WEATHER53

Unless it’s an error that 23 dewpoint at Hagerstown is very interesting ??

Good rule of thumb for DC is precip advancing from w-sw must make it into at least central KY and then it doesn’t get shunted south here. it looks like it’s trying to do that but not emphatically

What are the current and projected 850’s? Thanks

Maybe we get our first snow obs thread of the season out of this.

It’s clear and 31.9 dp 24. Would love a pre 9am start but it won’t

Sometimes I chuckle myself.

Perhaps an obs thread can develop out of this. I think we will need pre dawn onset to manage any accumulation

Not only is this very little like a typical Nina it may be one of the wettest ever Additionally, I have never seen so many low pressures be able to bully stout highs and move right up into the central lakes. Many popular traditional methods of forecasting are continuing the necessity for a new script

36 high 30 Low Solid blustery winter day

Obs threads only for me the rest of my career. No more model threads. That will delight many . Ji whines and most think it’s cute. Fact statements however are a different matter. That’s true nowdays in society in general. Don’t tread on wishes nor feelings. And my observations over 20 years of watching model worship are not empty. The resolution is scrap the pure math, Mother Nature is composed of more than that. With the incredible super computing it’s entirely possible to devise analog based forecasting instead of possibility examples. Simply put, use the trends from the past to predict what will most likely follow based on how it played out in the past. But the will to do that is absent because model projection cover all bases and then claim verification when one example turns out. Prediction is what is desired, not sampling examples. Also, good ole fashioned NOAA radio and even Euro don’t try to bite off more than they can chew. Pretty much 5 days and inside which is all that is realistically needed anyway. 7,10,20 day stuff amounts to nothing more than cartoons.

Mostly cover all bases flopping away from big coastal low and going to cutter again. It might be snow and 30 or rain and 50. We are not predicting which but give you examples of each. Whata science!!

Weekend washout and now a preposterous representation Tuesday night into Wednesday of a costal low suddenly showing up in a perfect location off mid Atlantic after being north of Pittsburg 6 hours earlier. When in the world will these models stop showing every possible outcome and begin to do forecasting?

Low on the coast for Saturday morning is now high in the same place instead in a six hour span. Just ridiculous.

It’s a very wet and non typical Nina so models can’t get things right except for cutters. Analogs from back on 12/24 showed the two week mild up with a cool/cold down two weeks later. That starts Thursday. Cold air is only thing that matters for DC, without it the placement and tracks of the lows mean zero and right now models cannot predict low pressure movements anyway.

If this belongs even anywhere it belongs in banter Ji II is not being sought.

Early afternoon thundersnow and 2”ph rates and one burst 1” in 12 minutes

Wrote that this would not be a traditional Nina like outcome in late September. Many comments over month of December have stated or confirmed same .

Around the 23rd I posted that 1/7 time frame would bring back the cold. Some coastal action portrayed also and within 7 model days, 3-5 still the best indicator, of event which matches analogs.

Jan 5th to 8th fits the two week oscillation pattern we are under so models showing storminess and/or cold will likely be right this time. Maybe we can even get a meandering low along the coast

Air temp dropped from 39 to 33 from 4:45 to 5:15

40 for a high but just 33 13” off the ground. Ground still frigid and should radiate out colder temps overnight than forecasted. The only exception is that one station that somehow doesn’t radiate out.

IAD two hours out of last 72 at or above 32

Who cares. It didn't snow Go get burped and changed

DCA at or above freezing 4 of the last 60 hours

30 for a high, 28 now. Rib roast is great