Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Truly one of the more impressive runs of the NAM(even for the NAM!) that I have seen. It brings snow howling all of the way to the Florida/Georiga border. I have my doubts that it can get the Atlantic feed back this far, but a historic blizzard on the EC certainly seems plausible.
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The 18z GFS is loaded for bear after the cutter. Gradient pattern with a cold and an active pattern.
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It has more to do with the parabola of a the track. Need that entire parabola to slide a bit west. I honestly don't think it has room at this point, but let's see what happens when the get recon over that energy. I suspect we see one big shift(not idea which way) once models ingest that data. What we really need to hope for in E TN, is for that storm to just amp big time. If that storm is a monster which it could be...If we can get it just barely inside Hatteras with a deeper solution, that snow band might form one of the outer deformation bands as it comes through. Then, we just need that band so set up shop and hold there as the storm wraps up. FWIW, I really like the pattern right after that cutter. Have I said that yet today? LOL
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Agree. I am not sure it can work that far back, but was just swinging by to say that. Looks to me like models have a track and are now figuring out the slp is going to be a brute.
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Be ready for some changes in modeling when that occurs.
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We have definitely run out of the TIM model mojo. Time to put some deposits back in the account. Just thunder...nothing dangerous.
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No idea if it is even close to being right, but the 12z Euro ends with the coldest setup of the season IMHO.
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February 2015 and comparison to the d10-15 means of the 12z GEPS and GEFS. Not saying that happens, but that is a bit uncanny.
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Looks to me like modeling was possibly too quick in breaking down the pattern....OR the new pattern is just a reset of the current Pac pattern which we are in. That is splitting hairs slightly. So, if modeling is correct and is not erroneously perpetuating cold(that has happened before), looks like a warm-up for the first few days of February as cold pulls back into the West....and then the trough quickly gets pushed back eastward. That look late in the runs of the 12z GEFS/GEPS could deliver extreme cold if the look is real.
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Kind of raising our eyes past the weekend storm's horizon...Don't look now, but the GEFS now has a full fledged AK block late in its run. That forces the cold eastward. I had at one point though the clock might run out on winter around Feb 2. I think It plausible that we get to at least the 10th... The 12z GEPS has a monster EPO(kind of PNA) block as well. That trough which is going to go out West...it is modeled to roll right back into the East. Good changes/trends from the past couple of days. That may very well be the new pattern...If it is, we may get a couple of bonus weeks of tracking during February. That is a month which is known for frequent storms and changing wavelengths. IF IF that is real, that is a 14-15 type of set-up to me, ie cold an e plentiful precip. If that AK block is real, it might be tough to move.
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True. I would gladly take 1-2" of snow with the cold that will follow. Also, with 70-80 hours to go on this thing, I expect one more big jump in modeling as it gets closer to NA and gets sampled well.
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Last comment until the Euro rolls. The 12z GFS has a cutter (after the coastal this weekend) which drives the boundary southwestward. It is the storm after that which interests me.
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It appears the 12z CMC will be rolling on time. I will place all comments about that run within this single post. Out to 54, the RGEM appears to be a close copy of the RGEM at 12z. Substantial trend westward on the CMC. Not quite good enough to help yet, but one more trend like that....
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With the 12z RGEM also with a coastal storm, I am of the opinion we are now looking at a Nor'Easter. Not sure we can get into the mix as we are on the far, far western cone. However, enhanced upslope snowfall by the coastal low is plausible or even likely for the upper 2/3 of E TN. Not sure highs get out of the mid 20s in E TN for Saturday afternoon to echo John's comments earlier. For now, we want to a strong storm which deepens and forms a bit earlier. With modeling correcting in the southwest, it will be interesting to see where the final correction ends-up.
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12z GFS is rolling. I will keep all posts pertaining to this particular run within this one post. I will update this post as it rolls. -Through hour 12...the western ridge is taller and a smidge more eastward. This may prevent the energy from digging into the SW by a fraction -At 42, we are approaching the point where it sheered out during the last two runs. Let's see where it goes. -At 54, there is slightly less digging...this might make a run for it. -At 60, it would appear this trough will try to go neutral slightly earlier in the run. We will see. All thoughts are my own, and those of a person who does this as a hobby. LOL. -At 66 you can toggle back in time with the 500vort maps, and see the correction during the last several runs, ie less erroneous digging into the southwest. -By 78, the slp along the SE coast is tucked-in right along the coast...that is a change. -Trailing energy is not as strung out and should allow for the trailing energy to be inputed into the developing coastal storm. -By 90, the GFS has the storm closer to the EC. Not sure this run would help us a ton, but there is a noticeable trend at 66 to correct the over amplification in the southwest. That in turn is causing the slp just off the EC to track more westward. -By 96, the storm definitely has received input from the system in the southwest and is neutral to slight neg tilt over the Carolinas. This looks much more like the system modeled at 12z yesterday but slightly east of that run. Not sure it can get back this far west during future runs, but that is an improvement. Over and out.
