Heisy

Nice elongated confluence. That ULL in s Canada helps keep the flow south. HP N of the low too so far

Looking good so far...12z gfs

Not bad. Probably not worth discussing with this model at this range, but It does look like It would be a close call if we saw beyond 180.

Icon looks pretty good at 171, nice confluence. Good start to 12z imo idk I got good vibes today

I’ll let others explain better, but basically when a low pressure hits a high pressure and a new low forms. Here is a random map I pulled off google showing the two lows. The secondary is the one forming near the coast.

I’m a 2.5 year met student drop out so I don’t have much to work with. I didn’t have to make a long post. Could have said. If you want something to keep an eye on see if the remnants of the trash system can help motivate this annoying bitch of an old man winter to get his act together

Thanks, appreciate it, best wishes! I live in Philadelphia so to make that drive I’d probably only consider it if there was a % shot at 15+. Like i said I have no clue what to look for when it comes to H5 or anything just the basics. So hopefully it looks good as we get closer!

On the way to jail as we speak.

Lastly, 18z eps has a slightly better look with the wave I just mentioned in my post. This wave would help slow the flow down a tad for that NS piece to drop in. Just my amateur .00002 cents

sorry for all the images in this post, but they do a better job at explaining than I do...anyway... Interesting development happened on 18z runs probably no one noticed but my sicko brain. Yesterday I noticed this on the Ukie but didnt think much about it at the time, but this “could” be a pretty interesting development. I also think this wave also helped create the mega bomb on last nights CMC...We’ve been talking about the propensity for NS storms to sneak up on guidance. That is true, but sometimes you also need the southern branch to play along. Well, take a look at the 18z icon progression today at the end of the run. The fail storm that we’ve been tracking is getting sheered out and leaving an elongated frontal boundary in its wake. The icon has this energy kind of meander in the south, but then the NS dives down and it looks like a phase is about to take place. 18z euro at the end of the run was elongating that energy more than the 12. why does this matter? Having that wave there offers a slim hope to kind of phase something. I’m pretty interested to see if 00z runs pick this up again. Today’s 12z runs has this feature, but since it wasn’t as pronounced it just got kicked east. Sorry, my meteorology lingo isn’t great lol. Images in order: 18z Icon (2), 18z euro, last nights Ukie, and last nights CMC

If we get inside 2-3 days and it looks like potential still exists I may consider chasing this. I don’t know much about LES synoptic setups but what kind of potential you guys think looking at for late next week?

First shot will be after the front on the 16th. So looking like 18-19th as psu showed above. Models are showing a pretty good Cold shot on the 16th with another pac wave behind it. Long way to go but I’d punt anything until then. Except for me I might go chase LES next week if that ULL look holds

Yea I agree, but just hoping for a general idea to stick and fluctuate better from this point

I think we’re toast before then anyway

This isn’t too uninspiring, though it’s only 10 days away! But what is inspiring is this look is on basically every model at this frame. We have a 50/50 and ridge. Now I’d like to see this look continue and actually get some digital snow

Your bailing Too soon. It’s coming brotha

Pretty good signal across the board for 17-18th period

This is amazing, remember learning about them in met school. Fun post. I do think day 8-15 time frame looks juicy

Yep^ I’m gonna keep checking this forum because if that ULL dives south I’m gonna go LES chasing I’m stoked!

I haven’t been on AM much been chilling over on phillywx forums since it’s kind of been dead, but was just reading back a few pages it does look like youve guys have discussed this time period. That ridge is legit and on pretty much every model now. Just need to angle one of those pac shortwaves correctly to give it enough room to explode. I agree...LFG fellas im pushing my chips I’m all in.

Yo ray. Think this might have some phasing potential too? Heh, now this run might have been a Jan 26 78 redux

Yeah early on I exited the run at 180. That is two operational runs tonight showing this threat. Hope you’re right I need another chase I’m feening

Woops I was way wrong. This CMC has a monster

Really liking this time Period for Ne and interior for a type b system in response to the huge

LOL somehow it goes out to sea but has a vicious vort