Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Here are the 0z EPS(left) and 0z GEFS(right) for d10-15 in the LR. That is a great look for a snowstorm. The 6z GEFS looks a bit better as it has just a hint of a SER(prevents suppression of storm systems).
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It is really important to look at the surface when looking at the LR, especially with a trough which is positively tilted. The 500mb maps will not tell the entire story. LR modeling continues to keep this region in the ice box for the next 2-3 weeks. We have more cold air than we have had during previous winters over NA. I suspect an at times cold, normal precip, and wintry pattern for some in the forum area through the first 2/3 of Feb. I could be wrong...and I will always preface a monthly forecast with that last statement.
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Ensembles look good, which when past d10 this winter, have been very reliable. There are some warm-ups between extended cold shots. Operational models are going to be all over the place as we get closer to spring. Eventually we are just going to get to spring! LOL. Looks to me like we are going to end-up with a positively tilted trough over the mid-section of the US and the eastern US. That is over-running city for whoever is north of that cold from. I need to go back and look at 14-15, but pretty sure that was similar except it was more northern stream stuff. This weekend will be storm one of that setup. I think the pattern, absent a strong MJO signal, is going to simply repeat what it has been doing. With the lag that accompanies the MJO, we may well scoot by most of the month in this pattern. For eastern folks, we need a strong cutter to drive the boundary southeastward or a 50/50 low to pop. Either way, we continue to see winter produce across the forum. Will be interesting to see how far southeast the boundary is pushed for the TR/FR system. Then, we have the sneaky system Sunday that could be nuisance variety, but interesting.
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From the NWS Office in Memphis: National Weather Service Memphis TN 516 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 .UPDATE... Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022/ DISCUSSION... Well it looks like we will be dealing with a fairly significant icing event for the Mid South later on this week. Today will be another great day for the region as we warm into 60s again. Today will be a great day to enjoy the weather as things will go down hill Wednesday through Friday as a front will approach the region. A few showers will develop tonight and should continue into Wednesday. There could be a small break Wednesday before things really go left. The arctic front will start to nose into the NE AR/Mo Bootheel late in the day and temps there will start to fall. Wednesday night through Thursday night is when the greatest chance for impactful winter weather across the region. Guidance is coming in more aggressive with the cold air and that in turn is causing forecast ice accumulations to go up. Soundings look very messy for the Mid South with several hours of Freezing rain and sleet across the area. Some of the total are downright nasty, but some of that is sleet. We have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include more of W TN, E AR, and a small portion of MS. I am very concerned with the icing issues that this system could pose as it could be fairly significant with numerous power outages and very hazardous driving conditions. We will have to monitor for the upgrade to Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings...in all likelihood they would be Ice Storm Warnings as snow will not be the dominant precip type. We are looking at the possibility of 0.1 up to a half inch of ice possible across portions of the Mid South when its all said and done. Again, the time frame for the most significant icing looks to be late Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Please stay tuned to the forecast because this is a very conditional situation and any fluctuations in temperature or placement of the arctic front will be the difference in you seeing a very cold rain or a significant ice storm. Please stay weather aware as we try to sort out all of the details over the next 24 hours. Before all of the icing issues we will have heavy rainfall on the warm side of this system. Up to 3 inches of rain over a good portion of the area during the course of this event which may cause localized flooding. Precipitation will taper off Thursday night with temps in the 20s by morning under a brisk north wind. Below normal temps and dry weather expected for the remainder of the forecast period with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s.
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The NWS has added more counties in western TN to the WSW. There are now some counties in NW MS in addition to the northern 2/3 of Arkansas. I wold suspect there will be more counties in TN added. For folks in those areas, time to make sure to have a backup heating source and power source. Looks like the ice portion of the storm will run the Mississippi River and also along the Ohio.
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6z GFS run had a ton of wintry looks in it. The 0z Euro has a light wintry event on Sunday for the eastern Valley.
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Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for portions of Arkansas and west TN. @Mr. Kevin, are you under a WSW?
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This is the 18z RGEM and 18z GFS.
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If this west TN/Arkansas/ sw Mizzou ice storm is still showing up tomorrow AM, might be worth a thread. That was a nasty 18z GFS run...
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Yeah, it definitely has some DGEX DNA in it for sure. Right on time...it folds completely for the weekend. What is crazy, it has been eerily accurate at the d14-16 range though.
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Man, the 18z GFS just folded big time to the 12z Euro and 12z CMC. We are now tracking a low to our SE for the weekend. It may result in absolutely nothing, but it isn't a cutter. That is a clean pass. @nrgjeffThat TX loss...oof. Great comeback, but felt like watching a storm hammer the NC side of the apps, and not make it across. Almost there, but things went sideways at the last second. Wait, I have done that too!
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The 12z GEFS is also more formidable or the Thursday system with the potential for ZR to sweep across most of the state behind a powerful cold front. The 12z GEFS does "see" the storm for this weekend, and it is not a cutter like the operational.
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12z Euro with a system similar to the ICON for this upcoming weekend. If we actually blended the GFS/Euro, that would be a nice solution.
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Really though, the ~Feb10-20th timeframe looks like our shot...and then we climb towards spring.
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Looks like the 12z GFS is amped for the weekend system, but the CMC/ICON are not at all. ICON has a an interesting setup.
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Looks like the February thread is up and running...If one of the mods could post it, that would be hugely appreciated.
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Sever ice event is back on the 6z GFS for middle and west TN.
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I mentioned a cool potential analog connection in the January thread, and am going to place part of it here just to test it. I am also seeing some memories from friends playing in the snow in 2014 pop-up on social media. I noted that I file away times when it snows in Jerusalem. I won't repeat the same post. However, it did snow knee high to a giraffe in Jerusalem during December of 2013. Just this past week, heavy snows fell in the Middle East again. Snow in Jerusalem is not as rare as some news agencies make it out to be. It is at elevation and gets its share at times. Northern Israel around Hermon gets regular, annual snowfall. So, I compared the wx maps in the US from December 2013 to modeling for February of 2022. Today is just an extension of that. This is the 12z CFSv2. Uncanny the resemblance to December of 2013. They look like copies. When Israel received huge snows during 2013, this is what the map over the US looked like. It is almost a carbon copy of the map above. This is what followed in the US that winter.
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Afternoon disco from the NWS Memphis: By Wednesday Night into Thursday, the cold front will begin to sink into the Mid-South as a SFC low pressure develops across Texas and tracks northeastward. A second wave of precipitation is expected to occur as the SFC low moves northeastward and an upper trough moves into the region. Arctic air will also be plunging into the region behind the front. The big question remains on how far south the front will be as the SFC low tracks northeastward along the front into the Mid-South. The 12Z GFS is much further north with the front than the previous run. However, looking at the GFS ensembles 19 of the 30 members show arctic air impinging through at least Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by 12Z Thursday. The Canadian is further south with the frontal position by 12Z Thursday. The 12Z ECMWF is somewhere between. Behind the front, there may remain a warm layer just above the surface to produce a freezing rain scenario across this region. If the front is further south or the arctic air is much deeper, freezing rain may turn over to sleet. These transition zones will likely move from west to east on Thursday as the front sags southeast. Still too early to pinpoint exact precip types and amounts until there is more confidence in where the front will be exactly located. However, do think there is a potential for ice and sleet accumulations to occur somewhere in the CWA. Precipitation may change to snow briefly before precipitation cuts off. Arctic high pressure will build into the region behind the system. Locations that receive winter accumulations will likely see temperatures struggle to get above freezing at least on Friday. Lows will be in the teens and 20s.
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The 18z GFS has picked up on the weekend system. It is nuisance variety stuff. It also kind of doubled down on the potential icing situation in the western forum area for mid/late week. Comparison slides...18z vs 12z GFS. Midweek system: Next weekend:
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Modeling still appears to be on track for a reloading of the cold pattern(it is actually still cold...just referring to the brief warm-up to begin Feb). The first week of Feb has generally been a non-starter for me. The fact that we are potentially looking at another winter storm for west TN during that time frame is a bonus(if one actually wants to call ice a bonus!). The second and third weeks of February is the bonus window in my book. No way to really talk about details this far out, but the pattern looks like a potential producer. That could change as we are still 7-8 days from that reload of the cold/stormy pattern. Without getting into a ton of detail, I will just say that time frame (maybe even extending to the end of Feb) looks good. What is being depicted is a continuation of a base cold pattern. TRI will almost certainly end up BN for January, and that will likely include four straight weeks of BN temps from Jan 4th-31st. That warm December was distant memory yesterday morning when I took a run at Sequoyah Hills Park in Knoxville with wind chills hovering around 12 degrees as a brisk breeze hustled off the Tennessee River. While the snow originally modeled for the Jan20-30th timeframe certainly didn't deliver for many in the E TN valleys...the cold certainly did. February is starting to have that look as well, BUT while January can often have dry spells...February is almost the opposite.
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I remember that. You have been on your game!
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January 28th-29th Clippers/NW Flow Obs/Last Minute Forecasts.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Impressive totals. -
The system I am watching is the one after the cutter. On both the GFS and EPS, a system takes the low road next weekend. It would be a minor/moderate event if it holds... That time frame is next Sunday into Monday. It is not a slam dunk. As we have seen on modeling, those bone dry patterns at LR have been shown to have systems embedded like yesterday. The CFS Feb look (see temps above) has AN precip for Feb. The week after this upcoming one has potential. The good thing about the Euro folding to the GFS....seems like the GFS has been able to handle storms on medium/LR modeling better than the Euro.
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The 12z EPS is less enthused about colder temps, but the 500 pattern looks really good. The CFS seasonal is now cold for February. Usually the last runs of the previous month carry significant weight. I think the pattern after the cutter through maybe even the end of the month looks very good.