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An interesting move by the 0z EPS last night. It has some support from the GEPS regarding the EPO ridge. This is the last 5 days of the run. All three global ensembles are BN or temps in the East. There is one trough amplification in the West around 180, and then the EPS firmly entrenches the trough in the East again. If you go look at the historical thread, take a look at the 0z EPS and compare. The GEFS holds the trough centered mid-section/west. It has done better with transitions, but seems to have been left to its solutions...both the EPS and GEFS had similar looks. The overnight and 12z(yesterday)EPS run is substantially different than its Weeklies. The EPS made a move at 12z yesterday in the LR. Weeklies were derived from 0z. The 0z run continued that trend. That pattern on the left would be quite cold here w/ some hints of split flow(see the low underneath).
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Morning disco from MRX. Good write-up and similar to discussions here: With the approaching trough, significant 12-hour height falls of 200+ meters are expected, which will provide synoptic-scale ascent on Friday, more notably to our southeast closer to the surface low that eventually becomes a nor`easter. With the increased NW flow in the lower levels, the focus for increased PoPs and longer precipitation windows will be in the higher terrain. While there does remain much uncertainty, current indications of the vertical atmospheric profile suggest mainly a rain/snow mix with 850mb temperatures to stay below freezing. This also could be accompanied by sleet, depending on the depth of the saturated layer. Based on the latest model guidance, it still appears that the best potential of accumulating snowfall remains in the higher terrain. This is given the continued uncertainty for residence time of moisture in the region, dynamic cooling efficiency, and the overall timing in general. It is also noted that the latest ECMWF and many ensemble members are more aggressive on widespread light snowfall accumulations due to a later exit of moisture and better forcing. In any case, the overall message remains the same with potential for widespread impacts remaining fairly low. By Friday night, strong low- level CAA will be in place with the trough having moved just east of the region. Saturday through Monday The main story for Saturday continues to be the likelihood of far below normal temperatures, potentially colder than any seen so far this season. The ensemble and deterministic consensus is for 850mb temperatures to fall into the negative teens (C) after 500mb heights fall to 5300-5400 meters, normal January values in the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This could mean much of the area will stay below freezing for 48 hours or more, not to mention subsidence from the surface high likely allowing for significantly cold overnight lows Friday and Saturday nights. Depending on the strength of low- level winds early in the weekend, wind chills could drop to the single-digits area-wide to below zero in the higher elevations. The remainder of the period will likely experience a warming trend as height rises are indicated.
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Indeed the 6z off-run Euro would be a widespread light snow event for E TN. Turns neutral tilt right on time - northern stream dominated event.
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It is on an island right now, but the Euro (again at 6z) appears to get most of the energy clear of the southwest at hour 60. I can only see it in the front range right now, so we will see where it goes from there.
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The 0z Euro absorbs most of the energy from the southwest where it didn't during prior runs. The GFS leaves it behind over the southwest. It "appears"(my two cents and not the gospel) that when that energy actually moves eastward....the storm occurs close enough to the coast to have meaningful impacts in E TN. Maybe the 6z Euro will show some consistency. Maybe not. If the storm is going to occur two things have to happen: 1. The energy can't be left behind in the southwest. It can be strung-out some, but not completely sheered and left. 2. Phase has to occur early. The 0z Euro had both of those. Even still, it needed to phase a bit earlier. I wondered this yesterday, and still wonder today....are models erroneously leaving that energy back? I don't know the answer to that, but it is something to watch. We have seen that verify at times, and also be an error at times during the past decade.
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And then the Euro goes back to the old GFS runs. I have noticed this winter that the Euro seems(at times) about 24-48 hours behind the GFS this winter with trends. Seems like it is almost where the GFS was yesterday morning. Models leaning towards a clipper event for the weekend for northern areas with only the fair coastal cities having potential for significant snow. If things don't move by 0z, there is really little room or time for the system to work its way back west.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 12z Euro wins the belt back today. But will it keep it? -
That is a 100% cave by the 18z GFS to the Euro. Both solutions still look wonky as all get out...and not sure I buy either. Euro is king today.
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On another note, the 6z GFS and 12z GFS are flirting with a multi-day, over-running event after the cutter which follows the potential weekend storm. Not even going to get into details, but that has been on modeling off-and-on for 5-6 days I think. It is still there.
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I picture these troughs like a pendulum swinging. We want it neutral over Alabama and not the Carolinas. Not sure that is going to get fixed. To continue what I said above, we just need that base of that northern stream trough to get hit with the STJ turbo boost as seen on the GFS. Without that, the storm fires later which equals a later turn/recurve. The formation of the slp earlier would likely allow/force the northern stream to buckle and pull back on the slp, thus lifting its almost due north. If that won't work, we want a strong northern feature in order to get some clipper snow. GFS/GEFS/GEPS vs Euro cage match. CMC is injured and in the locker room for evaluation.
