Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just uncanny. So, when you see the GFS honed-in on that event around the 13th....Normally, I would give no model any credence at 240, but it has been locked on. -
12z GEFS clown map for the entire run. Most of this falls after the 12th. That is a good signal.
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I am going to use the GEPS as maybe the GEFS is a bit overdone. A big ridge out west shuttles cold air southeastward. Cold temps over Hudson Bay pivot waves of cold into that synoptic set-up. The storm tracks on modeling this winter are the two arrows originating in TX or the western GOM. That is a good set-up. No guarantees, but we take that 10/10 times. Good confluence set-up.
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And one last post in a flurry of posts. Here is the d11-16 5d 500mb height anomaly look. Modeling has been quite consistent with this look for many days. The actual switch to this 500mb looks begins right around the 10th. Not saying that is what happens, but that looks pretty good. Get that inside of day 5, and one would think we have some chances.
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I could be wrong, but the Euro looks like it is going to attempt a phase after 216. LONG WAY out there, but confluence appears to be decent around Valentine's Day. Maybe we will call it Winter Storm Desperado. Don't you draw the queen of diamonds, boy She'll beat you if she's able You know the queen of hearts is always your best bet Now it seems to me some fine things have been laid upon your table But you only want the ones that you can't get....
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Interestingly, the 12z Euro has a sneaky shot of light snow on Tuesday for W NC and the mountains of E TN. Let's see if it continue to back. That has been a very quiet trend. Something just to watch for fun for NE TN folks. Out to 198, the Euro has a vigorous, little northern stream piece of energy. That is looking more like the GFS.
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The MJO is forecast to just die in phases 2 and 3. Those are cold phases. -EPO is about to create a block which will drive the bus. The first week of February has always been warm on modeling for the eastern half of the state. Again, the window which is being mentioned is Feb 10-20. It is no slam dunk as modeling can hiccup big time during transitional months. That said, it can and does snow during a base warm pattern. Personally, I don't think this will be base warm. Most of the GEFS looks BN. It will be hard to erase these first few days of positive departures during a short month, but we erased a +29 during January and a +17 to start the month at TRI. Temps here finished BN, amazingly. Right now a good chunk of the western 2/3 of the forum area is under some sort of buffet of ice storm warnings, WWAs, or WSWs. Every pattern is going to have some warm intrusions, even during the coldest of cold patterns. And no guarantees. I do this as a hobby, so always take it with huge boulders of salt. Figure 1. Notice the EPO is positive right now. It is forecast to go negative around the 8th. An interesting tidbit. The NAO is positive right now but is forecast to trend briefly negative right before Valentine's Day. Usually a good storm signal. Figure 2. The MJO is in cold phases on the GEFS bias corrected map. That is a winter storm signal there. Figure 3. MJO monthly correlational maps entered on February. Figure 4. It may seem like a boring news day for those of us in the East...but really, this day is kind of crazy.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, think you have time to put together a GIF of the 12GEFS 500mb height anomy for North America?
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Spring is definitely not on wx modeling....yet.
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The 12z GFS continues to beat the drum for a system(northern stream influence) around or just before Valentine's Day - on of John's windows for development which he discussed above. Also, I wouldn't sleep on that system on Tuesday. It is the second of a 1-2 punch system that originally was a storm here, then trended OTS, and the trailer is now onshore/coastline again. The 12z GFS continues to advertise quite a volatile pattern after the tenth - meaning the potential for storms are there. For sure it could be dry, but there are a ton of relatively small pieces of energy flying around.
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Weak La Nina's are cold roughly 65-70% of the time in the Upper South, sometimes very cold. The worst cold/snow I have seen IMBY has been during weak La Ninas. Weak La Ninas often occur during the second year of a La Nina cycle. I think the combination of the La Nina being weak and it being year 2 of the cycle(resets ocean temp gradients), makes them colder on average. I will have a break-down of the winter(what went right/wrong) once February is over. These second year, weak La Ninas have a pretty normal pattern which is different than year one. Year one, December is cold with a warm-up during Jan/Feb. Year two, December is warm and then often(not always) January into February is cold. I also think @John1122's correlation of cold Novembers worked out nicely this year. I am not so sure it didn't work last year as well given the snow/ice in W TN last year at this time. Additionally, the cold/snow which we had in E TN was likely in response to the Dec -NAO pattern waining and leaving. The end of an NAO pattern is good for eastern areas. The storm tract remains suppressed even as the STJ kicks back in. And definitely worth noting, NAOs are better during mid and late winter(not December).
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That is wild. Cold appears to be outdoing modeling if that is the case.
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Keep the lights on!!! I think spring will wait until after the 20th at least...but it is kinda headed toward spring at that point anyway with the days getting longer and being almost March. I think Arkansas actually may still see some winter after this even if modeling is even close to correct. I have a batch of onions to put in my hoop house. I need it to get warm at some point. LOL.
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The old school mammalian version of Dr No!
