WEATHER53

4pm summary update 27.5F, nw wind 23 gusting to 38, wind chill 16. Morning high 41 Afternoon high 30 Daily low the current temp of 27.5

Wonder if we can get to single digit wind chills before dark?

Thanks and that is great recollection.

Couple of guys from back around 2005 will remember this Joe B was an emerging star. Very enthusiastic he went for couple big events and nailed them and quickly garnered an increasing following Then came the Vodka Cold debacle where, whatever year it was, from mid December to mid February he continually touted the Vodka Cold pouring into eastern USA in just 10-15 days. It never happened and many temperature predictions ended up off by over 20 degrees. That began the ending of my model interest beyond 7 days which continues to this day. Now in 2006-07 the advertised pattern change did come in Feb and a good job was done in 2009/10 correctly predicting a return to cold and snow after a tepid January. So, a job really well done twice in 15 years. Can’t take those numbers to the bank

1pm update Down to 29.3,nw wind 25mph peak gust 42, WC 17

Have you ever woke up frozen to the ground?

Yeah that’s a legit high as temps did rise a little in the early morning hours. I hate it when we get those cheap highs at 12:01am

12 noon update-down a bit to 29.8 and wind chill 19 Prime time sun can’t get it done. The Ineffective Sunshine Watch has verified

11am update-Dead steady over last hour remaining at 30.2

10am update Temp down a degree to 30.2 nw wind 23 gusting to 40 WC 21

2/3/23 Blast thru observations Rolled thru around 6am Temp bumped up a bit to 40 and has fallen as follows plus currently 7am 36 8am 33 9am 31F nw wind 22 gusting to 38. Wind chill 22. An ineffective sunshine watch is in effect

Are you absurdly offering that in far NW DC you do not radiate out???? I’m 5 miles north of you and have NO radiational restrictions.

Hold on tight to your feelings and perhaps drive in all directions near the site and you will experience far more parkway surroundings than fully developed commercial. This is Not like true urban downtown DC around Willard or White House which is almost entirely developed commercial and macadam and concrete

Thanks

Where is the arctic front now?

When the river is frozen or at 32/33 the same thing happens. It’s also not in a River, it’s mostly surrounded by parkland with River to ne-e-se and mostly undeveloped land mass otherwise except due west. Something known as a Parkway runs right by DCA. There’s a reason things are called Parkways-lots of trees surrounding. Chesapeake Bay is very deep and broad. Potomac not. Annapolis does not have radiational issues

They have a serious radiation prevention issue. It’s not UHI and other excuses, it’s something prohibitive to radiational cooling. The proof is when it’s windy DCA BWI and IAD are within 3 degrees of each other consistently. When calm or less than 5mph DCA is prevented somehow from radiating out and runs considerably milder,

This frontal blast thru could be interesting with snow showers it won’t get real cold tonight, low around 30 but temps will not rise Friday remaining around 30 and nw winds 15-25 gusting to 35. Bitter cold Friday night lows 10-15 and wind chill 0 to slightly below zero

Statements that “this is how it goes in a Nina” are mostly incorrect. Precipitation has been more like a Nino , strong lows into the lakes with copious moisture is more like a Nino . The temperature profile has matched Nina Weather forecasting is like medical practitioners-practice to try and get it done better. The Enso used to be very reliable and many other theories have been circulated but SSW and MJO and the Ever Increasing alphabet indexes are like medicine-in a state of development and practice. They are too often presented as assured when really it’s unproven yet May in time become proven. As painfully as many react to this-models do Not predict a weather outcome; they give examples of possibilities. It’s a good thing my doctor does not say “try this one or try that one” which is what models project with each 6 hour run. I dont know but some of you very adept do know what mechanism forces cold air down thru Canada and over western PA and NY. That’s the source for snow in DC area. Plunging cold air into central USA and then rolling eastward just does not work, phase jobs don’t work, Miller As are our money .

The big problem is and always has been for 20 years on all the weather boards-when it’s shitty the salvation of a pattern change is Always 15-20 days away. Delayed but not denied is a Myth; a form of soothing. Just gotta deal with and accept present moments and circumstances and not get into the trick bag of light at the end of the tunnel. We had a great cold shot in December but mostly shit since then.

Quickly down to 31

Pearl clutching hand wringing is a staple. We still get a biggie winter every 5/6 years.

My fully shaded area still has snowcover . measured 0.65” on board at 7:30 am currently 36

Woke up and it’s snowing 33F and 29dp Snowboard covered , looks like 0.25 . Grassy areas covered but concrete just wet Radar looks like at least 2 hours of this to come ?

What do you think of the idea that it was 60 yesterday and we may get extra dynamics with the colder push?