Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,245

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is how we get a warm pattern from a cold look...I don't think it is correct. As JB points out, it has problems when very cold air is in southwest Canada - feedback.
  2. Carvers Gap
    30day 500 map. Lots of good on that map if you like extended winter. Davis Straits - check. Aleutians - check. PNA/EPO - check. Storm track - check.
  3. Carvers Gap
    What kind of actual melted water precip are we talking? That is just an insane amount of water. If that was rain, that would be a monsoon.
  4. Carvers Gap
    So, maybe the short story is this, we had a bright, bright sunshiny day on Feb 2. You know who saw his shadow IMBY.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I had all of these on deck last night, but wanted to see 24 more hours of model runs. There is not guarantee any of the above is reality, but modeling is leaning strong towards cold(maybe very cold) solutions. One thing which is showing up right now is a VERY strong -NAO which tends to be colder(less likely to hook into the SE ridge) during later winter. When we start to see California get slammed, that is a decidedly Nino signal. Maybe we are about to see the final breaths of Nino, but it is the perfect time of the year for it.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Sorry for the mass dump, I have been sitting on these a few days. This is the Euro control 7d map for the 19-26th. That might be a bit extreme! 7 day departures at -23F below normal (departures and not actual temps)!!! LOL. But models have been keying on this timeframe for several weeks. Now that we are starting to see a bit better, I feel more comfortable with the share. Does this verify? IDK, but they are fun to look at....
  7. Carvers Gap
    Below are the lead analogs to the extended maps. I "think the time to watch will be Feb20-28 and possible beyond. Day 8-14 CPC analogs 19680210 19780222 19840302 19770204 19680228 19800210 20050302 19700211 19580217 19950205
  8. Carvers Gap
    The five days leading up to the above maps d10-15....all global ensembles.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Here you go, folks. 30 day maps of both precip and temps. Let's lock this in, and get to tracking in a few days. No idea if this happens, but we really can't ask for a better look. This is well within the range of normal ensembles, and not just ext stuff.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies ext are pretty much frigid once this pattern matures. Really can't ask for a better look. I am not saying it is going to happen, but man.......................
  11. Carvers Gap
    Normally, I don't post 384 maps, but the ensembles are honking at 12z. It's on.....
  12. Carvers Gap
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think Feb 20-28 is gonna be a wee bit chilly.... @John1122, I think we are gonna need a Mammoth update from you. Whoa.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I will wait for 12z and the afternoon weeklies and maybe make a post later today. Very good overnight trends.
  15. Carvers Gap
    All global ensembles are on track for NA to cool down to BN temps by mid-Feb and then hold for several weeks. I am sure there is some fluctuation within the overall 500 pattern, but that is a really, really good look. The 0z Euro control is quite cold. Is it going to be cold enough to snow? Time will tell. BN temps in Feb don't equal BN temps in January.
  16. Carvers Gap
    CPC MJO plot update....the MJO appears to be set to take the tour through cold phases. They’re could be a loop in 7, but most global ensembles (notably the EMON), take the MJO through cold phases. I suspect we see modeling adjust rapidly to that trend if it is real - and it should be. We will be fighting daylight and sun angle, but looks like winter is gonna go one last round.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And to tag on to my recent post and in the them of Monopoly....Bank error in your favor. Collect $200.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think I have made a mistake. What I thought was a change in continuity - is not. It is phase 8 to phase 1 w/ AN heights over the Mountain West and norther Plains. The model is progressing as planned. That also means the 12z EPS was in phase 8/1...good sign.
  19. Carvers Gap
    There is a pretty epic cold pattern on a lot of modeling....but the fail potential here, and I must warn you, is much higher than the mid-January set-up. But if the cold verifies...great pattern potentially. If it doesn't....that is just the way it goes. So, we wait.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I have a bunch of slides, but I think the MJO is so conflicted that I am hesitant to post some of the extreme cold showing up. I think (and a lot of modeling supports this) that the MJO rotates through phase 8....but there is a school of thought that it dodges 8 and crosses back into the warm phases w/ barely any time in the cold phases. We have a decent majority showing cold phases of the MJO....but the EMON is iffy. I also didn't like the end of the 12z EPS today as it broke continuity....and looked like the MJO flipped warm. So, I am going to play my cards close today....and look for trends over the next 48 hours. The CPC 3-4 week forecast has BN temps, but beware.... The GMON MJO.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Just chilling until this gets into range. Pretty severe cold shot showing up on lr ext modeling from say Feb 18-25. It is very apparent on both the CFSv2 and Weeklies control. That looks like consequences from the SSW from January. Crazy looking pattern. The Euro control has nearly two feet of snow over TRI.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies (mean surface temps) are quite cold. As for the SSW, the MJO rotating back into 4-6 is an outside concern, but that has been brewing for a few days. The MJO has been in error most time this winter when it does anything but take the cold and warm tours. Could be a loop back into 6 early on, but after that should be good. The strat split may not help/hurt us until early or mid March.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control (weeklies) snowfall map is significant.
  24. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerbeat me to it. Just too good not to have in the main thread.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19800207 19530209 19650228 19680207 20040209 19770211 19780216 19700209 19860206 20060207
×
×
  • Create New...