Heisy

2 minutes ago, yankeex777 said:

Gotcha, that's fair.  I don't know for certain but I'm willing to bet the last couple storms this season didn't verify at even 10:1.  I'll take 10:1 at a minimum

Yea down SNJ towards shore could have snow growth issues. Hopefully we can hit 12:1 at times

1 minute ago, yankeex777 said:

What can we expect as far as ratios for philly-TTN?  12:1?  higher?

Just reading HM sounds about right. We’ll probably get 10-13:1, but he has noted the increased LLJ strength, while increasing precip, could hurt ratios. 

1 minute ago, bpjones595 said:

Sweet, and that’s just 10:1 

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, the euro relies pretty heavily on aircraft data because of the data void over the Atlantic Ocean.

Supposedly the EPS/control is getting an upgrade this week. stormvista advertising on the homepage fyi

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem likes Philly 

Awaiting snow maps but that might have 6” just west of the city, tombo says it’s .5, so might be 4-7” with ratios?

I know people down south hate em for good reason, but I wouldn’t mind a legit ice storm. We never get them in Philly anymore. Unless it’s sleet, we’re really good at that. 
 

Models are trending slower to shift the tpv out, as psu noted this years trend is your friend for next week: 

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Mine is only out to 114 and people already talking about next week.

For the cmc the black and white maps roll out around 11 thru day 6, and then stormvista starts rolling pretty quick after that

18z eps had less ridging vs 12z at 144 hours. We have a sprawling 1044hp to work with. Just need the confluence to trend better from the departing ULL 

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

What happened to the arctic outbreaks how exactly did they go MIA?

 The ULL tpv didn’t phase with any stj energy. Before, models were bringing the tpv farther southeast with the weekend system. Now it kind of scoots more ENE.

btw, 18z eps looked slightly better at 144 for next weeks system which I think is our best and last shot at a significant winter storm for a while. It’s technically the event I’ve been talking about for over a week. Ralph remembers me mentioning the heisy. Well I said it’d be the event when the AO breaks down and the tpv moves into 50/50 position, well... 

Para is about 2" for the city 

What looked like an extremely promising period for the city is turning to crud pretty fast. Going to be hard to get all frozen with these events down the line unless something changes fast. We never do "easy" well anyway. The event last week kind of came out of nowhere after a few busts fi you recall. Maybe thatll happen again lol

Look similar? obv no two every the same but just saying pattern both have that tpv in a similar location. There are differences though 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wouldn’t flaunt that on SM though.

Exactly, pretty sure that’s illegal. Especially at that amount? I bet he gave the money to someone else to make the bet but still...

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I wouldn't count on it, lake will almost be frozen by then. If you chase a LES event this year go up to the Tughill. 

Gotcha, thanks! 

34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Massive hit on GFS with big time LES potential behind it.

I may consider making my first chase up to Buffalo region for this one. I’ve considered it a few times this year but there’s been larger storms to chase all over NE. One big synoptic+Les snow event to chase and this winter would be epic for me! 

Better angle for the precip shield for round 2 so far, well see

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Can someone enlighten me with the 16-19th time frame? Our DTN Weather Sentry is screaming SECS. 

This is the period after the pesky ULL finally moves off towards 50/50 region. The issue is lack of a pna ridge so the the trough axis isn’t great. Looks messy at this range but far out so well see. Models differ on handling of the ULL 

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GEFS snow mean is way N and doesn't agree with the op much at all.

Yeah looking at individuals they’re all over the place. It’s a balancing act between favoring thurs vs fri and some even bring Friday N causing mixing issues. 

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at h5 vort or height panels on approach. Thing of the spaces between the height lines as highways (it's basically what they are). Then it gets easy to understand. 

The wed-fri period has "confluence" to our north or highways running due W-E. That keeps cold in place and the most important reason we arent raining/sleeting/zr'ing. Dont get hung up on anything beyond wed-fri. If the last week has taught us anything, cold/confluence on the models has been trending better as leads shorten. No idea if that will be the case again but no sense dissecting yet. 

Yep, for the OP; The arrow is our confluence and the zigzag is the ridging. 18z vs 12z for comparison. Notice the difference in the height lines as Bob noted. We need that ULL to be farther East 

I mentioned this in AM but my bet is one of the waves trends weaker and the other stronger. Like I’ve been saying our best bet imo is Friday. Has a better jet structure and more H7 juice. 18z gfs is best case scenario right now. I hope euro shows something similar this evening. This is a really good setup for mid Atlantic, could be some sneaky high totals in S de and S NJ too with some weak coastal enhancement. Well see. Obviously most favorable spot is west of city. Give me 5” of powder and I’m happy

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8".  Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area.  

Models seem to be all disagreeing on the progression of the ULL and any undercutting energy. We’re going to see a lot of different scenarios in the medium range

Gotta get that ULL over the lakes farther south and east for the Day 6 event on the gfs or you’ll just blast the mid levels

You can see the enhanced interaction here post Thursday 

Also here is the last frame. There is decent moisture and more NS interaction at the end here so there would have been more If run extended imo