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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS is a slight improvement and obviously very cold after an operational like that. The SER forms later and actual surface temps remain normal under the SER with such powerful temps to the NW. Again, as mentioned above, that is a workable look even late in the run.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, it may be that modeling is beginning to "feel" the disruption of the PV which will induce blocking. Nothing is a given this winter....
  3. Carvers Gap
    I don't like the western trough deal on ensembles late in each run, but that is the consequence of no Atlantic block. However, the way the gradient stretches out(on ensembles) would probably still mean the boundary would move to our south some. Looks to me like mid-Texas to DC would be the boundary on ensembles. Storms would run that boundary speaking of later in the run. The 18z GFS is probably an outlier run(to other models...similar to other GFS runs) due to how it keeps reinforcing the eastern trough. All of that said, I am most interested to see if other subsequent runs of the GFS and other modeling begins to catch blocking over Greenland. Probably the single, greatest feature that makes this an outlier is the block over Greenland. I will also be interested in seeing the MJO forecasts during the next few days. What we can hope for is that the 18z GFS is catching a trend as it sometimes does. But we can enjoy it until 0z. I say that, because the GFS has been flipping from blocking to no-blocking like flipping a light switch. The 18z GFS does illustrate how a little help from the Atlantic could hold the eastern trough in place.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Accumulation amounts in the eastern half of Tennessee generally range from 4-14" snow with the greater amounts over the Plateau. Much of the eastern half of the forum area has 6" plus. edit: eastern half defined in this case as mid-state to the Smokies
  5. Carvers Gap
    AT 354, all of NA is BN. I suspect the GFS in phases 2 or 3 of the MJO with that look. I would be hard pressed to find a better run this season IMHO. Yes, it is the GFS so everyone knows the rules. But one can still admire that run.
  6. Carvers Gap
    What is interesting is that as the features on the map have retrograded a bit(trough taking peak in the West), AN heights have also backed into Greenland. Something to watch. And if you watch the NA 500 anomaly map evolve at 192, notice how the trough doesn't get stuck like it does on the Euro. Then, watch the differences. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020012618&fh=264
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS at 252....-NAO much?
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is interesting. I think the American suite brings the PV back together. So many unknown variables right now - more than usual!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the 12z EPS has a slight SER like the GEFS. I find that interesting because if the EPS is caving to the GEFS, then it likely means the GEFS MJO might be correct with phases 2-3 which is a win long term win. If one looks at the surface, EPS 2m temps actually beginning advancing cold air from the front range just like the GEFS. And at this range, lots of things probably still going to change. Good thing is the initial trough is still not track. Past that...crap shoot with so many things changing. Will be interesting to see where modeling goes after changes in the MJO today.
  10. Carvers Gap
    This run of the 12z EPS is really amped. All anomalous features over NA are deeper.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Out to 234, trough is heading into the East slightly ahead of schedule on the EPS. Some support for the cutoff but the strongly -EPO will kick it out. But with the moderate possibility the Euro is up to its old tricks on the operational, that operational run is probably not trustworthy after 198. By 258, very strong trough in the East...stronger than 0z. Now, how long will it hold? So we don't have a misunderstanding here, we know the possibility exists of the initial heading east and a secondary wave of cold diving West. Let's see where this goes.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks good out to 180. Looks quite similar to the GEFS and similar to its 0z EPS run. Bout to find out how much support that Euro operational run has....
  13. Carvers Gap
    And that cutoff is likely coming out of there at some point anyway...big storm if so.
  14. Carvers Gap
    All of that said, that is sort of how the 0z EPS works the eastern trough. If the Southwest cut-off low is wrong(and again, huge Euro bias), much of the cold in Alaska would be ejected into the trough in the East. Will be interesting to look at the control to see where it would have gone.
