WEATHER53

Overcast now and temperature drop has stoped, steady at 27.5/13

27.7/12

29/10

The way it's projected is a very short burst and then nothing for hours then rain. I don’t think that will happen . Also it has not been projected that way for “couple days”

That stringy upper air warm front and then nothing for hours is yet another varied depiction and in this case a rarely occurring one

I don’t think we get much good evap off of it, a degree or two only, as mildvsurge is stout. It’s just that we are 25ish at the start.

I think NWS had in their package late yesterday that low 40s was to be high for today and Saturday. If I’m wrong then apology at prime heating hour DC area averages 37 currently, dews at 11, a skull crushing baro of 30.70 and brisk northwest winds. That’s a lot of favorable conditions for an event 12 hours away. So whatever might switch that would have to be a strong surge of mild and strong surges produce good results. i still think we snow sleet and freezing rain and then taper to drizzle with no steady snow eroding rain

Today’s forecast of low 40s for a high is not working here, currently 37.

The warm air is stout and the cold high stout so will be interesting observations as they battle

I think the mentioned dry air is Not a problem but rather an assist via evap.

In general that’s how most of these work. Snow then sleet snow the sleet and freezing rain then tapers to drizzle with no real snow eroding rain

They have the ability to get the strengths of high and lows correctly but they are still bad with where the low will go. Up until about 5/6 years ago and all 2000-2015 we suffered with models which at the 72 hour mark were moving the low from off the SC coast to thru the eastern lakes. At least we don’t have that anymore. I can rely on the strength off the lows or highs for forecasting but the nuances, such as path travelled or waa still elude the models. Considering the incredible technological advances of the last 20 years, models are still woeful.

Can we do a big boo hoo instead?

Models don’t matter. A moderate to strong low like that will send waa moisture our way. They almost always do and it’s the wrong idea from the models that it won't this time. What that means afterward I can’t say but there will be a fast onset of snow/sleet for DC of steady-moderate duration and intensity and then what happens next is what happens next

Me 7 Springs Sun-Wed so gonna be fun.

I think all the solutions from 0.5” for DC to 8” have been shown in last 12 hours so cover all bases parameter requirement has been fulfilled.

Couple years ago Christmas Eve it was 70 at midnight not too far away now at 66.

That looks like -20 to possibly -30 850’s for ski resorts if MD/PA?

I think it was more like 12/13 but still bitter cold

Most memorable from 94 was the day it was 11 at 11am and 1 at 5pm, overnight low record tying (for me) -6.

Still have 0.5 in shaded spots. Bare in son. Really wonderful down in the park 4:30 yesterday

I think for DC the very coldest run is 1/6-1/15

31.5 and icy on roads and walks. Otherwise nice snow on spruces with moon outb

Finally burst got me to 1.5 Pleasure doing obs with ya!

Heavy snow, over 1 ph rate, looks like 30 minutes more