Carvers Gap

MRX just mentioned on social media a chance to view the northern lights.

I spoke with our catastrophic storm assessor (he was working my roof several years back)...he said he handled an EF-4 or 5 maybe in Indiana or Illinois years back. He said softball sized hail had been driven through the side of cars and into the side of the engine block(dents were evidence). State Farm covered 25-30K in damages for us (July 27, 2014) due to baseball and softball size hail. It wasn't wind driven, but it knocked holes in my gutters and lawn furniture. Hundreds of dents in our truck and van along w/ broken windows. It sounded like bricks falling on the house. Our chimney vent still have dents in them. It was the worst sound I have ever heard. You could hear the damage in the neighborhood as it fell. My sister's house lost their vinyl siding(due to hail) in that storm or the one a few year prior. So, heart felt condolences to the folks in the area where the large hail hit.

NWS-MRX is posting some photos now of the Morristown damage. Looks like 2-4" wind driven hail. And let me tell you from experience(not this year knock on wood), that sucks.

That t-storm complex damaged a school in Hamblin according to the Times-Tribune. NO injuries were reported though some students have had to be relocated as they assess damage. https://www.citizentribune.com/news/update-severe-weather-blasts-through-morristown-surrounding-areas/article_29233634-0d50-11ef-b9bd-87889de4b563.html East side of Cherokee Lake did experience golfball to baseball size hail.

I am not liking this.

Blizzard warnings in the western Plains of Montana.

You can just take it to the bank...when I put the warm season plants in my garden, it is going to head for BN temps. Just take it to the bank.

So, the cold snap in mid-Jan wiped out my grape vines(entire plant). I just replanted today. They were new, so they were more fragile....but man.

TRI finished with about 70-75% of normal rainfall for the month of April and +2.1F. Yesterday morning it rained. When I mowed by midday the moisture was almost gone on the grass. Not good to be BN normal w/ precip during spring. Hopefully, that turns around. Lately, ext LR modeling is really, really struggling IMO. That said, if one just uses ENSO state, wx patterns have been pretty consistent w/ a transition to La Nina.

SER land!!! I like it. We may have to pass this winter by tracking storms in the Mountain West.

It appears that summer is here. I don't think those Weeklies(which were cool) are gonna work out. Looks warm for the foreseeable future. Summer has started early, and that often means a VERY hot July-October. TRI is only +1.7 but it has felt much warmer than that. Late April to October is likely summer this year. Hope I am wrong on that.

In NE TN, most La Nina patterns are dry. With the IO and Nina potentially being out of sync, I am not sure what that yields in terms of precip here. It seems like some La Nina patterns have been soakers here, but lately, more dry. I do think the pattern might be much more variable than I had originally thought re: summer. I do think a good chunk of fall and winter will be much AN in terms of temps. I would suspect fall turns very dry. La Nina across our forum can produce quite different results.

I reactivated my WxBell account after a brief hiatus. LR seasonal outlooks are not showing a torch quite yet which is contrary to my thought process. Now, the warm spring fits La Nina along with BN rainfall. Next winter looks like a torch...no easy way to put it, but that is a long way off and things will likely change. That said, this summer doesn't look as warm as I thought. HOWEVER, if the BN rainfall continues(check regional airport to see if that applies to you or just look out the window)....heat will likely build into those areas.

Areas of frost possible tonight.

I do think for my winter ideas (24-25'), I am going to use IO forecasts as part of the overall equation, and give it fairly heavy weight. It has been driving the MJO during recent winters. IO/MJ, ENSO, and PDO will have the heaviest weight. NAO will have some weight, but it is nearly impossible to predict at this range.