Carvers Gap
-
Posts
15,659 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming. The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold. GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks. My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season. Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it. His analogs have been showing it. He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong. The reason I say that? When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not. Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right. A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way. For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time. So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold! I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month!
-
@nrgjeff that is the only post you're are allowed to make for November. LOL
-
This is what happens when Kansas beats Oklahoma. Things just go to crap - the universe is out of balance.
-
I don't think that has happened here to clarify. But I know we sync with Google....so, I am usually super careful if things get too dry. That's just me, and maybe that caution is warranted on my part. Honestly, it is such a big story right now...talking about it is likely unavoidable so I don't want folks to think it would be frowned upon if discussed.
-
Like IT@G’s thoughts, LC doesn’t feel like this is a normally behaving El Niño. I need to go back and re-read it. I was in a hurry when I read it. I am not big on a cold December, but there are a cluster of El Niño’s which have cold December’s...and some of those are the record dry September/October analogs. Those analogs aren’t a great match for one reason or another, but I found the possible correlation interesting.
-
I think you nailed it when you said that active hurricane season is wrecking havoc on modeling and the EC wx pattern. I think that is more likely a product of a warm Atlantic basin than it is a Nina hangover. That we have not had more landfalling hurricanes is probably more a product of Nino climatology. NE TN is a place where, once drought is established, it can be very difficult to break...same thing re: a flooding pattern. Cosgrove has a great write-up for winter...maybe implied that by late November we maybe head towards a more traditional Nino pattern. Though he seems to think this will be a less traditional Nino winter where December might turn colder than many think - that is off the top of my head so anyone feel free to correct that if it isn't correct.
-
Southwest Virginia is dealing with this tonight. Again, I hate to say much else. Scannerfood on FB is a good follow for local coverage.
-
Yeah, I am definitely concerned. I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought. I know you are careful as well. I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts. The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).
-
Drought breeds more drought. That much I am certain of.... Actually, the top two years for TRI in terms of September/October drought are El Ninos. My earlier post re: Oct/Sept drought is in this thread or the winter spec thread. I think(off the top of my head) three of the top 5 years are El Nino. Fall drought, while certainly characteristic of La Niña (edit), is not always La Nina. Severe drought during Fall IMBY is about 50/50 La Nina and El Nino for TRI. If anything the lack of gradient in the Pacific is the likely culprit. Lots of AN SSTs. The amount of rainfall from this past April to August is representative of El Nino and maybe also the snowfall at Mammoth during the second half of last winter. As we noted in our earlier discussion, there are probably multiple drivers. If we had a La Nina hangover, this summer would have been hot and dry - it wasn't. It was rainy and BN for months on end. Maybe the east based NAO (which should revert to basin wide) is causing the drought? Again, I don't think it is La Nina, but I could be wrong. What is your reasoning behind that? I would be interested to know. Also, Cosgrove's winter forecast is out. What did you think? Cansips seasonal maps are finally out - textbook Nino progression. Likely that is due to analog driven algorithms, but that is what is shown. Those analogs may or may not be right.
-
Does anyone have any of the November seasonal maps that they are willing to share? WxBell has not updated, and I haven't browsed Twitter this week. Always great to have Ohio people passing through! We have family near Canton.
-
Only about two more weeks, then the first winter thread goes up. Be thinking about whether you are called to fire up that thread....bring some good mojo. Whoever started the 14-15 thread, that may be who it needs to be.
-
New seasonal models begin to roll tomorrow.
-
Jeff is handing out Halloween candy like he owns stock in Target!
-
LR modeling really likes the idea of slp feeding into a strong cold front. The 12z Euro is another variation.
-
The Euro control was super similar. It actually had two clippers - LOL.
-
@Holston_River_Rambler, the 12z GFS is maybe GIF worthy?
-
I think better for this end of the forum. The 12z GFS was interesting for sure.
-
Thanks for the update! How do you like that service(models? indices?)? Very cool. Very sharp, near-reversal. I wonder if it descends again, or this is part of a pattern changer per term? Neutral is tolerable.
-
The GFS is Happy Hour every run right now. LOL.
-
Boone, how are they getting the most recent PDO numbers? It is almost like a daily index. I can only find data which is released at the end of each month. Is it pay data or government access data? Yep, those 1990s Nino analogs are nasty for the most part!!!! My main concern is the dry wx which is is plaguing the region. But....those dry Sept/Oc patterns often turned cold for winter - if we can actually say that is a true correlation. I do like the storm tracks which are showing up on the latest GFS runs. As we get closer to November, those tracks do have some correlation - lots of coastals modeled. No idea if they will verify.
-
Yeah, I think they all are fairly complex even at short range. Seasonal forecasting at range is generally a crap shoot. Generally getting the long wave pattern correct by using ENSO state has some rigor, but still....Even during projected warm winters, cold patterns can hit and hold. I guess it is part of what makes this hobby fun and a bit maddening.
-
Not getting into any of that. Just sharing PDO data which is why I highlighted it. I just normally don't like to take comments out of context. The PDO data is what is interesting.
-
Heads up: New PDO information placed in winter spec thread...
-
From @Terpeastt(link for full discussion): Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens! One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous. -3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016.
-
Yes, the PDO I have beaten like a dead horse this fall and past summer. LOL. The MJO will have a say I am nearly certain. The Aleutians are tricky. The La Nina Aleutian 500mb high generally portends to a warm EC....but not always. Some years, there is a stalwart Aleutian 500mb low which is present. But yes, an Aleutian low is a good thing. A lot of the aformentioned Pac features are also highly dependent on how the Atlantic plays out, and how Pac features teleconnect to HL blocking over the Atlantic and Greenland. @John1122, is a big fan of EPO/PNA ridging. @nrgjefflooks at HP maybe in eastern Siberia during winter....Jeff, feel free to clarify. For me, I just don't like a GOA surface low which never leaves. What I like to see is a 500mb low east of Hawaii at mid latitudes which often creates split flow. Also, Jax's recurving cyclone east of Japan is a winner as well. @jaxjagman, you can clarify that. John also mentioned the strat being disrupted early....that can lead to good things at our latitude if it doesn't go to Asia. Generally, if the strat is getting hammered...big time cold will show up on the map(often in the wrong place) and then dump west(if it gets to NA at all). Generally strat chances are this: if in doubt, it goes to asia; next choice is NA; next choice is Mountain West: last choice is eastern NA.
