Heisy

1 minute ago, Snowcane21 said:

Heavy Snow in 19116.  .5” in 15 minutes.  Winds gusted to 30. Very intense start. Unexpected. 

Wow! Still nothing here NE Airport, must be at my doorstep

Whats closest snow report near Philly right now? Birds which radar is that? 

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Then crash with your Dad...

Haha, well....I just might

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats an easy road trip for u.

Oh yeah. Im gonna be gasing up shortly. My dad lives in Warminster might just head there. just dont wanna pay for a room or sit in my car so idk what ill do yet ha

Just now, Birds~69 said:

It's looking damn good per radar...

26F

As always here in NE Philly living on the damn frigging edge. EVERY STORM it happens here lol.....

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What happened to 6-9"? Major downgrade there. 

With sleet and banding being an issue it makes sense. There will probably be some 8-10" totals mixed in somewhere NW of the city by the end of this.

Central/ N Montco is where id wanna be right now based on radar. 

12 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Snow hole if I ever seen one or just no radar return 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

That Northern band up thru just NW of Philly from NW VA is where you can kind of tell is where the higher totals will end up being

I personally really like the euro kuchera map as a good forecast. Probably factors in sleet/temps/intensity better based on it being farther NW

FYI IMO this is why the 3km NAM has like no snow for the city with part 1. It has this fronto band setting up farther N. Philly gets clipped with backedge but by then your mid levels are blown. Right now I think 3km NAM is slightly farther N than radar obs. We gotta get in that banding ASAP if we want a more 12km/EURO look. 

Going to depend where that fronto band sets up. Right now based on radar I'd say a euro/nam compromise. Southern edge and beyond from that band will have mixing/precip intensity issues. Could be very similar to superbowl event. The differences in models is pretty impressive. Keep an eye on the radar, but right now I really like places just NW of the city. Tough call for Philly. 

Pretty nice 18z EURO run. Especially for NYC. NE Philly gets around 5-6". Kuchera map NW of 10:1 

Does the HREF only run once a day?

let’s just hope some of the mesos are accurate with the fgen

My final call for Philly: 3-5” with a light crust on it by the end. 

Both NAMs improvements for the city. After that latest EURO run we may end up lucking out here. Has the main thump directed right at us. Yeah we changeover to sleet at the tail end, but the damage is done, 3-6" isolated 7 spots

20 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away.  
 

 

Here in Philly it's the same theme. The closer to the event the more confusing it is becoming. I think its the multiple shortwaves causing all the issues. Youre seeing a partial phase with the energy dropping down from Canada while the main energy is still digging in the south. The timing & strength of this seems to be causing increased variables. 

The closer we get the more confused I get. Goodluck forecasting for the city with this one. 

29 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z HREF, this model has done really well this year.. pretty much mirrors my thoughts

 

 

 

This model has rocked this year. Looks about right. 
 

any RPM love?

3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Yes - this has all the earmarks of a sleet fest....let's see if it changes when the 12 z GFS gets added to the mix - this forecast was combo of 6z GFS and 12z NAM

If it was sleety already I’d expect it to get worse with the GFS. I feel more confused than I did yesterday. Huge potential but even high end is around 6” or so. Sucks because there was a period after 12z runs yesterday I started to feel like 6-10 was legit

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So like clockwork the HRRR 12z comes in and is basically all snow all of PA entire event. Challenging forecast is this.

Out of range, anyone know what the HREF shows? NAM continues to show pesky warm layers I believe. High bust potential as with every damn event. I'll be happy if we can muster up 4" in NE Philly before any sleet. 

Just now, The Iceman said:

Rgem cut back precip totals almost in half though from 18z. That's a bit concerning. Hopefully just a blip.

18z EURO hinted at that. GFS just followed suite. Not good, but its early still. 

Not great trends tonight IMO. Losing the punch of the front end on GFS, RGEM, and ICON. Meh. 

Latest 18z EURO more NAMish, WAA extends from the "finger" like feautre extending from the south. Thump rides that boundary as well as the sleet changeover line. Heavier snow focused just NW of city, as we should expect. Still a fun storm verbatim. 

I still think main show for city is the initial thump. We probably lose some lift and mid level temps after. There are significant differences at this range on the models for what happens after the thump. It’s going to be the wildcard for turnpike N. The NAMs snow map looks similar to other models for the most part, but it gets there in a slightly different way.

in the grand scheme of things this storm looks better for the city than maybe any other event did at this range. I’m talking about consistency throughout each model. Last event the NAM never really came on board for Philly until real late etc etc. 

as for me, I’m going to setup shop somewhere NW of the city. Idk if I’ll be more west or north yet. I could stay home but with the timing I’ll be able to come home Friday. Isn’t like I’m diving 4 hours away or anything. 
 

right now for philly im still liking 4-7” with some sleet, but if we see a few more ticks colder at mid levels I’ll go 6-10” 

9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

18z NAM with a huge front end thump for the Philly burbs into the Poconos.

Beautiful

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Since you're new I'll give you the time frames that the 12z models generally begin rolling out.

845 am - NAM

930 am - ICON

10 am - RGEM

1030 am - GFS/Para GFS

11 am - CMC

12 am - UKMET

1 pm - Euro

 

How dare you leave out the JMA