frostfern

All this humidity in the air, but it’s impossible to squeeze out any meaningful precip.

zzzz…. bleak. Very Republican precip pattern. Rich get richer, poor get poorer. Forever.

At least it isn’t a Herculean feat to even get a thunderstorm where you live. It’s like nighttime complexes no longer exist here in West Michigan when they used to be like 80% of our summer precip. This year in particular the main EW frontal zone is either over the Upper Peninsula, or it’s down in Illinois/ Indiana. The transition is a single day, and of course storms fail to fire over Lake Michigan and only get going once the front has passed to the southeast. We also never get those 40 kt low level jets aimed at Michigan these days. They pump moisture at Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, and even the UP for days, but fizzle to nothing whenever the boundary sinks south into my area.

Okay. I didn’t know what you meant by weakness. In some cases it’s an area where evapo-transpiration is higher due to recent rain. It’s the same feedback that fuels rain over the Amazon, but over here it’s agriculture, not rainforest.

It seems you’re just in stagnant large-scale pattern favorable for afternoon airmass thunderstorms. As for a particular local storm, it can be lake breezes, higher terrain, or urban heat island. Nothing to do with glaciers or anything mysterious.

Small low topped CB just wondering around the SW side of town teasing. Again not tall enough for thunder. It seems like the updraft has to reach the tropopause before it can get beefy enough to spread rain on more then 1 square mile at a time.

GRR radar undergoing maintenance, spuds pop up. Coincidence?

I cannot remember a lake shadow as bad as this summer in my life. Storms used to happen at night unaffected by the lake. It used to rain at night. Now all convection is diurnal and completely dictated by local geography.

Cell tops are only 20k. These are small warm showers so far. The cells by Lansing broke the inversion and are around 40k.

Well, a few specks of 40 dbz aloft. Come on man!

Looks like a micro-cell trying to push up just north of Holland. Hope the next scan is over 50 dbz. So far showers are struggling with some kind of mid-level inversion or something.

Definitely some towers around. Storms may erupt overhead any moment, but too late for the lakeshore north of Saugatuck.

Tired of anvil sprinkles. I think afternoon is poor timing. After 8pm storms are not so suppressed by the lake. Afternoon meso-high is what suppresses everything.

Showers over the lake are struggling to get going yet again. Chicago + south lake line misses south and blocks the moisture.

I’m afraid I get the gap again. What a summer.

It was pretty impressive for GRR to hit 90 before noon. Dry soil feedback / dewpoints mixing down to around 70 boosted the heat. In ideal conditions that would be a setup for upper 90s. Increasing clouds and strengthening wind off the lake is putting a lid on this afternoon though.

Last night’s plume came from the Mississippi Valley swamps and Illinois / Indiana corn fields. Briefly hit upper 70s this morning but the ground is so dry it’s mixed down to the lower 70s now IMBY. Also already over 90 before noon is impressive.

The current squall line over Northern Lower is more impressive than expected. The southern outflow boundary might act to really concentrate the steam flowing up from Illinois. I don’t see those dewpoints mixing out so easily this time.

You must have good soil. I don’t water my grass and it’s 90% brown. I am watering the two young trees I have in front so I have some green surrounding them.

Similar here. 0.2” of mostly light rain. The heavier rains hit downtown and areas northwest but missed the east side. Interestingly there was a weak tornado in Allendale and that area and north got a needed soaking as well.

Got two rotating cells here in W Michigan. Ottowa County now severe warned. Newaygo not warned yet.

Some garden variety drought relief incoming. There is a screw-gap between two more solid MCS areas though. Best rains probably missing a few miles north and west of MBY, but at least they need rain too.

I got .33” from early day shower, but it came so fast most of it ran into the storm drains without soaking in. After that it was a few drops, then some rumbles off to the east as the line reformed. There was 1500 j/kg CAPE over the lake (as opposed to 2500 j/kg inland), but it seems lower apparent temperature / higher density over the lake can slow down storm outflow to the point unstable parcels are no longer being lifted enough to reach free convection. That and the line was way out ahead of the MCV / low which the CAMs got wrong somehow.

GRR In addition, at the MCV rotates east into Michigan we will see our deep layer shear increase. Moisture (surface dew points in the 70s), instability (MUCAPE of 2,000-3,000 j/kg) and lift via the MCV along with shear will all be in place this evening. We agree with the slight risk area via SPC given the parameter space this evening. The HREF 4 hour reflectivity max tells the story quite well, in that our diurnal convection will fade into the evening and the focus will shift to the incoming line. The lake is quite warm and we do not expect a decrease in intensity as the lake may actually give the convection as boost. The lift via the MCV will help storms as well. So, bottom line...expecting a line of storms this evening with wind being the main threat. An isolated tornado like what has happened already this afternoon in Wisconsin is certainly possible later this evening in a QLCS mode in areas where flow backs to the southeast or east ahead of the line. Showers and storms sweep out of the CWA by 2am-3am. HREF was wrong. The lake always seems to kill storms during peak heating hours.

Got screwed again with the rain. Line falls apart over the lake then redevelops east of me. I’ve never seen the lake shadow lock in this hard all summer long.