Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Yeah, the NAM is like the old DGEX. Just gets way too amped outside of 48 hours at times. The 12z RGEM and NAM looked fairly putrid. The 12z GFS was fairly close to something good on the 3rd. It actually turned the corner. That is likely 6-10"(or more) for the mountains if that track were to verify. CMC was more backend snow showers and flurries.
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Probably is a wee bit too cold, but the CFSv2 is about as cold as I have ever seen it here - nearly off the charts. I had to do a double take as I thought I clicked on some other parameter than temps. Some of its 5-day means are 25-30F BN in the western forum areas. MJO looks good this AM. Ensembles tend to shallow out troughs a bit more this AM, but let's see if those MJO plots begin to push things a bit. Overall, a good look and cold start to Jan beginning Jan 3.
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Overnight partial update: Operationals still flirting with a system early next week... In the LR, 12z GEFS/GEPS both showing a strong EPO signal that could deliver some quite cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies to the Apps. Slight westward trend of the trough, but overall placement the same. We needed that westward trend or that pattern would have simply not reloaded. Don't want to see a continue trend west. Still not convinced we are seeing the new pattern...may still be seeing a transition. We will see what the EPS has in store overnight. There is a sweet spot there that the pattern will have to hit regarding the western ridge alignment. As for '84, not seeing those types of temps on modeling yet, but seeing ensembles produce significant BN departures is noteworthy. However, weak La Nina winters(as has been noted been many on this forum....nearly every day for weeks) tend to have these really extreme temperature flips. There are definitely duds in the mix. But many of the great winters IMBY came with this sort of weak La Nina pattern. Not saying that happens, but worth noting. Jan 85 was historically cold...and then it was spring. Big swings. Still need to reel this in, but the possibilities for decent cold are there. That pattern after 300 on the GEFS has the mechanism to deliver severe cold(2020s style). Long way off in model land, though. Biggest thing analogs do is help recognize a pattern. Great discussion though!
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
UT played about as well as can be expected. Our lottery pick point guard and top post player were out. The two guys who we never need to miss....both missed the same game. Tough loss. -
BTW, I was wondering what the wx was like under that big red ball in the Aleutians. That Kodiak high temp tells the story.
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This for you. Joe D'Aleo was commenting the wild swings in Alaska this December. BTW Antartica recorded -144F last winter. Boggles my mind. Anyway... This past Sunday, a record 65 degrees reported at the Kodiak airport was 20 degrees higher than the previous high temperature record of 45 degrees set on Dec. 26, 1984, the National Weather Service reported.
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For kicks and giggles....The ever cold CFSv2 extended is working to top itself with each run. The control is even more extreme with some 5 day time frames at twenty-five below normal. The mean is warmer, but still very cold w/ some huge departures.
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That is what I was thinking as well - meaning Canadian cold would work.
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Agree. We just don’t want the 12z EPS solution which flushed cold out of NA. The GEPS and GEFS looked really good. Get some storms undercutting that ridge, and we would be in business. Not sure I buy the EPS solution at this point. It looked similar, just a different variation.
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The 18z GEFS is a very cold winter pattern with a strong EPO/AK ridge. No idea if that continues during future runs. That looked like a very stable pattern. That is a total reversal of the current pattern. Not sharing a foxhole with the GEFS, but fun to look at.
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AK block at 288 set to empty the Arctic into the Lower 48 if it doesn't form a shallow trough.
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270+ Major winter storm under way for far western areas of the forum ice/snow.
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Awesome to see you posting! Yeah, tempted to stay up and watch that run!
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1060 hp in southern Alberta at 210 on the 18z GFS.
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Another nice look on the 18z GFS at 102.
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On the plus side, the CFSv2 has now flipped Jan to seasonal to BN here. As @Mr. Kevincorrectly noted, where the CFS goes towards right before January is often telling. The CFSv2 extended(comes out 4x per day) is pretty cold for most of its run at 12z...but keeping' it real, it is cold pretty much all of the time. It is the ying to the EPS yang.
