC drops over 60 hours of continuous snow for many of us. Snow starts tomorrow afternoon and doesn’t end until Tuesday night.

I’m starting to feel like someone out near York, Cumberland and n/e of there see 3 feet

1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

How good is the RGEM at this range?

Meh. I’ll take it over the NAM but wouldn’t trust it until tomorrow. Just like that it was south 

I’ll take the Rgem, anything that shows south is a positive guys trust me. 

Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. 

The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772

Yeah it would be nice, however check out DTs latest video. He showed the snow it had forecasted for southeast earlier this week. In less than 3 runs it completely shifted from like nothing to a hit 1-2 days out. That model has burned me big time when chasing storms.

I told myself after I didn’t go up to bgm that I will never not trust the EPS near game time, ever again. 
 

that being said, please come south NAM

Just now, Newman said:

Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29

The first weenie ledge of my life. Was the first year I learned how to look at the models (AVN, EURO once a day, NGM, ETA etc) euro and eta backed off and sent it north but AVN kept hanging on. Since AVN out performed the ETA in the dec 30 2000 storm and the earlier December southeast event Mets hanged onto it to their doom. 

In my view 6z eps has less expansive precip than 00z up near pa N border and just increased inside the ccb 

Just now, pitmd said:

At what point would we expect consensus on where the ccb will setup?  

 

Honestly never lol. Probably the model runs Monday 6z. I’ve storm chased enough storms to know there is never consensus until the storm is on top of us 

This setup is also slightly abnormal. Precip will explode over the region instead of developing farther south and expanding north. You can see that with the dry slot Over DE. If it forms too far N like NAM city is fooked for 12”, would be more like 4-8 From waa snows 

Just now, MJO812 said:

February looks wild 

Yeah def some opportunity 

Just now, MJO812 said:

The precip just expands

Eh, if you push that strong of a ccb band that far north there will be subsidence on the south side. I’m not complaining about the run verbatim, it just gets scary if you factor normal nw trend ticks we usually see

4 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z Euro holds serve for those wondering. 12-16" widespread

It pushes the ccb north though, still at a range where could see it keep ticking N