Heisy

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Not sure there are many in that forum. It’s pretty dead. This is the place to be in the mid-Atlantic.

A lot of the Philly pros/posters migrated to phillywx.com FYI, that’s why it’s dead there

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

I always want the big dog, but.....if you told me I could have wall to wall cold but there would only be 2-4 and 3-6 events and no big storms....I’d take that in a heartbeat. What I really love about winter is the winter landscape and staying power.

Some of us are like that and others are like me, give me one HECS a winter surrounded by temps in the 60s. I track for severe storms, 3-6” are fine but at the end of the storm you’re always pining for more. Idk. We need a shift N at 00z stop the bleeding

the main culprit is that shortwave near N New England, been trending stronger each run

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

DT first crack...

 

Wow, aggressive 

The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping 

I’m ok right now. Need this to start ticking back N. Big ones almost always tick north as we get closer so we’ll see. It’s a fragile setup but idk I got good vibes rollin. Worst case I storm chase Lewis de lmao

Models really honing in on two maxes, there’s that heavy spot in the ccb and also the fronto magic you see towards C Nj, placement of those two will wobble around 

8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. 

I count 18/20 with 6"+

9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues....

 

Did the cmc ever update?

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl.

Omg that’s so true. Unfortunately I remember the March 2001 one because the hoisted that pretty early 

Just now, Anyweather said:

Do you have a 2m wind speed?

This is more important, moisture influx, gotta keep an eye on it. As a Philly residence this run was a dream, but will it hold? 

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I agree.... so $100 on the GFS?

Is it the handoff/transfer that’s causing the gap of light precip in SE pa, N de etc. seems that region is stuck between dying waa and too far southeast to benefit from coastal.... aka how much for philly? 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

All it takes is one cave by gfs and all gefs members follow

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Exactly. It’ll keep ticking each run, I’ll bump this later but I would bet before this storm happens the gfs has more snow on a suite than the euro for dc. 

There’s a huge signal right now for the fronto band to be perfect spot from around Trenton and up through nyc into SNE. 
 
you could see that blob on the eps as well highlighting that qpf max

might be chasing up to you guys if this is what we see happen

Just now, Ji said:

We need to gain a model tonight

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

I agree, would be nice to get cmc or Ukie. Gfs just a bonus 

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I've seen the NAM doing better at hr84 than the globals. Was it during the Jan 15 storm the last time we got Nam'ed?

I feel like the NAM at H5 has been better at the ends of its range than it used to. It still sucks at qpf placement and amounts though. I just don’t see the crazy wacky runs 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals?  That is usually a sign of a big one

Yeah I’d put the NAM in gfs camp. It’s a lot faster than 12z euro is 

20 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

So the gamut of solutions ~90 hours out includes total whiffs, and/or a mostly rain event (with over an inch of QPF)... I wish I could get more excited, but this is FAR from a 2016 setup, it appears.

 

I am rooting for the GFS... just give me a 2-4 inch WAA snow, then maybe another 1-2 inches with the wrap-around showers, the Euro is threading a needle that is more likely to go the JMA/KMA/NAVGEM route.

Is this a troll?

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

This looks beautiful. I'm assuming the only reason we aren't being blued/yellowed is because it's an ensemble run? That's my main issue. Our big storms, the deform and even WAA snows show 1-2 inches an hour, sometimes even higher. This shows like a quarter inch to a half inch an hour.

This is the control run not a mean. 

9 minutes ago, catoctin wx said:

Exactly the one I was thinking of when he posted that. What a storm that was around here


.

That was more of a pure Miller B. Basically just bowling ball that dove southeast out of Canada. This one I’d say is Miller a/b 

I posted it last week when people got all excited about the gfs showing that mirage blizzard. The gfs is currently ranked dead last at 120 hours. It’ll slowly coave to the euro like it always does. I only personally ever use it at this range to verify that a storm is possible. Once under 84 hours it’s okay. The JMA has better verification statistically than the GFS at day 5

Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. 

You guys focus on cutters way too Often, you have to keep your eyes on the prize, aka post cutter fun 

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

How reliable of a model is the NAVGEM   its Very Bullish on the Big Storm/Slow Crawl Idea, looks like it would destroy Richmond to NY even though it only goes out to 144

It’s not. The old weenie rule though is when it’s amped that’s a good sign.

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS, I will take it...control and EPS mean

Psu will feel a lot better about that 6z control/eps run. The PVA and heights were better aligned for a capture. 

3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

 

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows. 

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

Can you post an H5?