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WEATHER53

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  1. WEATHER53
    Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth. Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow. What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates. Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue.
  2. WEATHER53
    Front moving thru Frederick right now and main precip mass about half north of Atlanta and half south with a northeast trajectory so all looking good right now
  3. WEATHER53
    This is a 2 week winter like 99-00 I liked this one right from the start and you know it from when you ribbed me about Pitt vs Boston. Pitt will be colder so that’s good and I said high wouldn’t suppress nor shunt East. Now it’s models but satellite stuff currently is looking right and the analogs showed this and cold that follows. Lots of different methods in agreement !!!
  4. WEATHER53
    Want to see now if the low goes over or south of Atlanta I want it over or north by no more than 75 miles. still looking like a non suppressive, non shunting 30.25 baro effecting DC
  5. WEATHER53
    Sunday:Showers and very mild with later morning early afternoon high of 65 becoming windy from northwest 15-20 mph with falling temperatures to 40-45 at dark. Rain mixing with and changing to snow around midnight and continuing thru Monday until about noon, windy, cold high around 35.
  6. WEATHER53
    Each and every possible outcome must be shown. Thats how you stay funded Analogs say this one works and don’t switch to cover their ass every 6 hours.
  7. WEATHER53
    I’m high pressure watching. We don’t need 1040+ radiating in from west. Too strong and shoves it out. I’m hoping we are at 1025 come crunch time
  8. WEATHER53
    HNY Holding hope for Sun night-Monday
  9. WEATHER53
    There are some historic cold stretches in Jan following Dec 2021 dry warm pattern in 1955 1965 1980 1984 and 2017
  10. WEATHER53
    30.25 over DC is snow production perfection
  11. WEATHER53
    No. Need it colder in Pitt than Boston to show cold air angled correctly. In this case that’s not an issue but strength of high is . How you been?
  12. WEATHER53
    If it passes over or slightly north of Atlanta then we are usually good. South of Atlanta bad.
  13. WEATHER53
    Rain to snow changeover work better than phase jobs. If there is rain then generally the cold air push is not strong enough to suppress nor run it due East
  14. WEATHER53
    Wonderful for you all Merry Happy
  15. WEATHER53
    Merry Christmas
  16. WEATHER53
    Looking at temps and precip this month the years 1955,1975,1980,1984, 2017 match up. I don’t do pre DCA. This is before the showers tonight . All of the January’s were cold and couple very cold. Hope is alive
  17. WEATHER53
    Surprise .15” for me
  18. WEATHER53
    Main thing DC always has to stay away from is never ending 1-2 week push backs. Once that starts it rarely stopped. Couple weeks ago looked like 12/27ish might start a change so let’s hope first several days of Jan do because once we start the 1/8, no 1/18 then we are most usually SOL. Feb 2007 an exception but far from the rule
  19. WEATHER53
    I think the group that got this started fist met on TWC board 20 years ago now. There was AccuWx too. Then Wright Weather in year or two.
  20. WEATHER53
    Cover all the bases to claim accuracy no matter which way it turns out. That’s why beyond 5 days is useless
  21. WEATHER53
    Overruns and we get 4” and is forecasted to switch to rain but usually just drizzles itself out
  22. WEATHER53
    Really This Again?-pattern change just a month away. Probably the most over stated yet under occurrent statement that gets made here, along with the 360 GFS always showing a big winter event
  23. WEATHER53
    He is correct. Very little that is ever confirmed comes from 7+ days out snow wise
  24. WEATHER53
    That area in KY moving east and increasing in moisture Vety dry though
  25. WEATHER53
    Lots of 45+ gusts Friend in Frederick 55.
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