Carvers Gap

My only caveat would be that modeling has struggled this winter. Right now though, this is at day 4-5 for far western areas of this forum. By tomorrow evening or Tuesday morning, short range models should begin to have this for portions of Arkansas.

If this actually occurs, the EURO AIFS and its ensembles had this days before other modeling did......

The 12z EPS has temps thirty degrees BN (over TRI and E TN...cold over the entire forum area and EC) from ten days out which is almost unheard of from that model. Again, I have my doubts, but just reporting what I see. The winter which shall not be named as an analog....is trying to sneak into the photo.

The 12z Euro ensemble individuals show strong support for the deterministic run.

It is again worth noting that wx models have done a much better job of identifying cold fronts during the last few weeks, but they have been over-doing cold almost across the board.

Just grabbing some maps. The temps are also a big story. Modeling is still picking up a sharp cold shot right around 300 which is after the rain/snow/ice/sleet we are looking at. Some of the seven day temp departures, undoubtedly enhanced by potential snow cover, are impressive. I also added the accumulation maps for the Euro run.

Yeah, man. We want none of that. The cold air looks vey likely. The wild card is whether the STJ gets its act together. We have seen "false positives" this winter with it. Like I said above though, this event is within five days for folks in Arkansas...and almost four.

The concern, and we have talked about this for at least a week...is that this potential cold air mass will form a gradient boundary which presses west to east. The cold air will submarine under warm air, and that creates the conditions needed for ice. We dodged one window this past week as the STJ didn't attack the base of the trough. The STJ looks to show some life right now at the worst possible time - and you all know I like winter, but not ice. Again, a lot will change and that should be noted in all caps. But it sure looks increasingly likely that somewhere between Birmingham and Lexington is gonna see a winter storm and maybe a bad one.

The 12z GEFS has at the first round of light mix into west TN by early Friday....and waves of rain, sleet, snow, and ice persist until the following Sunday - like ten days of waves along the gradient. No idea if it is right. I am just the messenger on this.

The ice amounts from the 12z Euro are pretty staggering. I want NONE of that - nada, zip, zero. Here are the 12z deterministic runs for next weekend. Things are going to change with this almost assuredly. Keep in mind though, Arkansas has this storm within five days now. Also, the frames below are only snapshots. The GEM frame is the second wave. Most models had a couple of waves.

Honestly, the cold following that type of event on the 12z Euro would be rough, rough.

The 12z Euro is going for a glacier in North Carolina. I have seen this before in the early 2000-2010. Monster run.

Right around 240, the 12z Euro hits us again.

Bout time for the hot donuts sign...here we go.

At 162, the 12z Euro has gone pretty much bonkers.

Well, the 12z Euro is gonna have a say it appears!!!!

12z AIFS EPS...some BIG dogs.

Ensemble members....The 12z GEFS is almost universally KY. The 12z AIFS EPS is very much the state of TN. After yesterday's basketball game, that makes me a little nervous.

So far at 12z...and this looks like an over-running event to me at least preliminarily. We have seen these events during recent La Nina winters, but mainly to my west. This is more of a QBO La Nina winter look.

The 12z GEFS does not provide much support to the deterministic run at 12z, but...plenty of support exists for a slider over much of the forum area, and maybe more than one. The 12z GEM is the best cast - so far. I drops 5-10" over most of the forum. We have said more than once this winter that it resembled 95-96' (light) in many ways. That winter kind of arrived a bit after the mid point.

The 12z AIFS Euro is why we need the GFS south of us. Need that blend! That said the 12z AIFS EURO EPS....is nice for the entire forum.

The 12z GEM and GFS runs are excellent runs. The GFS has tended to trend north with everything this winter. The GEM is just a mauler. Right where we want them right now. There is a very good met on Volquest who is saying next weekend is showing up strongly on ensembles as a winter storm for E TN(which is where he lives...that could encompass much more area...kind of his backyard post).

For kicks and giggles. The 18z AIFS Euro EPS....the bulk of that is after the 23rd. This is definitely on the high end of ensembles. There are other models with much less. I generally like to look at these for storm tracks. Interestingly, the Carolina storm track....most of that doesn't fall w/ the ongoing storm.

I have said that I like the GEPS - para. Pretty big over-running event on that model - several waves. Rain, ice, sleet, snow. Yes, it is 240 and it will likely change, but....this showed up at 18z on other models.

When you begin to see system south of the forum...that generally is not a bad thing. Need room for that to trend north.