Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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That northwest trend yesterday told the story. Have seen some light and scattered flurries. That should be it for this storm unless it reorganizes. Euro absolutely nailed this system, including the late trend which split the system over E TN. Cold ensues! Next round after mid-month. Time for a break in tracking! Two in one week is work. Congratulations to those in middle TN on their snow!
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That would be extreme for sure. Pretty sure that is with zero snow on the ground. We will have to watch as LR modeling is trying to spin-up storms after mid-month. With so much cold in Canada, wouldn't take much. For now, definitely fantasy land...but maybe not for my pipes!!!
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I am feeling a dry slot in my near future. Quick rain/snow shower and that should be it for MBY.
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300+ 12z GFS is what can happen if a slp deepens with cold air in place. Teens below zero to end that run.
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Well, the 12z GFS isn't going to back down not matter what! Can't decide whether to chuckle or not.
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Man there are a crap ton of people watching this thread relative to our forum. Awesome to see.
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12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains. That said, it upped total precip. Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley. If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast. If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom).
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Scratch that last post. Precip is more. Problem is warm-nose which I think will be attributed to a lot of this falling during afternoon daylight hours in E TN.
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12z NAM basically shuts this off at the Plateau. Looks like a good snow for middle TN. I still think this is moving much faster than modeling is showing. We will see. BTW, that doesn't increase amounts for MBY. Just looks fast w/ less precip.
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System looks like it is moving faster than modeled. Which model actually lines up with the look of the storm right now?
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The NAM went absolutely nuts. Kuchera map is a beauty.
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12z Euro moves west with the heaviest snow axis. 12z on the left. 6z on the right.
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One word of caution, sometimes models can erroneously perpetuate a cold pattern. I "think" that the above is a reflection of the GEFS MJO which is bullish into 8 after this current loop back into 7.
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This is NOT a forecast. All speculation at this range. This is an example of what I said above about the pattern after the 15th. If you are going to draw up a cold, snowy pattern for the Rockies and eastward, this is how it looks. Blocking up top and see where the trough comes into the Lower 48 and turns eastward (the western Plains)....that is a pattern that would allow for a winter system(s) to track across our area. That is an EPO driven pattern with a ridge centered just below Greenland. Go look at some great winters storms in the East, and that is very close to the look.
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For posterity from TYS's climate page...One of the great flips historically that I have seen.
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The 12z GFS continues to advertise a potentially potent winter weather pattern beginning around the 15th. Both 96-59 and 14-15 and 85-85 all had second half cold shots which produced copious amounts of winter weather for the forum area. Maybe all three had warm Decembers. I don't want to hype that timeframe too much, but even Cosgrove mentioned it today. It could completely go "poof", but I like where modeling is today. What I would say is that timeframe would certainly fit analogs and what modeling is portraying. Additionally, the MJO is potentially(not a slam dunk yet) going to rotate back out of 7 and into colder phases or the colder plots of the COD. Preliminarily, that is our next window or just a continuation of this window(whichever verbiage you prefer).
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...That is awesome. After last week's heat wave, I am having a hard time remembering to grab a coat on the way out the door!!! One of my kids even rolled out the door yesterday morning (23F) with not coat on. They haven't had to wear a coat for a couple of weeks! LOL. The above will be a shock to the system!!!
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Yeah, I tend to agree with that. The UK...what in the world happened to that model? Also, seems like the Euro tends to be more accurate over the Lower 48 when the trough is in the West. The GFS seems to handle patterns (where there are eastern troughs) just a bit better, especially if the pattern has a lot of moving pieces like the current one. Though the GFS seems to be too aggressive with precip of late. The CMC has not been terrible either. And the Euro has been pretty steady with the past system and this one. Truly, not a bad winter season for the global models this winter. Their ensembles have done reasonably well with the longwave pattern at range.
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One thing to note @TellicoWx, I wonder if the GFS could be too progressive (as its bias) which allows for totals over the forum area to be higher. The RGEM may be a bit less susceptible to that. IDK which model is not either 1. too amped 2. too flat.
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ZR is noted along the CMC's southern flank as well.
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12z CMC Kuchera...shift very slightly northward noted.
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The 6z GFS looked awesome from the 15th onward. Let's see what 12z is about to do.
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12z(right) and 6z(left) GFS for comparison. Incredible to see the GFS remain that steady. At one time years ago, the GFS could be counted on for multiple northwest jogs as it was often too progressive. There was once a saying that the GFS better have the system in Cuba in order to account for the northwest jog it was going to take. The map below is the Kuchera snow algorithm. Kuchera gives us more, so I picked the beefier look. I firmly believe that taking that model that has the least is probably more correct once the system becomes reality. However, when posting maps on the sub-forum it is the user's duty to post at least one map with the absolute most snow for that given run or suite. This side-by-side is easier than making a gif. Accumulation trends allow one to see the track . @Holston_River_Rambleris the gif maker. Please keep in mind there is ice/sleet along the southern edge of this precip shield, maybe a 100 mile band which is roughly two counties into Mississippi and Alabama(just south of the TN line).
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Yeah, happens all the time here on northwest flow or just west-to-east flow. It will blank Kingsport and the line reform almost exactly at I-81. The Sunday system is usually money here with bands moving in from the SE. Just was unfortunate that go around. 95 times out of 100, that is money for Kingsport. This system tomorrow is trick for those of us in the shadow of the Plateau. Oddly, and I bet you have seen this in Knoxville at times, we get the opposite, and sometimes it roars of the Plateau.
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12z GFS is steady....very similar solution to its past runs.