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Nice PNA/EPO signature on the 12z EPS. It does create a chinook which scours a lot of the cold out of NA. Always something! As each trough pushes through the ridge reforms slightly west of its previous position. It may well be that a formidable EPO eventually builds and cold empties back into NA in a pinwheel fashion as cold wraps around the vortex over Greenland. Looks like a good pattern but a period of moderation over central and western Canada. Would be our luck to finally get a good pattern and the source region be less than optimal. The GEFS and GEPS look much better in terms of source regions. I suspect there would be enough cold given it is January and AN air masses to our north are still often BN if they can get here in decent shape.
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The 12z GEFS has similar look(to the GEPS) but further west. Both looks will work in the LR. Those looks, if we can get split flow, are excellent for winter in the east. Big red ball is in the right place for now. LOL. @Blue Moon, keep us updated on the severe!
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If you all want to see a MONSTER EPO/PNA, take a look at the GEPS at 12z in the LR. Wow. That'll do it.
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12z GFS and CMC and their ensembles continue to look good. Looks like several opportunities are on the table. The ensembles are quite cold.
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Was just digging back through the December thread, pretty amazing to see modeling pinpoint this upcoming timeframe for both cold and rain. @Holston_River_Rambler, the EPS may have hit this rain at max range. If the cold arrives on Sunday/Monday, it was hit at max range as well by almost all globals. The CMC may have again shown its worth. Again, modeling has done really well this winter with the overall longwave pattern at 500. It wasn't so great during November, but has been decent since then. The Euro Weeklies may have had the Jan 3 shot around December 13th. I can remember when modeling had almost no skill past 7-8 days. Now, it is still pretty sketch after those timeframes, but decent work by those 0s and 1s.
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Finally starting to see Jan 3-10 timeframe come into focus just a little. Looks cold and stormy at times from the MS eastward. Just how far that come southward is up for grabs. With this setup, I tend to favor west and middle forum areas just a little bit more. In general, in the LR modeling has a similar look to the past few days. Just tough to tell if that is the look or if it is transitioning to another pattern altogether. Easy to look at a transitional pattern and think it is the next pattern. I am 50/50 that we are seeing a pattern transition to a more favorable Pacific with some sort of smorgasbord of a -WPO and and EPO ridge(potentially AK block)...OR just a relaxation of the current pattern(and then a return to an Aleutian high. What I am seeing this morning is a more traditional La Nina high off the West coast. That would allow the cold to push in waves. Very much agree with Flash that this looks a lot like last year. I definitely note that cold fronts are stalling just short of the Apps or at the Apps. The good thing this time....it is January and the cold is stronger. Great pattern discussion above. Of note, both the ECMWF and GEFS MJO plots depict a stalled MJO on the 7/8 border...hard not to like that. The actual MJO itself is almost in 8 today. There is a risk it could loop back to 6 in the very LR. But Daniel Boone made some great points about the water warming in the 7/8/1 regions and potentially allowing the MJO to move into those areas. Lots of uncertainty, but the fickle MJO looks decent today. Oddly, the GEFS has come around...While it is not to be trusted in MJO IMHO opinion, the model easily has the best look for winter and its LR is finally in sync with its actual MJO look. The ECMWF isn't too far from that look. I alway note that when discussion veers away from the MJO, it must be in decent territory or headed that way. When it is the main subject of discussion, our wx pattern is hot garbage. LOL.
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Bit of an uptick in the 18 GEFS snow totals. 3.4" or NE TN which is decent. 2" north of 40 for a good chunk of the state of TN....I mean it ain't zero. LOL.
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Welcome to the party happy hour of the GEFS. The 18z GEFs is now cold - very cold at times. It reflects a similar look now to the 12z EPS. Slightly displace westward -EPO. Y'all remember those GEPS runs from a few days ago at the surface? Like those in regards to temps. @John1122, looks like a more traditional placement of the eastern Pacific high during a La Nina don't you think? If it will not retrograde into the Aleutians.....
