WEATHER53

Kinda spooky in a way isn’t it?

Yes thanks

Our daughters babies came we are the grandparents of twins, girl and boy.

I do not feel adrift and desperately need the 15 different models and indexes to tell me what the weather will be

8 years of observations is not confirming “data” everyday a new index is thrown out. I think I will just take a 250X250 square mile northeast of Bermuda and scribble out some brand new index correlation to winter weather in the mid Atlantic. Some of it is science with a proven background but mostly not.

This is mostly bogus and no determination or patten can be determined from 2010 forward

High pressures are being undervalued by models..This is the winter of well situated highs so add about 5-8mb to the crunch time assessments of 48-72 hours in advance.

Just rocked with 50 mph gust.

These highs will muster some mustard

Yeah, sorry, thanks.

There will not be a disfavorable oscillation for December. Whether it’s nw-n-ne of us the highs will be there and slide east and not se to form a se ridge. As these highs depart they will be replenished by the next one.

High pressure will consistently perform well this winter. That means sometime suppressive but sometimes good. We will have very few 33-35 and rain because of high being too weak.

Moderate rain mostly last two hours , 0.65 total

Some abnormalities are and have been occurring which make the typical prediction devices not work so well. where is best place to look at 500 mb maps and predictions?

Greenland high pressure then Mongolian high slips down to Greenland and cold. I don’t think many cutters with that.

Been a while now for me

Fighter jets in the air and this????

We’ve got solid to extreme high pressure from Alaska to Mongolia and it’s not breaking down

Fighter jet airborne or Im very sorry because it sure sounded like it.

Main thing is every depiction shows strong high pressure to our north. I don’t know if those waters north of Alaska have anything to do with it. Don’t know if the status of the variety of indexes are aligned to keep those water open and assist in high pressure being favorably set up to our north but that looks like the general battle plan well into December.

Where is the best place to look at 500mbmaps and 500mb forecasts without having to pay? Thanks

Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite. i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome then that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook. i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven. I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat. Any question please just ask.

76 and 84 are there and what followed was epic persistent cold 77 and frigid inauguration 85

That is a long duration high pressure up there with open water and cats and dogs living together.

Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more general way of explaining also that public will understand.