rjvanals
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Everything posted by rjvanals
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Tuesday morning could be a disaster on the roads if the NAMs are correct
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Driving on the ICC this morning I was surprised to see snow on the shoulders and exit ramps from ~MM 8-13
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Anything in that little pocket near Tyson’s?
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Progressed from flurries to very light snow here
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Flurries in Potomac
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18z euro would give most of us a white Christmas
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If we’re talking about Jan/Feb 2021 we got unlucky as the storms hit to the south of DC or just north of DC https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/27/dc-snow-hole/ We also had the storm around Presidents’ Day where a small warm layer at ~5000 ft turned a 6-10 inch snow event into a sleet fest around DC despite cold low level temps. We probably had a bottom 10 percent outcome for that set up and I’d take our chances w it again.
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Interesting that the 12z models still give us a bit of hope for WAA snow on Christmas
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Coastal is a loss at this point but maybe we can get some mood flakes with the system dying in the Ohio Valley
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For those who like a cold Christmas the GFS gives us a cold rain
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12/15 Possible I81 event. First inch of the season out here?
rjvanals replied to clskinsfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
Got rain/snow mix here in Potomac -
12/15 Possible I81 event. First inch of the season out here?
rjvanals replied to clskinsfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
If this was 6 hours earlier we would’ve likely gotten on the board w a minor accumulation even in the immediate metro area; just a bit unlucky -
18z GFS would be annoying
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Got the DC/Balt snowhole so it might be right
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18z Euro says Sunday is still worth watching especially for N/W of 95
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Impressive miss by short range guidance which even this morning showed highs only around 40 at DCA which is now at 47
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Interesting that both the Euro and GFS agree on a storm being off Cape Hatteras 12/21-12/22
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Euro looks good for the 21st
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Euro actually is kind of close for Sunday for a brief period of front end snow even into the metros
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Not sure how the first system can work even with a perfect track since the airmass ahead of it's garbage. A potential follow up storm that looks like Boxing Day 2010 is a easier chance to score imo
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Still think the 2nd potential window on the 21st-22nd has a better shot since the cold air will be established at that point
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Euro also suggests a chance 12-21/12-22 with a bit better timing
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Both NAMs show snow squalls moving through right before dawn
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00z GFS is totally different (not in a good way) for late weekend storm compared to 18z
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One example that pops in my head was 2 weeks after the 1996 blizzard we had tremendous flooding w the cutter but still had 2-4 inches of snow forecasted on the back side (w winter weather advisories). We got the flooding but obviously no snow and I wonder if that would still be a bust today.