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@Holston_River_Ramblerbringing the goods with the mountain torque stuff. I couldn't find my way out of a paper bag if trying to discuss MT. @nrgjeff, man, was working on this post when you posted.... 1. I may have actually misread Larry on this one. Here is his quote regarding March. He is not overly cold for February BTW. This is just relating to the PV discussion: Changes in the circumpolar vortex at the stratospheric level (10MB), with a transfer of coldest values to Canada, might allow a comeback assault of frigid air at some point between March 1 and 10. But the sun is getting higher in the sky, and opportunities to build snow cover after this week appear limited. 2. The 50mb anomaly on the 18z GFS looks pretty jostled. 3. The GFS has had a clipper around the 204 range and is moving it forward in time. It has had that for days. 4. Here is the d5-10 500mb pattern and the d10-15 500mb pattern. If the EPS is correct, the pattern should mature in the d10-15 range. 5. CANSIPS model from WxBell shows a cold February(edit!) which looks awfully similar to the GEFS and EPS. With February often being an active weather month, hard not to like that. It has AN precip for the month over the TN Valley, but the event tomorrow may skew that a bit. The CPC today has the 6-14 w/ BN precip. That said, sometimes cold/wintry patterns have BN precip OR the pattern is just dry! 6. And the only teleconnection that matters.... Punxsutawney Phil, Poppy, Mount Joy Minnie and Octoraro Orphie gave their predictions today, with a nearly unanimous prognostication for six more weeks of winter. Only one -- Orphie -- is calling for an early spring. https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-punxsutawney-phil-and-lancaster-countys-own-groundhogs-predicted-on-groundhog-day-2022-photos/article_5457d342-8421-11ec-9f66-bfca0220a202.html I hope Phil has his crap together on this...
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I don’t think it will be bone dry. Man, I could be wrong. Usually colder patterns have some dry wx embedded. Cold requires dry air masses for the most part in order to sustain the cold. I don’t trust details in modeling right now. The overall long wave pattern computer modeling has been stellar in the LR this winter. Really, the only thing modeling has missed is they flipped erroneously to a baser warm pattern for Feb. Feb may finish AN for temps, but it will be the first 4-5 days which do it. February looks like a battleground month for this area...some rain and some snow. I think the East is currently completing the dry spell which was forecast. With the heavy rain we are about to get, we need about 5-7 days to dry and/or thaw out. After the 10th(with the way the tough is aligned and assuming modeling is very likely over doing the depth of the trough), could be multiple systems at that point. I would be shocked if we don’t see 1-2 big storms after the 10th in the East That is a big time set up at 500. @Holston_River_Rambler, Cosgrove mentioned on FB that the strat may be getting jostled. Now, I admittedly skimmed that post. Have u seen anything of the sort? If so...spring may start...and then stop! Of note, the last part of spring looks a bit chilly on the cfs. Makes me wonder if El Niño is about to show up. LOL Lastly, if you all have not read math/met’s post on the mountain wave event, please do so. It is just a few posts above this one.
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The 12z GEFS is honking after d10. The d10-16 snow mean fro NE TN is 4"+ which is significant at this range. That is a big bump upward. @Wurbus, I have to hit the road again. Any big storms skewing that, or is that pretty consistent? You have a good eye or those individuals mean trends.
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Well, I never posted more. LOL. We are in a lull in the eastern forum areas. Meanwhile, the western forum areas will be fighting to keep the lights on due to ice. IF....IF...the 12z ensembles of both the GEFS and EPS are correct, we have a good pattern at 500 following this storm. Again, I think the time to watch is Feb 10-20th. The EPS looks particularly good as it puts the storm track right on the eastern seaboard or slightly inland.
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"Cold November" correlation paying off big time this year.
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MW posts are some of my favorites. For those new to the forum, @Math/Metis an expert. As or the LR, I am going to keep it short(amazing, right?) so as not to bury that great MW post in the thread. The LR right after the 10th looks really good - as in really good. I do caution that pattern is about 8 days out, so that could still change. The configuration of the trough over the East would be quite a wintry pattern for however long that look lasts. See my ensemble post graphics from yesterday as a reference. For now, we get the pattern and worry about the details (storms in the pattern). Obviously one can never guarantee anything in the weather, and I will avoid that when at all possible...but that is a big time look. Will post more later.
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18z GFS trends SE but still has the storm this weekend. It would not surprise me to see this trend off the board. What I do like is the clipper fest behind it. That is very 14-15ish. Would be a nice way to end the season.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
UK and Duke are just juggernauts. Auburn is as well. LSU has potential. Tennessee has to go to a guard heavy line-up or one of our bigs has to get hot. And I do think JF is going to finish the year with a flurry of good games. He is a Kingsport player. He is tough because of that. This might be one year where the Vols have not peaked early. TN doesn't have the talent of other teams, but they like to fight(and get into fights). That will help come tourney time. -
I addition to that second system which slides by just after, there is a parade of northern stream energy as well which would likely result in some northwest flow/clipper type events. We want the GFS to be right about where it is placing the battle zone which is slightly to our south. As Jeff notes, it will likely come back north some. February rarely has prolonged suppression issues(speaking of the pattern and not this weekend's system).
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There is a piece of energy trailing that weekend system. Looks like there are two tightly spaced chances with SLPs passing to our south. Gotta get that slp south of here which those two looks do. Now the CMC does have the second look as well. The CMC is more progressive and washed out, and it may indeed be right. The GFS amping things makes me slightly distrustful. That said, is has been placing SLPs and systems in the right spot...just giving them too much juice in the process.
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The CMC sends an ensuing hp a little further south(after the ice storm) and suppresses that buckle which forces that slp out to sea. Just can't tell if the GFS is moving to the CMC and this 12z GFS run is just a snapshot of its transition to a solution much further SE...OR if it has something. It really has wanted to put something into play during that time frame.
