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AmericanWxFreak

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Everything posted by AmericanWxFreak

  1. AmericanWxFreak
    Looks like 23z-1z time frame is most likely.
  2. AmericanWxFreak
    ooooo I enjoy intense lines .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A lot of sunshine as of 1030am from just west of I-81 and east to the Chesapeake Bay. This will obviously ramp up our temperatures quickly into the lower 90s and our dewpoint temperatures to near 70s by the middle part of this afternoon. A low pressure trough is in place parallel to I-81 with a surface cold front sagging across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The combination of these two features, along with a mid-level trough and a right entrance jet max sagging into the CWA will allow for numerous thunderstorms, some severe, to develop and possibly forming an intense line around mid-afternoon into this evening. Both MLCAPE and MUCAPE is expected to approach 2000 to 2500 J/kg. 0-3km wind shear will be 15 to 20 knots easily in most places. The main threats will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Large hail and flooding rainfall is also a distinct possibility. SPC has Northeast MD and northeastern VA in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. WPC has the heart of our CWA in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall that could lead to Flash Flooding. Timing on supercells or a line of intense thunderstorms reaching the metro areas would be 4pm to 8pm. Much of this activity will reach southern Maryland closer to 8pm to 10pm. Nonetheless, it looks like a busy and stormy day.
  3. AmericanWxFreak
    I knew that. Doh. Seems to be pretty good agreement on 00z arrival
  4. AmericanWxFreak
    I don't think I have ever seen you guys use this for severe, but it looks like a good time later so I like it and am expecting it to be right - RGEM lol
  5. AmericanWxFreak
    Ends up splitting Central MD but sends quite the bow thru NOVA
  6. AmericanWxFreak
    Trouble brewing in that area from Sterling to Potomac.
  7. AmericanWxFreak
    Seems like we’re just seeing this precip max just waffle around. Someone’s going to get some trouble tonight it’s just a matter of where.
  8. AmericanWxFreak
    Yeah it’s menacingly sticky out.
  9. AmericanWxFreak
    Looks to be another small hook forming in SE Hoco near Savage
  10. AmericanWxFreak
    Yeah that looks kinda tight.
  11. AmericanWxFreak
    Pretty intense gusts just now in Columbia.
  12. AmericanWxFreak
    That kink entering HoCo looks at least semi interesting
  13. AmericanWxFreak
    D3 SLGT too
  14. AmericanWxFreak
    So we thinking this initial activity blows through and we get a the main round a couple hours later?
  15. AmericanWxFreak
    Showing more discrete activity like before or is it getting us w the line/bow?
  16. AmericanWxFreak
    Crazy crazy CG in Columbia. WOW.
  17. AmericanWxFreak
    Looks like some stuff initiating out near Martinsburg WV
  18. AmericanWxFreak
    Of course all the activity to the east forms too far E and SE
  19. AmericanWxFreak
    Meso signature on the Manassas cell on RS
  20. AmericanWxFreak
    Seems reasonable.
  21. AmericanWxFreak
    Since there isn’t a ton going on locally, can we appreciate the cell blasting thru CPA near Benezette? Good god.
  22. AmericanWxFreak
    Yep, just saw another flash. I’ve had the random instance like this on occasion but this is the most consistent lightning I’ve seen removed from a storm like this.
  23. AmericanWxFreak
    Just posted in Obs thread about that. I am sitting outside and looked down and thought I was seeing shit lol then heard thunder.
  24. AmericanWxFreak
    Just got lightning and thunder in Columbia - odd.
  25. AmericanWxFreak
    aaaaaand on to the next one
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