Carvers Gap
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More likely than not...the GFS is probably mishandling the timing of the Baja low. However, none of the other models have been stellar with that area either. With one big camp calling for a lot of energy to go west of the Apps....tough for me to go against that camp. Probably have an increasingly diminishing windrow through Weds for this to adjust some. I really doubt it goes back to big snow, but hope I am wrong. The GFS standing alone(maybe some RFS and AIGFS support) rarely works out for me. I do wonder if the Euro is too amped as you noted above w/ some of its recent trends with other systems.
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Yes. It has done that with many systems this winter. I don't know if there is a window where data is missing(systems going through blind spots like the Arctic Circle or eastern Pac) or if that is just a bias. OTH, the GFS has had big time problems w/ Baja energy this winter. At one point, it tried to tap a Pacific tropical system and funnel that moisture into E TN. But with trends across several models...sure looks like a warmer system(compared to yesterday's runs) is likely.
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I should add that I would be shocked w/ a reversal. Just too many models showing the trend towards a warmer solution. However, with the Euro changing hp strength in the Plains...that could greatly affect where the phased system tracks. If the hp dives behind the system, it cuts. If it stays over the top...it might force the bulk of the energy east of the Apps w/ only a shadow pressing west. For E TN...this looks like snow to sleet to ice to rain. For now(like right this minute), it looks like 8-12 hours of frozen precip at TRI. Downslope effects are showing up on some models for sure in the Foothills - so, usual caveats apply. When I see big changes on modeling(MT hp on the 6z Euro), that usually tells me that things are not worked out. The GFS consistency gives me some weak(very weak) hope, and the 6z GEFS snow axis actually shifted south at 6z. It is possible the Euro is too amped....but the AIFS supports the Euro as does the GEM and GEM-para. Let's see what this hurricane hunter data reveals. I think the big error(and this error has been present on modeling all winter long) is trying to hold that Baja low in place too long or string it out. More often than not, that low has been poorly modeled up until about 3-4 days before reality. We have also seen energy transfer from the Rockies back to San Francisco on modeling(not this particular setup to clarify) - didn't happen. The Southwest has been a big problem for modeling this winters. Oddly, that Baja bias has been across modeling. One thing I will add...any time a Baja low is involved, the Euro struggles...until it doesn't. Then, it locks in.
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For sure on the phase. And I agree. If it phases....the hp strength is minimal in terms of importance. However, how they phase will be impacted greatly by how much that hp presses. A stronger hp will suppress that system. Check out Steve's comments in the SE mountain thread. He does a better job of explaining it. I lean Euro, because it generally is a better model....and the gfs has been bad since Thanksgiving. I don't think hurricane hunter data went in last night. It looks like some data will be added today and tomorrow. We may see a big jump (could be good...could be bad)once that data is inputed.
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@Maggie Valley Steveposted this in the SE Mountains Thread which @Met1985mentioned. Great disco in that thread BTW. Sounds to me like they were just moving planes around last night. Today and tomorrow, those guys get down to business. So I got some clarity from Jeremy DeHart on Twitter. Jeremy is an AF Reserve Meteorologist for the Hurricane Hunter missions for many years now. He stated that last night mission was a reposition flight back to Keesler. The mission today will sample the Baja low with additional missions sampling the Gulf tomorrow.
