WEATHER53

What a science!!!

Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early Jan and now talking about March. just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working.

I think years ago we may have had a “model discussion” separate thread and a “weather forecasting/discussion” thread. There is more to it all then models solely so might be good to try the seperation again.

This is a weather discussion thread and not solely a model affirmation thread

There is no need to know that has an effect on 99% of the population beyond 5 days AND models can’t do it anyway so what the point its a self fulfilling confirmation effort on the part of models to show 30 and snow in DC with a low off VA and 6-12 hours later show a central lakes cutter with rain and 60. Wow. What a tool, no rather it is a tool (deragatory) shows everything between the coastal and cutter and then come confirmation time for federal funding you can claim you got it because one outcome did occur. I’m glad my doctors technology has improved over the last 20 years so he does not have to hunt and peck between all possible outcome. We have been sold a bill of bad goods that largely exists to self sustain and has very little predictive emphasis toward what is the most likely, most accurate forecast of an outcome. i know “it’s all we have” but that’s too desperate and is not leading to any advancement skill wise.

No first we would actually be in a good pattern and then the higher odds of one would show up.

All show examples of weather but no predictive emphasis to it

Presenting all of the opportunities, one of which will hit

Once the “two weeks away” cycle starts it rarely relinquishes. To a degree we did waste below average temps Nov. into Dec.

Delayed but not denied is mostly a cover up for a busted forecast. Timing is one of The Critical components of a forecast. Always two weeks away is a component of that which may after several months finally verify

We know you are a model lover with 6 paragraph discussions three times a day over the last 15 years I have had a different type of outcome in attempting to utilize them. it would be interesting for other board participants to chime in as to their experiences and beliefs . the 750 mike swing in a few days that you describe as “excellent work” I would have to disagree with.

750 mile variance is futility of prediction in action

So summary was 4-5” Sunday and Monday, blowing, never got above 20 from Sunday into this morning Good winter buzz.

Getting a nice winter fix here. Blowing snow last night most of that I’ve been on for years. Wind chill 0. Tonight did walk around at 11 degrees but slight breezes. Fun. Recommend it.

4-5” here since Sunday afternoon, very light flurries currently and 18

2” since we got to 7Springs snd steady light snow. 11F with blowing snow at times

26 in Breezewood and light snow I run a “Guess the temperate at trout pond” contest on 7 springs property 10 entrants max. $5 each. I went with 17.

On way to 7 Springs and passed Anaranth PA and it’s 31 and snow flurries

1.00” pressure drop it 18-20 hours gotta be pretty rare around here?

32.6 and trees, rails, tables chairs and some grassy areas are icy who are the guy(s) going to Wisp because I’m at 7 Springs tomorrow and we can compare notes.

Been holding at 32.6 for two hours

Up to 32.6

1pm obs tapered to light freezing drizzle and temp up to 31.4

Did you abandon your car yet???

Dusting of snow around 930 and now sleet. 30.5F