WEATHER53

It’s not saying much but is saying something versus nothing

2009 analogs have shown up in varied ways since July. Does not mean it will be Snowmaggedon but Does mean it will Not be a warm and minimal snow winter.

Pretty big misread from NWS late last week as to this entire week. Too high on temps and I think we will see more misreads as we move along . This is not going to be what many think a Nina season should produce for the mid Atlantic

Cover all bases and claim confirmation

Next freezing chance for us looks like 11/2-11/6

Hope I got most of this right we set some low maxes record in early October this month. Bunch of the old records around that date were from October 1987. That November 1987 brought the history making Vetersns Day Snowstorm. I agree with the models!.

Surprising result at IAD and notice how winds were either calm or No sourthely component like previous 33-34 overnight lows. i predicted 10/22 for IAD its going to be mild for a while with next cold push 11/3-11/7

33 back to back lows at IAD

Things can change and they will have to because right now temp and Dp about 3F above last night same time i really though IAD was a lock during this stretch Any southerly component throws a wrench into DC area.we need wnw or more northerly. Dews were 28-30 this time last night and that’s doesn’t allow much evap chilling if this had been Canadian high moving in we would have had those 24/25 dews and IAD would have made it easy and maybe others.

I think IAD makes it tonight If DCA hits the NWS predicted low of 33 I will eat the fallen leaves and all other stations would be 29/30. I think DCA will bottom at 37.

BWI 33 and Andrews 32 but none of contest made it. Maybe tonight but the southerly component didn’t help last night and unless calm Thur morning for 2/3 hours it will hurt again

IAD went 9 consecutive hourlies with DP remaining at 28 as temps fell from 52 to 39 41 here at midnight is coldest at midnight for season

2am might be an early call unless it’s clear by 10pm kinda misdiagnosis in text of NWS until today as this isn’t Canadian high pressure forcing down the cold but rather intense low spinning in northern Great Lakes funneling down

To me the debate has not been clearly resolved as to does the weather cause indexes or do the indexes cause weather? I think this winter is going to be counter to what the indexes are indicating. I think it’s a battle between what indexes are indicating versus what analogs are foretelling.

And in my own quaint way that what I am saying

In talking with who I consult, this really looks like outcome analogs versus Nina anticipated outcomes. That itself is exciting and frankly after todays talks Im eager for this winter.

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this. I continue to increase in encouragement. Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold” I mentioned there are some Big years in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook

I don t think IAD can do it Tuesday morning or night so most likely early Wed morning BWI and RIC should be really close between 31-33 and DCA 35/36

2am on 19th for IAD

Even northeast Md gets a little to a lot

Have you written anything up?

0 to -1 F for season and 14-18” DC is a B winter.

I’m 0 to -1 on temps and bit more hopeful snow 14-18. Same basic idea

As time has gone by I have become more of a believer in “don’t waste the cold” When times are good we get two months of cold JF and Oct/Nov is such a waste

Moving back in, might be heaviest so far. 1.8”