WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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Certain occurrent weather from about March thru August. Once that is obtained we “flavor” that with the Enso but we do not start with the Enso as determinant
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Mid-Atlantic summer hottest temperature contest
WEATHER53 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
How about a combo top 15 from winter and summer contests? -
BWI 11/10 IAD 11/3 DCA 11/24 RIC 11/17 Rainfall 8”
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Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers Dec: -2 to -3 Jan:-3 to -5 Feb :+2 to +4 Overall: -1 to -1.5 Snowfall DCA:12-16” Suburbs:15-20” Analog years 1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19) i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February. Looking forward to reading other outlooks
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Here come the inflow clouds, breezy and getting cooler.
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I think the ENSO results are Not as “in stone” determinant as we thought back 2003-2013. You had people swearing and livid that analogs could not be used because a referenced year was a weak Nina and the upcoming year looked to be weak Nino. I don’t know and I don’t think anybody really does what is the deciding factor. I do know that for the DC area if the cold air does not set up almost perfectly then snow is hard to come by but what controls and dictates that is up to debate and discovery.
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Yeah I think you are next in line behind Matt and Keith but very close and your stats suggest even better. I know I always value yours and look forward to it.
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KA has retired from the long range forecasts. Other than Matt Ross nobody had a lengthy track record like that, approaching 70% and to my record keeping since 1980 there were just 4 times where he missed on both snowfall and temps with 22 double hits and just the four mentioned double misses. i will be still doing mine and I’m about 62/63% but not as good as he or Matt.
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NWS in the overall does an adequate job. It may be a C or B- but they don’t fail. I don’t evaluate them as if they are the only source. I don’t think they have to be “the very best” source either. They serve the public. They may not serve us well enough but we have sharper needs and info.
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Well thank goodness Josh is OK. i wonder if this will effect his chase enthusiasm. Remember that video of him wading around in a lobby pushing some people on a mattress? We got to have a get together for him around DC
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Well it does look like that and the Palm leaves that did not get blown off were likely under water
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Mid-Atlantic summer hottest temperature contest
WEATHER53 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Anybody that gets two zeros, Bravo No zeros at IAD. -
Not a disaster
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Most lightning this season or last several. Had 4 strikes with instant thunder in 10 min period.
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Thunderstorm blew up over me and it’s pouring again
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About two miles north up Georgia Ave from Beltway
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Most thunder reports in recent memory
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0.5” in 20 minutes,multiple strikes close by, 30 mph gusts.
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On way up to Baltimore, around 95/32 intersection, car thermo dropped from 101 to 73. Looks nasty toward Bay Bridge.
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Looks like a tube in there!
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I’ve been in 3 60mph+ gusts torrential sheets of rain thunderstorms already. Dont have typical summer outlook this year but I think well below average number of 90 days like 25 even though overall temp average about 0.5 of normal Tropics busy will go with 16 named but just 7 hurricanes 2 of which major.
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I was in this at 95 and Balt Beltway, Very soft splatting hail, unreal sheets of rain with 50 mph gusts for about 15 minutes. Lots of cars pulled over, 20-25 mph top speed driving.
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Mid-Atlantic summer hottest temperature contest
WEATHER53 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
DCA:97 BWI:98 IAD:98 RIC:100 tiebreak SBY:98 -
BW parkway by blue plains had flying leaves and branches, no real limbs, would estimate 60mph
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Thunderstorms again over city