  15. Carvers Gap
    If I hadn't already seen a head fake this winter, I would say that the Euro at 198 is in error diving into the Southwest. No other model has anything that digs even remotely that much. When it gets energy over the 4 corners, one of its biases is to dig far too much. Certainly looks like it is doing that. It may very well be right, but it does not have support from any other model. It has scored one coup this winter with that look, so it has to be taken seriously. But it has also historically missed on multiple occasions with that look. Anyway, my interpretation is that is an error. Additionally, its depiction is completely different at 12z than at 0z over Alaska. Looks like it still will dig the trough in the East if it had about 36 more hours.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Interesting to see the 12z GEFS - always comes out earlier on Pivotal Weather. Anyway, it builds the aforementioned EC ridge/SER(very late in the run) for about thirty hours and then beats it back down. Overall, nice run. Again, it has been noted that keeping the trough in place is going to take some special mojo. Some warming is noted over the pole which likely means the PV might be displaced or be about to be displaced. It cannot be overstated how much this SPV/PV disruption is going to cause issues in LR modeling. Two springs ago (2018) the PV split and models never caught up.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Great to have you posting! We have a great group of posters from your area. Jump right in!
  18. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is funny right there. #subforumsnowhole
  19. Carvers Gap
    We will see where the ensembles take us, but both the CMC and GFS still have the arrival time for the trough around February 5th. I am using that date so we know if the can is getting kicked down the road. Tough not to like the synoptic set-up next weekend. GOM Miller A is on both the CMC and GFS. If we want snow, probably need the storm to strengthen some. A weak system will likely be rain. A stronger system likely results in snow this side of the Apps for someone north of I-40 in the eastern Valley. Temps are most definitely not ideal. What is encouraging is that there are multiple storms on both models. An interesting feature with this weekend's setup is the piece of energy that dives into the back of departing storm. It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS. If we get blanked on the initial storm, it could sneak in and give folks some snow showers and light accumulations. Keep in mind those little pieces of energy like to trend north over time.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Happy Hour on the GFS has come one run early! Model mayhem is well underway. That is just total wildness!!! Finally got a look at the CPC version of the MJO. It has backed-off phase 6. Dare I say it. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the GEFS is actually going to score a coup on where it goes next. The EURO corrected "sort of" towards the GEFS. The GEFS version would be very cold. I have noted more than a few times that this pattern evolution reminds me a lot of October to November. Wavelengths are changing. The pattern has been very warm, but has stepped down during the last couple of weeks. It should be noted that American modeling handled the MJO better than the EURO. This will be a week full of marginal events. Going to have to watch each one of them. Time of day could be a factor.
  21. Carvers Gap
    At 282, the Great Cajun Blizzard of 2020 is unfolding on the 12z GFS. Or should we just call it the 30A crusher?
  22. Carvers Gap
    Great post.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Tough week to be a weather forecaster. Lots of marginal stuff, especially along the TN/KY border.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Unless something changes, which it could, the trough on all ensembles is still supposed to arrive on February 5. That has been consistently moving up in time. As noted, this trough is unlikely to stick. What we are looking for is 4-5 days of a decent pattern and then try to steal a storm from that pattern. The GEFS MJO forecast (notably not worth much) this AM takes the MJO in phases 2-3 which are cold during JFM. It does this at high amplitude. The GEFS has actually corrected eastward with its trough likely due to that MJO shift. Definitely need to keep an eye on the Euro as its playing games in the West. As with the last head fake, that can be real but a lot of times that is a bias to dump a trough into the Southwest. I did compare the operational and EPS and they are not much different. The operational is just now at February 5 which is d10 and not reliable at that range. At some point, we need to see the operational correct eastward. But the Euro operational bounces around quite a bit at d9-10. I don't see other modeling dumping the initial trough west. We will see where the Euro MJO is this morning - not out yet. Overall, the cold is moving forward in time, but now that change will get into the "inside of d10" wheelhouse during the next couple of days. So, we should get a better idea on what is real and what is not. Still A LOT of plates right now that modeling is juggling. I said a couple of days ago that we were going to see some wild swings in modeling(some we like and some we don't) with this strat stuff going on. If real, that is a MAJOR wrench and modeling and tough to know where it goes.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And before I forget, great game to our resident Kansas Jayhawk!
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