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Below is a comparison of the 6z GFS(left) and 6z Euro(right). The differences over the Plains are noticeable. The Plains hp on the GFS is stronger and more to the Northwest. The Euro is digging the hp behind the storm - amps the slp in front. The hp in New England is more expansive on the GFS and blocks the slp from coming north...supresses the slp in the mid-South. Here are two more things I am looking at. Let's compare trends within the same model. If the GFS is going to be insistent on the Montana high being strong, is it actually maintaining its solution from run-to-run? 6z GFS(left) and 0z GFS (right). The GFS weakens the Montana hp(for lack of a better term), but only slightly and the portion of the hp is pretty much the same. The more that hp weakens, the more room is available for the slp to slip north. We need a banana high which is continuous. The New England high really stays about the same in terms of strength and position. IMPORTANT: Now, this might sound like splitting hairs, because it is. But the placement and strength of the two areas of hp is affecting synoptics big time. In turn, that is affecting p-types. I tend to lean towards the Euro as it is just a better model at this range. But...the 6z RFS surface pressure(not in this post) looks like the 6z GFS, and that gives me pause. The Euro having pretty significant differences w/ high strength and position(from 0z to 6z) in the Plains also gives me pause. The fact the 6z Euro brought back a stronger Montana hp...cannot be ignored, but it might not matter if the STJ pulse stays strong.
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I think with that Euro setup as is...it is going to try to split those two highs and head for the Lakes. What I can't know for sure is if the Euro is trending back stronger w/ the hp to the Northwest. The differences, even after that slide, grow pretty massively. The GFS is just weaker (but trending stronger) w/ the STJ pulse. I would really, really like to know which models got the bulk of the hurricane date overnight, and if one model didn't get it. To me the hp differences in the Plains look like a data error or absence of it...I just don't know which model is handling that hp over the Plains correctly. That feature is drastically affecting the overall synoptics of the storm.
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6z left. 0z right. 11mb difference(increase) in hp over Montana. Notice the system at 6z doesn't get as far north on this frame. It eventually gets there, but those are pretty big changes. HUGE difference between a 1028hp and 1039.
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Have to go further into the run.
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That loss of hp was seen across several models at 0z...and now poof...it is back on many. Trying to dig through this and see what the trend might be and what caused the iteration overnight.
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FWIW, the 6z RFS model which John uses is in the 6z GFS camp(shaky, shaky camp). It also handles the hp to the northwest of the system differently than the 0z Euro, but similarly to the 6z Euro. What the Euro is doing is basically settling into a seam between to highs to the north, one over New England and one over Montana. IF the Montana high is strong and bridges over to the New England high....the system slides on across. The 0z Euro completely lost the hp to the northwest of the storm...returned at 6z. I don't know. I am guessing that we are getting better sampling of the northern features as they get closer to us.
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I mean....the differences w/ hp over the top(especially nw of the system) from 0z to 6z are pretty startling. It was gone at 0z and is back on 6z. I have no idea why it wasn't there at 0z, and no idea why it is back at 6z.
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Substantial differences between the 0z and 6z Euro in regards to high pressure over the top. At 0z it lost it. At 6z, it's back. Not sure that changes the surface, but bizarre to see that big of a change from run to run. I'll post a thumbnail here in just a sec of the differences - majorly different. Probably why the 6z run was forced a hair south.
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I got you at 20" so far....HH FTW???
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Should be a good run. Slider.
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At 72, the surface pressure configuration is nearly identical to 18z.
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At 57 a big 1055 hp is pushing into eastern Montana and western N Dakota. Something may try to cut, but that dude is gonna have some say in that.
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I started using it after your rec. Good model.
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A little trick on wxbell...switch to mslp surface pressure and use the mouse over comparison. You can see the surface pressure about 10 mins before the surface output catches up.
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The 0z GFS is running...for those of you watching for trouble, post it here. You should be able to see differences almost right away.
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To clarify, I was comparing to 12z which is the last full run. The 18z didn't go all the way out. 0z is south of 12z.
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The 0z ICON flirted w/ a true coastal cyclogenesis. Probably some reflection west of the Apps, but the depth of cold would not allow much liquid. Severe winter storm as is. Totals are on Pivotal.
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0z ICON is on the board w/ a southerly trend.
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Ain't no way in hell I am using the NAM at range - good or bad. Haha.
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Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley. AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four. The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track. The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north. The problem is ice and lots of it. If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs. I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up. It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better. I have nod idea which, could be additional data or the absence of data.
