Carvers Gap

This comes in at night, right? Add in a snowpack, and that is at least a recipe for ice in valley floor locations.

I am not even sure that we are going to see the cold shot around Jan 30th. The Euro is more aggressive in getting out of the warm phases of the MJO, but I tend to lean GFS/GMON for MJO plots. Those are mid-February before things are fully reset. The strat split occurring now could get us in business by the first week of Feb. Model mayhem is probably about to occur. @Holston_River_Rambler, got any strat split goodies for us? I literally haven't looked at it today. I hope the folks I am reading are accurate!!!! LOL. Cause' I haven't looked.

Wind chill advisories have been posted for tonight for pretty much the entire forum area. For TRI, they expect wind chills to get to -15F. The GFS was very close to these numbers a 7-10 days ago. This probably won't be as bad as December of '22, but not sure I could tell the difference once it is that cold! This weekend likely will be colder. ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 AM EST this morning. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Even after snow and freezing drizzle have ended, icy hazardous travel is expected today and tonight, especially on untreated roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

@Daniel Boone, I am going to put the response to your MJO thoughts. I didn't realize I was in the storm thread. Also, check out those temps in Montana from the last three days! The strat split brought us this current outbreak and also likely this weekend's. We are going to need another one I think. I would suggest that the way that we have dodged warm phases in the past is with that set-up. I think winter returns(JB mentioned it today) due to that reason in part. Plus, I think the NAO will re-fire. I do think what looked like an early start to spring (March) is in serious peril if this warm-up has any duration.

When they are setting records like this in Montana, you know it is gonna get cold downstream. The are breaking OLD records with this current outbreak.

@weathertree4u2, I moved my reply over to the pattern discussion thread as I didn't realize I was in the next storm thread. Here is the reply to your question. I would say I am very confident of a sharp warm-up next week - spring like stuff. The return of cold continues to get can kicked. I am much less confident today about February than I have been since June - much less. I would say that we get a brief, but sharp cold shot from Jan30-Feb3, and then another warmup(not to the degree next week will be). The duration of that second warm-up will hold the fate of winter for most. The MJO is forecast to stall in phase 6 which is the warmest phase of the MJO, and there is no running from phase 6 - it is going to warm-up. Final hurrah of winter should be the final two weeks of February(maybe first week of March) as the MJO should be favorable then, and that is two weeks behind schedule. The CFSv2 would end winter as its MJO plot rotates and stalls in the warm phases. There is a strat split, and we are going to need to roll the dice(I know many don't like that reshuffle) with that reshuffle. As we have seen this week, sustained cold is the easiest way to winter. Until we get the MJO to cooperate again, it is thread the needle the rest of the way. So the strat split may be our best option so to speak. With the strat split, we should its effects 2-3 weeks down the road. I would encourage everyone to read back through the winter discussion to see the order of regions it tends to focus on. This current cold snap is probably due to strat warming during mid-late December. I would look for the NAO to reappear. Overall, and modeling doesn't show this just yet....I bet the upcoming warm-up is more of a thaw. This winter just has the feeling that it is going to be back after this week.....I could be wrong.

Portions of Interstates 81 and 26 have been closed temporarily in Kingsport as there have been numerous car accidents. Not sure those are closed due to authorities closing the interstate, or if it is accidents closing them. Either way, multiples sections and lanes of the interstate are impassible at this writing around Kingsport. These sections include decent elevation changes. https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/tdot-i-81-i-26-closed-in-areas-due-to-multiple-crashes/

Lots of snow showers this morning as the front is finally clearing this area. Everything froze this morning as yesterday the surface pretty much stayed above freezing for the entire event. Front must have finally pushed through after 3:00AM. Kingsport is a mess this morning, especially secondary roads. Stone Drive was bad in spots. I would guess our ratios were 8:1 or less. We sat right on the rain/snow line. We probably finished slightly above 6" of snow. Secondary roads are mostly a frozen combination of ice/slush/snow. Crazy storm. I kept looking to see it change over to rain, and it did not. We finally did get a bit of drizzle around midnight, but meaningful precip had moved out by then. I had also wondered if my area got lollipopped after reading returns. It looks like all of Stone Drive had similar amounts to my area. Pretty good thump for a lot of Kingsport w/ the south side of town likely suffering through mix and rain unfortunately.

Looks the Friday event could be a mixed bag for valley locations. GFS looks too progressive to me. The CMC is a "slightly off the coast" Miller A. The ICON is a cutter through middle TN Miller B. The GFS is a slider(best scenario) and OTS. My bet is this turns the corner. With the current storm out of the way, this should come into focus very quickly.

Going to be many places likely below zero tonight. After substantial snowfall for many, temps are about to get crazy cold.

And there is a storm to track on Friday it appears.

Colder than normal February is a beautiful thing to me. Most of my snows across my life at my location have been in February. There is some can kicking of the cold...I just haven't posted in a bit. It is more like weeks 2-4 of Feb as the MJO is gonna get toasty after the 22nd. We were gonna have to pay that toll at some point. It is possible that we may have a cold shot around the 30th, warm-up, and then hit the cold skids during the second week of Feb. I do urge a bit of caution to new posters (not you, Shawn). Originally, Jan 10-20th looked very warm. That can got kicked about ten days. So, any kind of strong cutter or storm is gonna bring down a lot of cold air, even during what looks like a warm-up timeframe. The first week or two of March could be cold but the jury is still out. This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96 which had a big storm, a warm-up, and then got cold again. I am maybe a little less confident that Feb is gonna be cold than I was a few weeks ago, but still reasonably confident.

For folks in NE TN, we might not have but a handful of hours above freezing for the next 6 days. Apple has my temp at -2 tomorrow morning.

Starting to look that way. I-26 between I-81 and Weber City is a mess. With temps dropping all day tomorrow, it is going to get cold tomorrow night!

The obligatory "sheet cake" picnic table photo....

6" for the storm so far.

I am hoping for the day you have to put a 2 liter back there for measurement purposes. Great photos!!!

Sitting at about 5.25" of snow. I hate it for the rest of the TRI folks who were dealing with snow/rain issues. Probably will come close to 6" of snow if these last bands work out.

Just a hair under five inches of snow.

I am thankful not to be in their shoes this evening. LOL. It is literally raining on one side of Kingsport a the moment and heavy snow on the other. That is a difference of about 7-10 miles. Good luck in the Burg!!!

I would guess it is maybe there now. With rates increasing over E TN, that is probably the lee side buckling the flow just a hair....Tellico would know more on that.

Yes, I agree.

We have crept to 4.5" of snow so far in my area of Kingsport.

For sure it wasn't the only thing....something pushed the warm air across the valley from east to west. That I don't know for sure what mechanism caused it. I tend to think downslope, but it may just be that TRI takes longer to get colder w/ east to west cold fronts.

Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out. Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe.