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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The one I am thinking of is a line graph w/ time as the x-axis and model verification as the y-axis. One model is represented w/ triangle points, another squares, and so on.....I am heading out the door or would dig a bit more.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, I should have been more specific. Looking for the one which compares the GFS to other global modeling.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The GFS has been absolutely terrible since the upgrade. Last winter, it definitely led the way on multiple occasions. I would like to get some recent verification scores for the GFS (short, medium, and long range). Seems like it has done better during the past week or so. That said, the GFS was abysmal in the medium and long range when predicting this cold outbreak. If I remember correctly, it kept sticking the upcoming trough in the west and missed the timing on the cold outbreak almost completely - looked like it misread the MJO. At one point the upgrade was scoring worse than its predecessor. OTH, the bias of the Euro(amping things up) could certainly be in play. However, that is usually not the game of the CMC. Sometimes the Euro holds energy back in error, and sometimes it is right...but it pretty much does this for almost every system in the d7 range during winter. The only support the GFS has is the JMA. The JMA used to be fairly accurate when hunting big storms. Now, it just throws darts w/ a blindfold on..... Seriously, at this range...it is nearly impossible to get a decent read on a system. For now this is what we probably know....it is going to get really cold. There is going to be a strong cold front(likely some frozen precip along it). There is going to be a storm - Plains likely, but not set in stone.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Does anyone have the most updated verification scores for modeling inside of days 10, 7, and 5?
  5. Carvers Gap
    In the LR, looks this cold shot will break fast as a continent wide chinook looks to develop later this month and into early January(500 pattern doesn't change a ton, but enough to allow maritime air into the pattern). The BN heights in Alaska are at odds with the trough in the SE. Something is going to give there. As is, the BN heights in Alaska flood the top of the PNA ridge w/ maritime air. Most modeling has had this, but maybe not the the extreme seen on the 12z suite. We still keep the trough - no cold in early January to dump into it (poor source regions). That said, this original cold pattern looked to lack a good source region and that changed. I agree w/ Tellico above, the operationals (at 7 days out) are just another ensemble.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We need the PNA ridge in the LR to get a bit taller. If it doesn't, we are going to see a continent-wide chinook to end December. I think we cool off again as modeling has trended towards a favorable January...but it is worth noting that early January could be seasonal to AN. The 12z GFS was a great lead off....rest of the modeling suite left it on base w/ the side getting struck out in order. What does interest me is a storm which will follow this cold blast which is firmly on all modeling. Again, at this range everything is on the table. Christmas is still nine days out.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is a more extreme cutter than the CMC in my opinion. The CMC is kind of in the middle of the GFS and Euro in terms of track. Not a step in the right direction for the Euro. That said, if it is hanging on to that energy too long in the northern plains(and it easily could be doing that), the GFS could be right...but no way in heck I am sharing a foxhole w/ the GFS after the past 3-4 weeks of performance. Again, the big thing right now is there is going to be some variation as this is still seven days out. I lean cutter for now...but barely.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Would not surprise me either w/ the Euro having issues w/ digging a tad too much out west which is cutting the slp directly into the block - and that doesn't make sense.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Basically we have a cutter on the Euro/CMC vs the wildly erratic GFS(and slightly progressive). I hope the GFS is right, but it is gonna have to have some support.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the 12z Euro is super similar to the 12z CMC. The 12z GFS may be on to something, but it has absolutely zero support right now at 12z. It can sniff out storms, but it might be sniffing something as well....has been since the upgrade. Both camps are plausible.
  11. Carvers Gap
    When I am having to find the ' instead of the "....you know that was a big run. GFS...all caveats apply.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Well, someone feel free to post the Kuchara map. Whoa.
  13. Carvers Gap
    At 192 is is again stalled on the benchmark.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 186, the slp is crawling towards the benchmark at a hefty 965. The block won't let it escape.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS stalls out the system over eastern NC.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yep. That'll do. Sign me up.
  17. Carvers Gap
    GFS is a Miller A - slightly organized, but take a look at it and you will see its point.
  18. Carvers Gap
    No complaints w/ the 12z GFS.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sure. The good thing w/ a -NA0 is that it tends to shunt systems west -> east. This is a powerful block, so I think anything is on the table regarding suppression - overrunning to cold/dry.
  20. Carvers Gap
    While the Kuchera map above seems destined for the scrap heap, it does represent what "could" happen with overrunning into very, very cold air. If we want a big storm, we have to be willing to live on that boundary of dry/cold and what appears to be the GOM trying to be open for business. That storm track has shown up on modeling multiple times.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Here is the Kuchera of the 6z GFS run(again...you all know the rules about taking the GFS seriously at the moment)....
  22. Carvers Gap
    I think right now with seven days to go, there is still going to be a lot of variation. With each run new model data is added, which changes the results some. This is also the range in which modeling often "loses" systems (5-7 days). For now, we have an Arctic front rushing into the area and a slp popping on the lee side of the Apps and maybe another on the coast. Spacing could also be an issue. We have gone from almost nothing in the pattern to multiple vortices and waves - lots to juggle. With each tweek of each new vortex, it changes all of it. A Miller A, a frontal wave, overrunning...or nothing. The first three make the most since given the strength of the front to quote John.
  23. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS overrunning event(can't find a better term for the multiple waves....though tech not a 100% overrunning event)
  24. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking about that as well. If we get a snow layer, we could take a swing at some all time record lows.
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS...Yup.
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