frostfern

I want to murder the GFS. Next weekend is a horror show on all the models though. Just please let it be the end after that. Thunder weenies are going to suicide if this dumb pattern persists.

It's all virga so far up here. Only felt a sprinkle or two.

Up here in Michigan May 2018 kinda crap. Stuck on the north side of the warm front with constant rain for the first half of the month. Only south of I-80 saw the sun. Overnight lows were mild enough for things to start growing, but it didn't really get nice until the end, and at that point it was summer. Summer started early, but there was no pleasant spring with sunshine and temps in the 70s. Went straight from rain and 50s early to 80s and 90s late. Not that I wouldn't take 80s and humidity over cloudy and 40s and 50s.

What is "mild" anyways? I had one of the worst fevers in my life back in early March, but since I was only bedridden for 3 days and never felt so bad I might die if I don't go to the hospital I couldn't get tested. For COVID-19 it wasn't that bad, but I'm having a lot of trouble believing it was something else because I'm 40 and haven't had influenza since childhood. The symptoms were either influenza or a short COVID-19 case. A positive antibody test would make me feel better. It's still worth it even if false positives are possible. Whatever it was my wife got it exactly a week after me. Both my parents were exposed to us before I realized it might not have been influenza, so I was nervous for a while. My father has heart disease.

I noticed the snowpack in the zone southeast of James Bay has continued to increase over the past month. That might have something to do with this stubborn Eastern US trough pattern. The spring melt has failed to reach the 50th parallel anywhere east of Winnipeg. Zone between 45 and 50 has lost some snowpack, but it's stopped as of now and won't resume for several days. We really need a good torch to knock back the glaciers of Ontario and Quebec. Lengthening days and higher sun angle does no good when it all gets reflected off snow. The Canadian prairies now being snow free and warm only seems to amplify the annoying NW flow and eastern Great Lakes digging.

Every month has been some variation of March or November for the past 5 months.

I think the new semi-permanent northeast Pacific SST warm anomaly has slowed the polar jet and increased the amplification of the climatological Rocky Mountain ridge + Hudson Bay trough. The northern hemisphere has warmed overall, but climatological northwest flow has become more amplified over the eastern North America. This will definitely cause cold springs as long as the north winds are coming off lingering Canadian snowpack.

Is it time I pony up some of my quarantine stimulus check money to watch the 384 hr Euro? Or will that just make me more depressed? I don't understand why the weather gods have to conspire to make 2020 even more hell-year than it already is. Just need a little hope please. I suppose it could be worse. My neighborhood didn't get flattened by a tornado. I mean, I feel bad complaining about the weather of all things but I just need something to look forward to after rona-hell.

Fixed that for anywhere east of Lake Michigan and north of I-80. Also, "winter" = London-style. Cold and damp but no real snow.

There will probably be some thunder over there. The freezing level is real low so graupel will almost certainly make it to the ground. Stronger updrafts may have some small hard hail too. I don't think there will be any thunder in my area but still could see some graupel and gusty winds. This setup reminds me of mountain weather. Dry atmosphere with steep lapse rates and low freezing level.

At temperatures between 0C and -40C you can have either water droplets, snow/ice crystals, or both. It all depends on the type of aerosols present along with the temperature and humidity. At temperatures below freezing the ice crystals are generally much larger than the liquid droplets, so they will slowly fall and separate from the part of the cloud that is liquid droplets.

I just found out the cell I barely got out of the way of did drop 2" hail in Plainwell, Michigan. Looks like I high-tailed north just in time. I did run into a solid line of 60+ dbs in the dark driving north, but the hail thankfully didn't get bigger than dime size.

Chasing was pretty frustrating as elevated cells looking intense over central Lake Michigan heading straight for me weakened as soon as they moved inland. The mesos that finally made it inland over Allegan county were messy and surrounded with rain, plus it was getting dark. The lightning was incredible though. Not a ton of CGs, but very very frequent strobing. Sadly I wasn't able to find a clear distant view of the towers moving away as there was a lot of low cloud / haze in the way every time I checked. August 29 2019 was a better show only because it cleared out very well giving a perfect 25 mile view of the upper parts of the CB towers and anvil-crawlers.

Barely north. The boundary seems to be directly over MKX at the moment.

This pocket of cells is just barely north of the surface warm front. Have to see what it does when it moves out over the lake.

I see initiation just north of MKX. Tops already at 40k ft.

I don't know how you chase hail. It seems if you get in front of a hail core it's pretty damn hard to find shelter. A gas station canopy is usually a really bad idea and an underpass is even worse. One time I left my car under the gas station canopy and went in the store. Wasn't expecting the car to be spared if golfballs did fall. That time it didn't get bigger than nickel size but I was kind of worried based on the radar and didn't think I could drive away fast enough since it was more of a bow than a cell.

No. That was the year before (2012). I didn't chase anything that day. May 20, 2013 there was a small cell that developed in southern Newaygo county then moved into Mecosta county. I just kind of watched it go by to the north then drove in behind to look for hail on the ground. You were lucky to get that. I've never seen a real tornado, just waterspouts.

I saw 2.25" stones melting on the ground while chasing behind a storm here in Michigan. May 2013. Don't know if that counts. I couldn't afford to total my car. As for falling hail, I've seen quarter or slightly larger a few times.... from safely indoors.

This is a pretty crazy setup for southern Lower Michigan. Reed Timmer is in weeny mode.

I'm worried this might be one of those scenarios where convection can't get going despite what CAMs suggest.

Losing electricity while under quarantine would be awful though. Can't cook and can't go out to eat. Even worse situation for field hospitals taking care of COVID victims. Are they even built to withstand hurricane force wind gusts?

That Euro map is hilarious. I thought it was in cm at first. It's inches! WTF!!! Funny how that storm keeps disappearing from one model only to show up on the other. It was on the ECMWF a few runs ago, went away, appeared on the GFS, went away again. Now it appears once more on the ECMWF more powerful than before.

Even if there isn't a snowstorm, these cold outbreaks in April can be interesting due to the increasing afternoon instability. Heaviest snow showers's I've ever seen in my life in Michigan have always been on April afternoons. They tend to be wet and mix with a lot of graupel though, so not much accumulation.

ECMWF had it one run then lost it. Now GFS is showing it.