Carvers Gap

From MRX on FB...great write up: [TECHNICAL POST] Hi everyone! We have read your comments & questions the last few weeks about the wind we have all been enduring so far this year and wanted to share some data & insight into how this wind compares historically and some technical meteorology info that we can use to see how anomalous it is. The line chart is # of wind advisories & high wind warnings issued for Eastern Tennessee, the mountains, and our counties in NC and VA. This archive dates back to 2005, so it’s not an exhaustive climatology. This weather office has indeed issued an unusual number of wind products so far this year. The second image contains two wind roses. These are a bit more technical, but the basics of them are they display wind data by showing where the wind comes from and how strong that wind is. The plot on the left is climatology for Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport from 1970 to 2023 constrained to just January 1 – May 3 of every year. The right plot is just this year’s data. There are two important takeaways from these wind charts. 1. The average wind recorded at Knoxville McGhee Tyson since Jan 1 is the same as the long term climatology, roughly 7.5 mph 2. This year’s wind has been more extreme versus long term climatology. That is we have experienced a greater period of calm winds and a greater period of high winds. You can see this reflected in the wind rose centers where they show the Calm % and the dark red/maroon bars are larger in this year’s plot (right) than they are in the long term climatology (left). The next logical step is to ask “why”. Best guess is the active pattern that existed out west (if anyone has seen the news about California snow) has translated to a good setup for windy days for us. The last chart is the most technical plot of the three, it shows where low and high pressure systems have been anomalously frequent over the same areas of the country. In the blue and purple areas, multiple low pressure storm systems have tracked through those areas and in the green and yellow areas, multiple high pressure ridges have tracked. Between a low and a high, a pressure gradient is formed. For us meteorologists, this plot hints that we have been in a setup this year that has allowed for strong pressure gradients over Tennessee, and that gradient is what drives the winds we’ve been seeing. That same image also explains why we did not see a snowy winter - all of the good setups for snow were out west! So, in conclusion we have indeed experienced some unusually strong and persistent winds here in the Tennessee valley. While it averages out to normal, our windy days have been windier and our light wind days have been calmer. The good news is we do experience a more calm wind-wise pattern in the summer months owing to a different climatological pattern that doesn't allow for these strong pressure gradients to set up over Tennessee. However, summer thunderstorms can always deliver strong wind gusts in their own right!

Nice stretch of early summer weather inbound. Man, today has been beautiful.

Took a trip to Philmont during the late 80s and got caught in a canyon as lightning just hammered our area(fortunately we were not on the ridges). Our campsite had a tree blown to smithereens. We had several instances of lightning during our week long trip. Unfortunately that summer, several scouts would perish due to lightning strikes throughout the course of the summer. Storms there come up quickly and are fierce in New Mexico!!!

That is wild. Not unheard of, but one of the many reasons why tracking weather is interesting. I was sitting at a track meet yesterday in 25mph sustained winds. LOL. We have run meets in 40 degree temps with drizzle, 85F temps, and yesterday the wind tempest(within three weeks of each other and at the same place)!!!

I am noticing our higher elevations have rain/snow mix for tonight on the higher ridges(even Roan Mountain City...might be a good day to check web cams tomorrow for RM). I was hardening off my tomato plants, and getting ready to put them in the garden...guess I had better wait!!! Those mid-80s during early April alway fool me.

WSWs posted for West Virginia? Am I seeing that right? Upper Peninsula in Michigan as well(less newsworthy at that latitude).....May 2nd.

April finished only 0.8F above normal after two days at 85+. Overnight lows were actually below normal which is a testament to the number of days without rainfall - only 2.64" of rain for the entire month of April at TRI. Dry spells equal cold nights quite often here in NE TN. The La Nina hangover is upon us. Hopefully, we see rainfall pick-up by mid-summer. The Mountain West has really warmed up as places in western WY and NE Utah set records for seasonal snowfall.

Snow fell at 5,500' last night(just a dusting on LeConte). Wind chills were projected by the crew at the Lodge to be near 0 overnight.

Whew. Going for record highs on Friday. Not a fan. Looking forward to next week.

