lee59

This year 2 inches is meaningful.

Over the Cape

Latest forecast from NWS seems to have the coast and NYC with a general 2-4 inches, around Newburgh 6-9 inches and up toward Kingston a foot, Monticello area almost 20 inches.

It may be a pure elevation event, for those in Manhattan go to the observation center on the Empire State building.

From Upton: The trend with the track however, has been farther south and east, meaning a colder solution and therefore more in the way of snow, even along the coast. Much of the area will see plain rain for Monday, with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the higher elevation inland. As the low tracks east of the area, and strengthens, strong cold air advection will ensue, allowing a changeover to snow from northwest to southeast late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This time frame is also a period of when the heavier precipitation is expected. Heavy snow is expected across the interior, while there will be heavy rain for the coast. By early Tuesday morning, the changeover continues, even towards coastal areas, but by this point, the heavier precipitation will have ended. This changeover continues moving south and east. The snowfall forecast will be quite challenging as accumulating snowfall is possible, even along the coast.

The problem with this system from the beginning has been the lack of cold air. I think it can still be a major Nor'easter, with or without the snow.

If the storm is near Nantucket or the Cape, I would think we will get more of a Northerly wind. The problem would be how heavy the precip is.

I think some folks live and die to much on each run of each model. To me it has been pretty much the same for days. There will be an intense low off the east coast that looks to be somewhere near the Cape at some point or possibly near Nantucket. It looks to be east but retrograde back toward the coast. As far as I am concerned it is still very uncertain as to who gets what. There have been times when it is closer to the coast which probably would have been rain on Long Island where I am.

I'm not seeing this as a terrible Euro run. It is east of the Cape but retrogrades back to the Cape. Maybe allows a more cold air to infiltrate our area.

Snow has broken out near Dulles airport, which is about 20 miles west of D.C.

The precip here is very intensity sensitive. When it lightens up all rain, comes down a little harder and snow mixes in. 36 degrees.

The threat for snow in some areas may or may not happen. The intensity of this storm, however, may produce other threats, like very strong winds and coastal flooding.

The precip here is very intensity sensitive. When it lightens up all rain, comes down a little harder and snow mixes in. Down to 36 degrees.

Rain mixing with snow here, 36.5 degrees

CMC, GFS and Euro all have very intense Nor'easter off our shores now. Could be real interesting. If there was more cold air in place, might have been a good snowstorm from DC to Boston.

Not long ago New England was in the zone, now Jersey and NYC area looking a little better. As you say, won't take much to include you guys. Still so much uncertainty however.

The thing is with cold arctic air to the north and west of the storm, it makes the storm more intense and a much wider area of heavy snow and wind. With no cold air, yes it can snow with heavier precip. falling, especially inland. It is like shoveling cement if it even accumulates. As was mentioned earlier, we had a lot of good winters while the west suffered, this year is their year.

If there was only some decent cold air around.

To me it looks like starting this weekend and going into next week there is storm activity off the east coast. Still very uncertain as to the outcome of any of these storms. I don't think anyone can say for sure what the outcome will be. At least there is something to follow, better than most of this winter.

About a 1/4 inch here.

Decent snows as you go up the Hudson Valley. Looks like Kingston-Saugerties area about 3-5 inches and the Albany vincinity anywhere from 6-12 inches.

Probably high tides

Very windy here last night, peak gust 46mph. Plenty of rain 1.23 inches.

I'm sure the tall buildings can keep totals down, especially if your down wind.

At least that's a little better than what I heard earlier.