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rjvanals

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Everything posted by rjvanals

  1. Let’s hope the Canadian is right despite the much later start time
  2. Puts a foot through Moco 9 inches DCA
  3. Some flurries here in Potomac
  4. It's amazing how some posters delude themselves into thinking a storm 90+ hours out is a slam dunk
  5. It's slower and north of 12Z on Pivotal but not a terrible result
  6. It's slower than other guidance which gets the snow in here by sunset Sunday vs the GFS midnight start time so still some model wars
  7. ICON would get snow in here before sunset on Sunday
  8. I’d rather a few inches of snow to ice than a miss to the south. Give us moisture and I’ll take my chances
  9. Looking at the sounding it doesn't look like there's a warm layer initially it's just not cold enough at the initial phase of the precip for nucleation (only -6C; need -8 at least) then we get a warm layer
  10. Anything for the 1/10-1/11? Have Pivotal which is much slower
  11. Let’s not spike the football until we have real not digital snow
  12. 10-11th is close to be being real good for us and it’s good to see a storm is showing up at this long range
  13. The problem is at hr 87 we get a coastal low developing ~100 miles SW of where it was progged at hr 105 on the great Euro last night. This leads the low to be spinning on the southwest side of Newfoundland at hr 126 when the storm is approaching us vs the Northeast side like we saw last night at hr 144 which creates enough confluence to push the best snow ~100 miles south of what was shown last night
  14. GFS shows a 1pm temp of 8 at DCA on the 11th I’ll take the over
  15. Gets Atlanta close to zero in the LR with some serious cold across the country
  16. I'll take this run let's see if can set something up behind it
  17. Boundary layer is torched so more snow tv
  18. I’m down on this system since if we get any snow it’ll help push the confluence to far south screwing up both much higher upside chances next week
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