WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
WEATHER53 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI:16.5 DCA:13 IAD:19 RIC:8.2 Tie SBY:10.6 -
14 total error is really good I think I had like 35
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I think things are underway, First the shift to wet in October and now temps looking colder. Pattern changes and can last 2/3 months around DC which fits with my outlook
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Thank you so much Different than mine temp wise but neither of us think much snow.
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38 here for low
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Where is the chart? Thanks
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I like to stick with DCA as the temp comparative even with it flaws. Reason is start using records from before then and it’s different locations and vastly different population and development Some of this record heat has 86 characteristics and that 87 was The winter it snowed every time there was a chance.
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Very early October heat matches well to the cold Dec and Jan, mild Feb. decent snow season analogs.
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Certain occurrent weather from about March thru August. Once that is obtained we “flavor” that with the Enso but we do not start with the Enso as determinant
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BWI 11/10 IAD 11/3 DCA 11/24 RIC 11/17 Rainfall 8”
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Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers Dec: -2 to -3 Jan:-3 to -5 Feb :+2 to +4 Overall: -1 to -1.5 Snowfall DCA:12-16” Suburbs:15-20” Analog years 1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19) i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February. Looking forward to reading other outlooks
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NWS in the overall does an adequate job. It may be a C or B- but they don’t fail. I don’t evaluate them as if they are the only source. I don’t think they have to be “the very best” source either. They serve the public. They may not serve us well enough but we have sharper needs and info.
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Well thank goodness Josh is OK. i wonder if this will effect his chase enthusiasm. Remember that video of him wading around in a lobby pushing some people on a mattress? We got to have a get together for him around DC
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Well it does look like that and the Palm leaves that did not get blown off were likely under water
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Most lightning this season or last several. Had 4 strikes with instant thunder in 10 min period.
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Thunderstorm blew up over me and it’s pouring again
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About two miles north up Georgia Ave from Beltway
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Most thunder reports in recent memory
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0.5” in 20 minutes,multiple strikes close by, 30 mph gusts.
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On way up to Baltimore, around 95/32 intersection, car thermo dropped from 101 to 73. Looks nasty toward Bay Bridge.
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Looks like a tube in there!
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I’ve been in 3 60mph+ gusts torrential sheets of rain thunderstorms already. Dont have typical summer outlook this year but I think well below average number of 90 days like 25 even though overall temp average about 0.5 of normal Tropics busy will go with 16 named but just 7 hurricanes 2 of which major.
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I was in this at 95 and Balt Beltway, Very soft splatting hail, unreal sheets of rain with 50 mph gusts for about 15 minutes. Lots of cars pulled over, 20-25 mph top speed driving.
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BW parkway by blue plains had flying leaves and branches, no real limbs, would estimate 60mph
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Thunderstorms again over city
