Heisy

Look at that stinger from md up through poconos etc. that ccb needs to chill now though worried about further nw ticks

If that ccb band pushes nw it’ll also push the mix line south of it at the height. Philly 6-12 is fair atm, burbs 10-20, we need to survive one more day of runs, if we’re good by 00z tonight let’s roll. 

Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

I don't get it. I saw this first...and then 500 and didn't bother looking at the precip panels . Just shocking

It’s because the h7 low keeps trending N imo. 

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Some of these models have periods of light snow all day on Tuesday and that would just be amazing after getting a foot or more of snow. Love the mood flakes after a big event.

CMC wrap around is insane there’s flurries 1am Wednesday haha

2016 vibes for city, fgen sets pivot nw could be an issue, still would do great though, but March 58 vibes west and northwest. Someone might hit 3 feet there if these trends continue. I will Be chasing anyway so Idc lol

Very 2016esque vibes with the ccb band forming Nw on mesos. 

Epic euro run. It’s still snowing there at the end of the run. I’m all in

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure if posted (no time to keep up, lol), but I like these regional maps best - people should also note that they're only through 7 pm Monday...

 

 

My guess is if we see the euro go up, those maps will increase too

For my northeast Philly first call, (i always do%s until game day)

40% 8-12

40% 4-8

10% <4

10% >12

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

0z tonight we will have our final consensus. Looks like models, while having subtle differences with confluence, vort, and the trough... are definitely converging on a solution envelop. 

our typical fears as mid atlantic residents are alive and well here.... will the primary transfer be clean, will it be far enough south, and will h5/h7 pass by and then close in a favorable position near CHO to allow the precip shield to blossom on the NW flank and not just firehose up into Delaware / NJ. 
 

NYC, NJ, and coastal NE will score big from this. I’ve lived in a thousand times up  that way and I’ve said it for nearly a week - this has NYC Miller b special written all over it. That being said, we can cash on 6-12+ Type storm even with nyc being jacked if the cards fall into place on the transfer. 
 

Tonight’s 0z NAM, RGEM and GFS will be extremely key 

It’s never final consensus. I mean we’re at the stage where we can start talking about totals, but it’s still early. On our forum someone posted discussion back from 2016. Just 48 hours out the euro didn’t crush the nw Philly burbs and finally as the storm was literally starting it shifted N

Just now, RedSky said:

ECM Ensembles are interesting and say anything is still possible. Feast or famine most of them are big hits or weak sauce. 

 

You got the indies and control?

Just a heads up but HM on phillywx mentioned in a post last night saying ratios may actually not be good. He said it was too soon to say, but just throwing it out there. Has to do with the Fgen forcing etc I don’t want to copy his post without his permission though since it wasn’t a call just interesting discussion 

It kind of is similar to NAM with evolution where the h7 low is farther N once it spins near the coast you get the coastal ccb which rakes NJ

Just now, TheManWithNoFace said:

I feel like the wind today was undersold. Nws point and click had gusts to 35 for most of NJ, seeing widespread 40-55 gusts. Cold is legit. 

It’s brutal out there even down here in Philly. Cold windy sunny days are the worst

18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Good to see the ukie actually tick northwest. It had actually shown the bleed se yesterday before any other model so hopefully it leads the charge back nw up to game time

While the precip location is good it did increase the confluence wave big time. Just had a stronger upper level low and PVA  to make up for it

33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I see the family member was drinking wine again...the early call was of 4"+ (not 4"). I thought it was a stupid call, anyone could say that. But that's Accu Weather standard early call on any potential big storm...it covers their ass. 

What is wrong with 4+ 3+ days out? It just gives the general public knowledge of potential snow. Look at the models, no one knows. Euro could go even farther south at 12z while others have a foot. So idk. 
 

wish we could get a reasonable euro run today, if we do considering every other model gives us decent snow it might be game on 

We get a reasonable euro run today I think it’s game on, but this hobby is NEVER that easy. So I don’t expect that to happen. Maybe a slight tick NW? 

Outlier right now, will it be a trend setter or a blip, find out at 6z

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was just going to post this. Sweet dreams guys and gals. See you in the am. Tomorrow should be fun with mesos getting in better range.

What a night 

Ohh yaaa 

Just now, Rjay said:

 

Looks better I think right? More tucking the height lines

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its been very consistent with that look. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

CMC stuck again. Been sitting on 48 forever.

CMC doesn’t come out until 11, unless You mean rgem? 

Edit: Sorry SV maps overdo snow when it’s too warm so I never know how accurate it is for this model