I am moderately concerned of a spin-up on the EC(tropical or hybrid). If that occurs, it could usher very cold air west of the Apps. It is probably a red herring in modeling, but it has my attention. My stuff is going in the ground during the last week of April if warm temps continue. Ground temps, even with a cold snap, are unexpectedly decent. The lack of rain has helped warm up temps. So, in terms of frost, I doubt NE TN has seen its last. I am not even sure I have seen the last flake of snow IMBY which seems surreal given the late June temps we have had here! Again, likely warmth continues...but the spin-up is the concern.

Prelim winter 23-24 will be possibly a wall-to-wall torch in terms of temps. Nino outlooks are more robust than they were a few months ago for next winter. Snowfall is a big question as moderate to strong Nino winters can still have big coastals. That idea is dependent on the Nino rising to moderate-strong levels. If it is weak-moderate(I think unlikely), then we are in business. Saving grace might be a failing QBO........

Looks like a return to more seasonable conditions next weeks. Summer is just around the corner.

Feels like mid-summer today!

The 0z Euro and CMC both are showing a cut-off low over the TN valley next week. It might be feedback, but that is cold, nasty weather right there. The GFS does not have it. It has had the hot hand lately...so let's see where it goes. Again, this is NOT a winter wx post. The default for all posts until next October is rain(for those new to the site). I will state otherwise if snow is in the outlook for the valleys. That is the last caveat re: winter wx.

Gusts recorded to 61mph in TRI....every bit of that. I was driving down a four lane, and a wind gust hit a gravel driveway on the other side of the four way. It sounded like someone was throwing rocks against my car. We had to stop in Colonial Heights and help get a decent sized tree out of the road which had landed on a young woman's car. Fortunately, she was ok...but her car was a mess. The hood and windshield completely caved in. She was very fortunate.

The GEFS and EPS are showing some signs of trough amplification around the 11th of April. NO - I am not talking a snowstorm. Certainly snow showers in the mountains are not unusual for that date. At this point for those following weather with us during the "snow off season," (which is most of the year)we actually talk about weather totally unrelated to wintry stuff. For me, I watch the weather at this time of year in order to spot freezes/frosts in advance. I wasn't paying attention earlier this week, and had frost on some summer plants (new grape vines) which I was hardening off. Grape vines will survive the winter here, but those new leaves (on transplants) don't like frost. So far, so good. The leaves appeared to have survived. FWIW, I still have plants in our landscape which are shedding leaves after the December cold.

The 6z GFS is definitely depicting warm conditions for most of its run - finally spring appears that it will take hold!

Modeling doubling down that cooler than normal temps return for April after this current warm-up, and then one additional warm-up which will follow the next cool down.

I mowed the yard for the first time today where it actually needed it. I did some clean-up during late Feb where I mowed it in order to get up leaves and twigs after the big winds. I still have some dormant areas in the yard. Hollies are still dropping leaves due to December cold. My patio peach lost its blooms as did some of my blueberries(unfortunately) due to the recent cold wave. Yards should be ready to take-off now(if they haven't already). I need about 4-6 weeks of warm temps in order for the garden to be ready. Still looking at a very late planting for it.

Yeah, the mountains have had crazy cold, low temps. TRI is -8F for the past ten days w/ multiple days -10F BN. We had one day which was ~18F BN. I welcome the warmth of the next few days. I need to get some garden/yard work done. It is time for spring! Looks to me like a typical back-and-forth pattern after this warm-up. Modeling has been stellar. The MJO is looping back to phase 7 which is warm...and it is about to get warm right on time.

If they have a normal summer, the ski slopes may not lose their snow.

I think I mentioned that earlier in an post, I certainly would think so by Friday afternoon even. Record highs possible tomorrow and Friday. Pretty amazing to see the first week’s(of March) departures erased though. I am placing the above departures in the thread for future reference. Models have done exceptionally well so far. They nailed the cold shot, and they also had a decent signal for the warm weather coming up. Yesterday was also BN as well which is not reflected on the chart above.

TRI so far for the month.

Minus 1-2 more cold shots, I think we can finally see spring revealing itself in both the MJO and some LR modeling. The CPC is going warm for April, and I welcome the change! The 6-8 day and 8-14 day forecasts are now warm on the CPC sites. I think we still see some sharp downturns, and I am not quite as bullish on the warmth....but it has to warm-up at some point, right? Bring on spring...because summer lurks right around that corner. Spring may be short this year!

They can just use spy balloon data as backup.